Balt +117 over Oak (IIS) (risk 3 units) - In this matchup we have the home team listed as the underdog despite having a comparable starter, a superior bullpen, and the better offense. In addition, the O's have destroyed righthanders all year (5.73 runs/gm), whereas the A's have struggled against them (0.5 runs/game less vs righties than lefties). The kicker here is home plate ump, Mark Wegner, who has been one of the biggest "homers" his entire umping career. Home teams have compiled a 113-75 record over Wegner's 7 year stint in the majors - a winning percentage of over 60%.
Atlanta +116 over SD (pinny) (risk 3 units) - The hottest team in baseball over the last month and a half, using it's top pitcher who hasn't lost since the middle of May - as the UNDERDOG?? Gimme some uh dat, thank you very much. It doesn't hurt either, that behind the plate is Tim Mcclelland, who's made $100/game betters nearly 2 dimes over the past 8 seasons just by playing the road squad.
Mont +290 over SF (risk 1 unit) - This one is a pure value play. Montreal has played much better ball since the trade deadline, especially against righthanders (6.24 runs/game). If the Expos can get Schmidt out of the game, they got a decent chance vs SF's soft bullpen (4.84 ERA). Helping the Expos will be Jerry Crawford behind the plate. Crawford has been an "anti-homer" for many years, with home teams winning only 47% of the games he's umped over the last 8 seasons. Surely this elevated line is worth risking at least a unit on.
Cincy individual team total u4 -120 (oly) (risk 2 units) - I was gonna play the regular under in this one but I just don't trust Branden Claussen to shut down the high powered Cardinal offense even with the help of Doug Eddings behind the plate. It looks like oddsmakers are really compensating for Eddings unfortunately. This game would no doubt be u11 or more with an average ump behind the plate. Nevertheless, I just cannot see Cincy scoring more than 4 going against Morris AND Eddings.
Atlanta +116 over SD (pinny) (risk 3 units) - The hottest team in baseball over the last month and a half, using it's top pitcher who hasn't lost since the middle of May - as the UNDERDOG?? Gimme some uh dat, thank you very much. It doesn't hurt either, that behind the plate is Tim Mcclelland, who's made $100/game betters nearly 2 dimes over the past 8 seasons just by playing the road squad.
Mont +290 over SF (risk 1 unit) - This one is a pure value play. Montreal has played much better ball since the trade deadline, especially against righthanders (6.24 runs/game). If the Expos can get Schmidt out of the game, they got a decent chance vs SF's soft bullpen (4.84 ERA). Helping the Expos will be Jerry Crawford behind the plate. Crawford has been an "anti-homer" for many years, with home teams winning only 47% of the games he's umped over the last 8 seasons. Surely this elevated line is worth risking at least a unit on.
Cincy individual team total u4 -120 (oly) (risk 2 units) - I was gonna play the regular under in this one but I just don't trust Branden Claussen to shut down the high powered Cardinal offense even with the help of Doug Eddings behind the plate. It looks like oddsmakers are really compensating for Eddings unfortunately. This game would no doubt be u11 or more with an average ump behind the plate. Nevertheless, I just cannot see Cincy scoring more than 4 going against Morris AND Eddings.
