Tuesdays pups with write-ups

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Sep 21, 2004
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Yesterday 0-1 -1.6 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 35-56 (-10.73 units)

Toronto +2.40 over BOSTON
Despite the Blue Jays woes this year, this price is simply too steep and without doubt is worthy of a play. Ted Lilly and Pedro Martinez have almost identical numbers other then their won/loss records. Both chuckers have started 24 games with Lilly going 8-8 and Pedro going 13-4. Martinez’s ERA is just 0.10 better then Lilly’s and the bottom line here is that Ted Lilly is too good a pitcher to be this big a pup. He’s a solid lefty and the Red Sox are just 21-20 against southpaws. Jays are the type of team that can come up with a huge game because of their talent, however, they’ve just mailed it in over the past month but don’t expect that tonight. Everyone loves to beat Pedro and it’s not like he’s been lights out this year. We’re not saying that the Jays are going to emerge victorious here, all we’re saying is that the value here cannot be overlooked and Lilly keeps the Jays in games. Should that come to pass here with the bullpens deciding the outcome, we’ll be feeling pretty good with a take-back of almost 2½ -1. Play Toronto +2.40 (Risking 1 unit).

Florida +1.20 over LOS ANGELES
Appears as though the Dodgers brass is much more comfortable using Wilson Alvarez as a reliever rather then a starter. In 30 appearances this year Alvarez has started just 11 games and has appeared as a reliever in three of his past four games. When he did start, in his last outing against the Reds, Alvarez lasted just 5.1 innings and was tagged for three earned runs. We’re just not confident with him as a starter simply because the Dodgers aren’t either. Meanwhile, the Fish had a big win last night, the type of win that can trigger a serious run. They’re still in the hunt for a wild card and now sit just 4½ back. A.J. Burnett keeps getting stronger after a late start to the season. He five hit the Cardinals in his last start, holding them to just two runs in seven frames. He’s pitched a full seven innings in his last two starts and has always pitched brilliantly at Chavez Ravine. Play Florida +1.10 (Risking 1 unit).

Detroit +1.50 over CHICAGO
Not a thing appealing about the White Sox these days especially at prices like this. We find tremendous value here on this feisty Tiger club and intend to take full advantage. Chicago is having a horrible second half and in fact, have dropped 14 of their past 21 games. Freddy Garcia is a decent pitcher, make no mistake about that, however, the Tigers have seen him twice already this year and despite getting beat both times, Detroit hit him pretty hard last time out. Additionally, the Tigers send their hottest pitcher to the mound. Mike Maroth, who is 4-0 with a 2.68 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break, can become the first Tigers pitcher in three years to reach double digits in wins. Lastly, the South Side has gone a brutal 13-24 against lefties this year and absolutely do not deserve this billing. Huge overlay. Play Detroit +1.60 (Risking 1 unit).
 

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