Discussion of picks...
Tor/Balt o9.5 +100 (oly) (2 units) - After playing some of the best baseball in the league for over a month, O's have gone into another tailspin. Interestingly, the thing that got them rolling (pitching, especially relief pitching) is the same thing that has contributed mostly to their recent failure. The O's offense is still in high gear, as it has been all year, especially vs righthanders. Today's starter, Daniel Caberra, has had a pretty good season, but when he's off it's usually because of his control (4.5 BB/gm). He'll get no help today from home plate ump Paul Shreiber. Shreiber's small strikezone (1.71 K/BB career} has been a nightmare to pitchers with control problems. 56.5% of games umped by Shreiber have gone over in the past 8 seasons, including 18 of 24 this season.
Bost/ChiWS u10.5 -102 (pinny) (2 units) - Brandon Arroyo is the 5th starter on this team, but a strong case can be made that he could be a number 1 or 2 starter on a lesser pitching staff. Arroyo has had the misfortune of being on the mound for 17 unearned runs this year. His 34 BB's in 124 IP is one of the best on the staff. Arroyo will face Josh Stewart for the ChiSox. Stewart is making his return to the bigs today after a short stint in the majors last year where he struggled with his control. Stewart had a good season in AAA, going 8-7 3.80 ERA, and reduced his walks to less than 3 per 9 innings. Both pitchers will get an enormous boost from Doug Eddings and the major leagues biggest strikezone. Eddings 3.11 K/BB this year is on pace to set a record for umps for the largest ratio of strikeouts per walk. His 65% strike to ball ratio is almost unheard of. Both these teams have been scoring a lot lately, but as I stated in my win last night with Atl/LA under, I believe too much emphasis is placed on recent performances, and year long averages are better predictors of future results.
Bost individual team total u5.5 -120 (oly) (2 units) - Pitchers making their first appearance in a while have historically had good games. Whether its because they are rested, or because other teams are unfamiliar with them, or because they are "juiced" for the game, I don't know, but it often is the case. The BoSox have been big scorers all year but have averaged 0.62 less runs per game on the road and 0.3 less runs vs lefties. The ChiSox also have a very good D (5th in errors, 2nd in DP's), and because of last night's blowout loss in which the better relievers from the very good ChiSox relief corp (3.77 ERA) were given the day off - a rested bullpen. Boston is gonna have to earn their runs and earn them early today. Bottom line is the Red Sox average only 5 runs/game away from Fenway and their going up against a hungry starter, a great (and rested) bullpen, a great defense, and a very forgiving umpire, who also happens to be somewhat of a homer, too (57% home team winners in his 7 season career).
remaining games discussion to follow ...
