Atl/LA u8.5 +105 (IIS) (3 units) - The line on this one has been rising steadily since last night when it opened at u8 +102. I would have played it at THAT number. It has been rising to account for recent offensive outbursts by both the Dodgers and Braves. It don't put too much credence in recent trends, however. Season long averages are better estimates of future results in my experience, and the seasonal averages of these 2 teams point toward a much lower scoring game here. The starting pitchers combine for a total game ERA of 8.50, while the pens combine for a total ERA of 6.00. Assuming the bullpen averages 3 innings/game, we can expect an total game ERA of about 7.67 here. Offensively the teams combine to score 9.6 runs/game vs the type of pitcher (right/left) that they face today. The ballpark factor is -1.38 runs due to very pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. Defensively the Dodgers are the best in baseball. The Braves do make a lot of errors, but they are 2nd in the league in double plays so they are much better defensively than at first glance. The clincher is home plate ump Bill Miller. Miller's lifetime K/BB ratio is 2nd only to Doug Eddings, and 58% of the games he has umped in the last 8 seasons have gone under. This looks like a very good opportunity for an under here.
