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Kid's Picks for Tues
- Thread starter TheMDKid
- Start date
TB +137 over Seat (IIS) (risk 4 units) - What we have here is the superior team in almost every aspect as a fairly significant dog. The D-Rays have the better starter, Rob Bell, whose only bad outings in his last 10 have been in Texas, and vs the Red Sox and Yankees - 3 of the top scoring teams in the league. Bell also shut the Mariners down 3 starts ago, with 7 IP and 0 ER's. The Devil Rays have a vastly superior bullpen (3.81 ERA vs 5.58 ERA), and are also better offensively (4.26 runs/game vs 3.85), especially vs the type of pitcher (right/left) they'll be facing tonight. The Devil Rays will be without Rocco Baldelli, but they might get Aubrey Huff back tonight. Defensively the teams are pretty equal with only a slight advantage to the Mariners. Bad teams playing at home vs other bad teams toward the end of the season make very poor favorites, and this is exactly the situation the Mariners are in. To top everything off we have Ron Kulpa calling balls and strikes. Less than 46% of home teams have won with Kulpa umping in his 6 seasons, and he is currently my 2nd rated ump in this regard. Bottom line here is there is no way that a team with a .374 winning pct, and using a pitcher whose compiled a 5.04 ERA pitching in the lowest scoring park in baseball, should be a favorite against anyone, let alone a substantial favorite.
SD -120 over NYM (gameday) (risk 3 units) - I wish I had seen this one last night when SD was -104. There is still plenty of value here, though. Once again we got a road team who is substantially better in nearly every aspect of the game. David Wells is nearly a full run better than Kris Benson, and the Padre bullpen is nearly a half run better than NY's pen. The Pads outscore their hosts by over 0.25 runs/game despite playing in extremely low scoring PETCO Park. And defensively, whereas the Padres are middle of the road, the Mets are the major's worst squad, having the dubious distinction of being the only team with more errors than double plays. The Mets are also riddled with injuries. Starters Piazza, Matsui, and Reyes are all out, as are relief pitchers DeJean, Parra, Moreno, and sub McEwing. The topping on the cake is home plate ump Eric Cooper. The home team's record when Cooper is umping is hard to believe. In the last 8 years, the hosts have a 104-120 record with Cooper calling the shots, and the record is an amazing 21-44 the last 2 seasons.
SD -120 over NYM (gameday) (risk 3 units) - I wish I had seen this one last night when SD was -104. There is still plenty of value here, though. Once again we got a road team who is substantially better in nearly every aspect of the game. David Wells is nearly a full run better than Kris Benson, and the Padre bullpen is nearly a half run better than NY's pen. The Pads outscore their hosts by over 0.25 runs/game despite playing in extremely low scoring PETCO Park. And defensively, whereas the Padres are middle of the road, the Mets are the major's worst squad, having the dubious distinction of being the only team with more errors than double plays. The Mets are also riddled with injuries. Starters Piazza, Matsui, and Reyes are all out, as are relief pitchers DeJean, Parra, Moreno, and sub McEwing. The topping on the cake is home plate ump Eric Cooper. The home team's record when Cooper is umping is hard to believe. In the last 8 years, the hosts have a 104-120 record with Cooper calling the shots, and the record is an amazing 21-44 the last 2 seasons.
Season summary...thru 8/23/04
1 unit plays ....... 3-2, +0.83 units
2 unit ........... 21-23, -6.63
3 unit .............. 12-13, -4.91
4 unit .............. 5-1, +13.54
5 unit .............. 0-2, -10.00
sides ............ 16-20, -11.54
over/unders ... 25-21, +4.37
grand total .... 41-41, -7.17 units
One more play for today...
Minn +118 over Tex (oly) (risk 1 unit) - Texas starting rookie making major league debut vs hot first place club. Carlos Silva of the Twins blew a gasket in his last 2 outings, but they were against NY and Cleve - 2 very high scoring machines. Minny's pen is superior and the offenses are equal (after adjusting for Texas's numbers away from Arlington). Hot, first place club at plus money vs rookie pitcher - definitely worth at least a unit.
1 unit plays ....... 3-2, +0.83 units
2 unit ........... 21-23, -6.63
3 unit .............. 12-13, -4.91
4 unit .............. 5-1, +13.54
5 unit .............. 0-2, -10.00
sides ............ 16-20, -11.54
over/unders ... 25-21, +4.37
grand total .... 41-41, -7.17 units
One more play for today...
Minn +118 over Tex (oly) (risk 1 unit) - Texas starting rookie making major league debut vs hot first place club. Carlos Silva of the Twins blew a gasket in his last 2 outings, but they were against NY and Cleve - 2 very high scoring machines. Minny's pen is superior and the offenses are equal (after adjusting for Texas's numbers away from Arlington). Hot, first place club at plus money vs rookie pitcher - definitely worth at least a unit.
SF/Flor o8.5 -112 (IIS) (risk 3 units) - Full lineups tonight, wind blowing out slightly, ballpark factor is positive, and Randy Marsh is behind the plate. Marsh's career 135-103 over/under record ranks him in the top 3 umps and his career 1.64 K/BB ratio ranks him in the top 5. The line jumped to o8.5 -121 at pinny soon after Marsh was announced as ump.
