Yesterday 1-1 +0.32 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 33-53 (-10.97 units)
Kansas City + 1.90 over OAKLAND
Three factors figure into this equation and the first one is value. Sure the A’s are the superior squad, however, that doesn’t exclude the fact that the better team doesn’t always win and we get a favorable pitching match-up here. Next we have Barry Zito who has been laboring big time all year. In fact, Zito comes into this one with a 4.79 ERA on the year and a 5.12 ERA over his past three starts. Over his last six starts, Zito has been effective just twice, once against the White Sox and once against the Tigers. The Mariners, who are last in the majors in runs scored, torched Zito in back to back games recently to the tune of 10 earned runs over 11 innings. Zito is just not right and does not deserve this billing. Zack Greinke is a keeper and while his ERA and won/loss record is not impressive, it’s also extremely misleading. Greinke has started 15 games for the Royals and had a stretch of eight consecutive quality starts in which he did not allow more then three earned runs in any of those. In fact, he’s had just three starts all year that weren’t of the quality variety. His ERA is so high because in two of the three games that he wasn’t effective, he allowed 16 earned runs in just three innings of work. Greinke can change speeds with the best of them and most importantly, he throws strikes. In fact, he’s walked just 17 hitters all year in 89 frames. Lastly, despite having a horrible year, the Royals have done quite well against lefties with a 15-17 record. Line is a bit out of whack and we’re confidently stepping in. Play Kansas City +1.90 (Risking 1.6 units).
Detroit +1.30 over ANAHEIM
What’s unbelievable is not the dramatic turnaround by these Tigers but that Aaron Sele has just one loss in 20 starts. Sele has been the beneficiary of huge run support and as a result he’s been able to avoid losing. Fact is, this guy is not a good pitcher and likely won’t be on the Angels active roster should they make it to the post-season. Sele walks (38) as many as he strikes out (40) and that’s the first sign of a disaster waiting to happen. He’s also allowed 112 hits in 98 innings and over his past three starts, covering just 16 innings, Sele has surrendered 27 hits, 12 earned runs and six walks while striking out just three batters. Additionally, the Tigers are 37-30 against righties and should get plenty of opportunities to touch home plate here. Bottom line here is that when we’re offered a take-back against pitchers of this caliber we’ll gladly accept it. Play Detroit +1.30 (Risking 1.6 units).
Colorado +1.10 over PITTSBURGH
Pirates are just 8-16 against southpaws and will face a good one here in Joe Kennedy. Kennedy has allowed just 104 hits in 105 innings and what makes that even more impressive is the fact that he pitches half his games at that launching pad in Denver. Furthermore, the Pirates have never faced him and that also gives us an edge. Kennedy has a road ERA of 3.87 and has been consistent all year. He’s averaging close to seven innings per start on the road. Josh Fogg has proven to be extremely hittable all year. In fact, in 114 innings Fogg has surrendered 133 hits and his home ERA is near five. Rockies are playing good ball at the moment and are now 4-2 on their current road trip. They’ve also won 13 of their past 20 away from Coors and absolutely have a great chance to add to those totals here. Play Colorado +1.10 (Risking 1.6 units).
St. Louis +1.25 over ATLANTA
Not often are we offered a price on the Cardinals and when we are it’s advisable to take a close look. Danny Haren will make just his second start of the year, however, he’s no stranger to that role, he’s made 15 in his career. Desperate for starting pitching last year, the Cards rushed Haren to the majors in late June after only eight starts at the Triple-A level. After picking up his first major league victory with a strong six-inning performance against Kevin Brown and the Dodgers on July 19, the former second-round draft pick had mixed results the rest of the way. St. Louis won only four of his 14 starts. Haren's herky-jerky delivery and deceiving arm angle makes his stuff difficult to pick up. However, hitters can adjust to his release point, and he needs to enhance his repertoire. His fastball tops out in the low 90s and he showed a promising change, cutter and splitter. Now that the Cardinals have had the luxury of excellent starting pitching, Haren has been allowed to progress at the rate that he should have been allowed to last year. John Thompson will start for the Braves. Thompson, despite a 9-7 record, has allowed 158 hits in 138 innings and will face the NL’s most potent offensive team. Furthermore, the Cardinals are 39-19 on the road and any taking back anything with this live pup has got to be considered good strategy. Play St. Louis +1.25 (Risking 1.6 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 33-53 (-10.97 units)
Kansas City + 1.90 over OAKLAND
Three factors figure into this equation and the first one is value. Sure the A’s are the superior squad, however, that doesn’t exclude the fact that the better team doesn’t always win and we get a favorable pitching match-up here. Next we have Barry Zito who has been laboring big time all year. In fact, Zito comes into this one with a 4.79 ERA on the year and a 5.12 ERA over his past three starts. Over his last six starts, Zito has been effective just twice, once against the White Sox and once against the Tigers. The Mariners, who are last in the majors in runs scored, torched Zito in back to back games recently to the tune of 10 earned runs over 11 innings. Zito is just not right and does not deserve this billing. Zack Greinke is a keeper and while his ERA and won/loss record is not impressive, it’s also extremely misleading. Greinke has started 15 games for the Royals and had a stretch of eight consecutive quality starts in which he did not allow more then three earned runs in any of those. In fact, he’s had just three starts all year that weren’t of the quality variety. His ERA is so high because in two of the three games that he wasn’t effective, he allowed 16 earned runs in just three innings of work. Greinke can change speeds with the best of them and most importantly, he throws strikes. In fact, he’s walked just 17 hitters all year in 89 frames. Lastly, despite having a horrible year, the Royals have done quite well against lefties with a 15-17 record. Line is a bit out of whack and we’re confidently stepping in. Play Kansas City +1.90 (Risking 1.6 units).
Detroit +1.30 over ANAHEIM
What’s unbelievable is not the dramatic turnaround by these Tigers but that Aaron Sele has just one loss in 20 starts. Sele has been the beneficiary of huge run support and as a result he’s been able to avoid losing. Fact is, this guy is not a good pitcher and likely won’t be on the Angels active roster should they make it to the post-season. Sele walks (38) as many as he strikes out (40) and that’s the first sign of a disaster waiting to happen. He’s also allowed 112 hits in 98 innings and over his past three starts, covering just 16 innings, Sele has surrendered 27 hits, 12 earned runs and six walks while striking out just three batters. Additionally, the Tigers are 37-30 against righties and should get plenty of opportunities to touch home plate here. Bottom line here is that when we’re offered a take-back against pitchers of this caliber we’ll gladly accept it. Play Detroit +1.30 (Risking 1.6 units).
Colorado +1.10 over PITTSBURGH
Pirates are just 8-16 against southpaws and will face a good one here in Joe Kennedy. Kennedy has allowed just 104 hits in 105 innings and what makes that even more impressive is the fact that he pitches half his games at that launching pad in Denver. Furthermore, the Pirates have never faced him and that also gives us an edge. Kennedy has a road ERA of 3.87 and has been consistent all year. He’s averaging close to seven innings per start on the road. Josh Fogg has proven to be extremely hittable all year. In fact, in 114 innings Fogg has surrendered 133 hits and his home ERA is near five. Rockies are playing good ball at the moment and are now 4-2 on their current road trip. They’ve also won 13 of their past 20 away from Coors and absolutely have a great chance to add to those totals here. Play Colorado +1.10 (Risking 1.6 units).
St. Louis +1.25 over ATLANTA
Not often are we offered a price on the Cardinals and when we are it’s advisable to take a close look. Danny Haren will make just his second start of the year, however, he’s no stranger to that role, he’s made 15 in his career. Desperate for starting pitching last year, the Cards rushed Haren to the majors in late June after only eight starts at the Triple-A level. After picking up his first major league victory with a strong six-inning performance against Kevin Brown and the Dodgers on July 19, the former second-round draft pick had mixed results the rest of the way. St. Louis won only four of his 14 starts. Haren's herky-jerky delivery and deceiving arm angle makes his stuff difficult to pick up. However, hitters can adjust to his release point, and he needs to enhance his repertoire. His fastball tops out in the low 90s and he showed a promising change, cutter and splitter. Now that the Cardinals have had the luxury of excellent starting pitching, Haren has been allowed to progress at the rate that he should have been allowed to last year. John Thompson will start for the Braves. Thompson, despite a 9-7 record, has allowed 158 hits in 138 innings and will face the NL’s most potent offensive team. Furthermore, the Cardinals are 39-19 on the road and any taking back anything with this live pup has got to be considered good strategy. Play St. Louis +1.25 (Risking 1.6 units).
