Yesterday 1-2 -1.12 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 41-61 (-6.65 units)
Arizona +1.60 over PITTSBURGH
Forget the fact that the D-backs are the worst team in the majors. What we have here is an absolutely ludicrous line on a pitcher that has one major league start and it wasn’t pretty. John Van Benschoten was a first round choice for the Pirates in 2001 and has been struggling in the minors ever since. This year, at Triple AAA Nashville, Benschoten went
4-11 with an ERA of 4.72. He allowed 16 minor league jacks and he carried that over to his major league debut when these same intruders went deep on him twice. They also scored 6 runs off him. The D-Backs don’t win often, however, they are going to win some more games this year and this is surely one they can pull off. Casey Fossum throws from the left side and the Pirates have just 10 wins all year against southpaws. Pittsburgh is also returning home from a trip in which they played eight games in seven days and got smoked the last four games in St. Louis. The pen was used extensively on the trip and with all that in mind, this host is ripe to get beat. Guys like Curt Schilling are 1.80 chalk, not minor-leaguers. Play Arizona +1.60 (Risking 1.5 units).
Minnesota –1½ +1.30 over TEXAS
Johan Santana has not allowed more than three runs in an outing since June 9, and has yielded two or fewer in all but two of his last 14 starts. Santana won his sixth straight decision Wednesday, allowing two runs and five hits in seven innings of a 7-2 victory over Mike Mussina and the Yankees. He took a shutout into the eighth inning and improved to 6-0 with a 1.82 ERA since the All-Star break. Minnesota is on fire right now and this is one of best hitting parks in the majors. Kenny Rogers has 15 wins, however, wins and losses don’t tell the whole story. Rogers has an ERA of 4.55 and over his past three games his ERA is 6.89. Rogers has allowed 182 hits in 158 innings and should give these hot bats plenty of opportunities to score. By contrast, Santana has allowed 128 hits in 173 innings of work. Lastly, the Rangers struggle against lefties and will face the leagues best here. Play Minnesota –1½ +1.30 (Risking 1.5 units).
Tampa Bay +1.35 over SEATTLE
Any take-back against these Mariners is worthy of consideration and this one is no different. The Devil Rays will give the ball to highly touted newcomer, Scott Kazmir. Kazmir, a flame-throwing 20-year-old left-hander, was dealt to the Devil Rays on July 30 in the four-player trade that sent right-hander Victor Zambrano to New York. The 15th overall pick in the 2002 draft, Kazmir was being touted as the Mets' ace of the future, but fell out of favor within the organization over the last year. He had a 2.50 ERA and racked up 104 strikeouts in 101 innings in the minors this year, prompting the Devil Rays to bring him up a full week before major league rosters expand to 40 players. Bobby Mandritsch has been sharp for the Mariners, however, we’re not convinced that he’s as good as his numbers would suggest. He is often struggling with the strike zone and in fact, walked 5 Royals in his last start while striking out four. The D-Rays saw him very recently and the second go around is seldom as easy as the first. Line is a tad too high and we’re on it. Play Tampa Bay +1.35 (Risking 1.5 units).
San Diego –1½ +1.00 over NY METS
The Padres will be thrilled to get away from home where they have struggled all year with a 33-33 record. They couldn’t have hand picked a better place to be then in New York at Shea. The Mets are just not the same without Piazza and its no coincidence that since he’s gone down the Mets have fallen out of the race. In addition, Aaron Heilman will make his season debut for the Mets here. Heilman was 2-7 last year with a 6.75 ERA in 14 outings as he struggled with his control and his confidence. To make matters worse, he’ll oppose the Padres ace, Jake Peavy here. Peavy is 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA in his last six starts to help the Padres to a 7-0 record in that span. He allowed one run and two hits in seven innings as the Padres beat the Atlanta Braves 11-6 on Tuesday, giving up two earned runs or fewer for the 17th time in 18 starts. He struck out nine for the third time in four games. The man is the goods and this start comes at a time when the Padres need a win in a big way and we trust they’ll respond against this weak foe. Play San Diego –1½ +1.00 (Risking 1.5 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 41-61 (-6.65 units)
Arizona +1.60 over PITTSBURGH
Forget the fact that the D-backs are the worst team in the majors. What we have here is an absolutely ludicrous line on a pitcher that has one major league start and it wasn’t pretty. John Van Benschoten was a first round choice for the Pirates in 2001 and has been struggling in the minors ever since. This year, at Triple AAA Nashville, Benschoten went
4-11 with an ERA of 4.72. He allowed 16 minor league jacks and he carried that over to his major league debut when these same intruders went deep on him twice. They also scored 6 runs off him. The D-Backs don’t win often, however, they are going to win some more games this year and this is surely one they can pull off. Casey Fossum throws from the left side and the Pirates have just 10 wins all year against southpaws. Pittsburgh is also returning home from a trip in which they played eight games in seven days and got smoked the last four games in St. Louis. The pen was used extensively on the trip and with all that in mind, this host is ripe to get beat. Guys like Curt Schilling are 1.80 chalk, not minor-leaguers. Play Arizona +1.60 (Risking 1.5 units).
Minnesota –1½ +1.30 over TEXAS
Johan Santana has not allowed more than three runs in an outing since June 9, and has yielded two or fewer in all but two of his last 14 starts. Santana won his sixth straight decision Wednesday, allowing two runs and five hits in seven innings of a 7-2 victory over Mike Mussina and the Yankees. He took a shutout into the eighth inning and improved to 6-0 with a 1.82 ERA since the All-Star break. Minnesota is on fire right now and this is one of best hitting parks in the majors. Kenny Rogers has 15 wins, however, wins and losses don’t tell the whole story. Rogers has an ERA of 4.55 and over his past three games his ERA is 6.89. Rogers has allowed 182 hits in 158 innings and should give these hot bats plenty of opportunities to score. By contrast, Santana has allowed 128 hits in 173 innings of work. Lastly, the Rangers struggle against lefties and will face the leagues best here. Play Minnesota –1½ +1.30 (Risking 1.5 units).
Tampa Bay +1.35 over SEATTLE
Any take-back against these Mariners is worthy of consideration and this one is no different. The Devil Rays will give the ball to highly touted newcomer, Scott Kazmir. Kazmir, a flame-throwing 20-year-old left-hander, was dealt to the Devil Rays on July 30 in the four-player trade that sent right-hander Victor Zambrano to New York. The 15th overall pick in the 2002 draft, Kazmir was being touted as the Mets' ace of the future, but fell out of favor within the organization over the last year. He had a 2.50 ERA and racked up 104 strikeouts in 101 innings in the minors this year, prompting the Devil Rays to bring him up a full week before major league rosters expand to 40 players. Bobby Mandritsch has been sharp for the Mariners, however, we’re not convinced that he’s as good as his numbers would suggest. He is often struggling with the strike zone and in fact, walked 5 Royals in his last start while striking out four. The D-Rays saw him very recently and the second go around is seldom as easy as the first. Line is a tad too high and we’re on it. Play Tampa Bay +1.35 (Risking 1.5 units).
San Diego –1½ +1.00 over NY METS
The Padres will be thrilled to get away from home where they have struggled all year with a 33-33 record. They couldn’t have hand picked a better place to be then in New York at Shea. The Mets are just not the same without Piazza and its no coincidence that since he’s gone down the Mets have fallen out of the race. In addition, Aaron Heilman will make his season debut for the Mets here. Heilman was 2-7 last year with a 6.75 ERA in 14 outings as he struggled with his control and his confidence. To make matters worse, he’ll oppose the Padres ace, Jake Peavy here. Peavy is 4-0 with a 1.60 ERA in his last six starts to help the Padres to a 7-0 record in that span. He allowed one run and two hits in seven innings as the Padres beat the Atlanta Braves 11-6 on Tuesday, giving up two earned runs or fewer for the 17th time in 18 starts. He struck out nine for the third time in four games. The man is the goods and this start comes at a time when the Padres need a win in a big way and we trust they’ll respond against this weak foe. Play San Diego –1½ +1.00 (Risking 1.5 units).
