MLB Wild Card Races (Tuleytout article).

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MLB wild cards take action
By DAVE TULEY
LAS VEGAS - At this time of year, with the football season looming, it's usually a good time to check in on the baseball divisional races.
From this point on, many bettors will wager only on teams that still have a shot at the playoffs, and avoid teams that are likely to start calling up minor leaguers and preparing for the future. In addition to limiting plays to teams that are giving 100 percent, handicappers are likely to cut back on time they devote to baseball in order to focus on football.

The divisional playoff races are almost non-existent as three of the division winners are all but foregone conclusions - Cardinals in the NL Central, the surging Braves in the NL East, and the Yankees in the AL East - with the Dodgers holding a comfortable 5 1/2-game lead over the Giants through Tuesday night's action in the NL West. The Twins were looking comfortable in the AL Central until the surprising Indians cut their lead to 3 1/2 games earlier this week. The only real race going into Wednesday was in the AL West, with the A's only a half-game ahead of the Rangers and the Angels only two games out.

At least the wild-card races are keeping some teams' playoff hopes alive, as the Red Sox were in a dead heat with the Rangers in the AL. The Angels and Indians are also in that mix, with the White Sox within striking distance. In the NL, the Giants lead the Padres by one game and the Cubs by 1 1/2 games.

It's the teams battling for the wild card - with the exception of the Cubs - that have attracted the most action lately in the World Series future books around Las Vegas. Value has been long gone on the favorites, such as the Yankees (9-5 at most books, and as low as 6-5 at the Stardust). The Red Sox opened the season as one of the top contenders, and their odds are still low, at around 4-1 at most books. The Cardinals, who opened the season at 12-1, have been bet down to 3-1 since before the All-Star break. The Cubs, who perennially get bet by their die-hard fans no matter how good or bad they are, opened the season in the 6-1 range at most books and are down to 7-2 despite being way behind the Cardinals in the standings.

But sharp bettors have been searching around town for juicy odds on some of the surprise contenders who could offer value if they sneak into the playoffs. The best example right now is the Indians, who were available at several sports books the past few weeks in the 100-1 range (good luck finding those odds now). Bettors were also finding value on the Braves, who many people thought were going to give up their stranglehold on the NL East but have proven many people wrong, at 10-1 or better. The Rangers and The Twins were overlooked in many sports books at 15-1, but not any longer.

About the only value currently out there is the Marlins at 20-1 or 30-1, if you think they'll make a run like they did last year. They were right at .500 through Tuesday night, but only 5 1/2 games out in the wild-card race. Of course, at 20-1, you could argue that those are closer to their odds to make the playoffs than winning the World Series.


Dave Tuley DRF.com
 

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