Yesterday 1-0 +1.68 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 40-59 (-5.53 units)
NY Mets +1.45 over SAN FRANCISCO
Our outlook here is not to try and predict the outcome of games but rather to find value on specific teams in certain situations and then try and capitalize. Kirk Reuter is just not nearly good enough to be better then 3-2 chalk over anyone. Reuter has a lousy 43 k’s all year in 142 innings of work and that’s a pretty good indication that he’s not fooling anyone. Even more disturbing then that is the fact that he’s walked more batters (53) then he’s struck out. At Pac-Bell, one of the friendliest pitchers park in the majors, Reuter is 4-6 with an ERA of 5.06. His ERA over his past three games is 6.75 and seldom does he make it out of the fifth frame. Reuter has six wins in 25 starts this year and taking the opposition against him at a price like this has got to be considered good strategy. Frankly, there’s nothing to like about the Giants starter today. Additionally, Barry Bonds seldom plays a day game after the team played the previous night and that’s the situation here. Overlay. Play NY Mets +1.45 (Risking 1.6 units).
Pittsburgh +2.25 over ST. LOUIS
This is just one baseball game in 162 for both teams and while the Cardinals are tearing things up they’re certainly not a lock here. In fact, Matt Morris has been very average all year. He comes into this one with a 4.67 ERA and has not been sharp on far too many occasions to warrant a crazy tag like this. The Cardinals have won three in a row and seven of their past 10 games. They have a 14½ game lead in the division, played a double header yesterday and they have a day off tomorrow. Can you think of a better time for Tony LaRussa to rest a few regulars? We can’t and suggest that many of the Cardinals big guns may just be getting a much needed two day rest and sitting this one out. The Pirates are a very talented baseball team with plenty of punch in the line-up. They are capable of beating anyone at anytime and regardless of who’s going for the Bucco’s today, a take-back like this is simply a must play. Huge overlay. Play Pittsburgh +2.25 (Risking 1.6 units).
Seattle +1.30 over DETROIT
You look at this game and see what appears to be somewhat of a mismatch in the Tigers favor. After all, Mike Maroth leads the Tigers staff with 10 wins, hasn’t lost in his past seven games and is undefeated at home. Furthermore, the Tigers have won three in a row and four of five while the Mariners have dropped three in a row and have the leagues second worst record ahead of just Arizona. Then we see that Gil Meche does not have pretty numbers. He has an ERA of 5.63 and has just three wins in 14 starts. Our next question is why are the Tigers a seemingly cheap price for chalk bettors? Can you say trap? We have to believe the oddsmakers know something here and are looking for Tiger money. A closer look at Meche reveals that he hasn’t lost in his past five decisions and has been especially sharp in his last two. Meche, over that stretch has faced some of the AL’s best competition. He beat the Yankees and the Twins and received a no decision in games against Anaheim, Baltimore and Cleveland. Meanwhile, despite winning, Maroth has allowed 27 hits in his past 18 innings and has walked more batters then he’s struck out over that stretch. The squares are going to be all over this favorite and we believe the trap has been set. Play Seattle +1.30 (Risking 1.6 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 40-59 (-5.53 units)
NY Mets +1.45 over SAN FRANCISCO
Our outlook here is not to try and predict the outcome of games but rather to find value on specific teams in certain situations and then try and capitalize. Kirk Reuter is just not nearly good enough to be better then 3-2 chalk over anyone. Reuter has a lousy 43 k’s all year in 142 innings of work and that’s a pretty good indication that he’s not fooling anyone. Even more disturbing then that is the fact that he’s walked more batters (53) then he’s struck out. At Pac-Bell, one of the friendliest pitchers park in the majors, Reuter is 4-6 with an ERA of 5.06. His ERA over his past three games is 6.75 and seldom does he make it out of the fifth frame. Reuter has six wins in 25 starts this year and taking the opposition against him at a price like this has got to be considered good strategy. Frankly, there’s nothing to like about the Giants starter today. Additionally, Barry Bonds seldom plays a day game after the team played the previous night and that’s the situation here. Overlay. Play NY Mets +1.45 (Risking 1.6 units).
Pittsburgh +2.25 over ST. LOUIS
This is just one baseball game in 162 for both teams and while the Cardinals are tearing things up they’re certainly not a lock here. In fact, Matt Morris has been very average all year. He comes into this one with a 4.67 ERA and has not been sharp on far too many occasions to warrant a crazy tag like this. The Cardinals have won three in a row and seven of their past 10 games. They have a 14½ game lead in the division, played a double header yesterday and they have a day off tomorrow. Can you think of a better time for Tony LaRussa to rest a few regulars? We can’t and suggest that many of the Cardinals big guns may just be getting a much needed two day rest and sitting this one out. The Pirates are a very talented baseball team with plenty of punch in the line-up. They are capable of beating anyone at anytime and regardless of who’s going for the Bucco’s today, a take-back like this is simply a must play. Huge overlay. Play Pittsburgh +2.25 (Risking 1.6 units).
Seattle +1.30 over DETROIT
You look at this game and see what appears to be somewhat of a mismatch in the Tigers favor. After all, Mike Maroth leads the Tigers staff with 10 wins, hasn’t lost in his past seven games and is undefeated at home. Furthermore, the Tigers have won three in a row and four of five while the Mariners have dropped three in a row and have the leagues second worst record ahead of just Arizona. Then we see that Gil Meche does not have pretty numbers. He has an ERA of 5.63 and has just three wins in 14 starts. Our next question is why are the Tigers a seemingly cheap price for chalk bettors? Can you say trap? We have to believe the oddsmakers know something here and are looking for Tiger money. A closer look at Meche reveals that he hasn’t lost in his past five decisions and has been especially sharp in his last two. Meche, over that stretch has faced some of the AL’s best competition. He beat the Yankees and the Twins and received a no decision in games against Anaheim, Baltimore and Cleveland. Meanwhile, despite winning, Maroth has allowed 27 hits in his past 18 innings and has walked more batters then he’s struck out over that stretch. The squares are going to be all over this favorite and we believe the trap has been set. Play Seattle +1.30 (Risking 1.6 units).
