Kid's picks for Wed (44-42, +2.49 units)

Season summary...thru 8/24/04

1 unit plays ....... 3-3, -0.17 units
2 unit ........... 21-23, -6.63
3 unit .............. 14-13, +0.27
4 unit .............. 6-1, +19.02
5 unit .............. 0-2, -10.00

sides ............ 18-21, -4.56
over/unders ... 26-21, +7.05


grand total .... 44-42, +2.49 units



On to today's picks ...

TB/Seat u9 -117 (IIS) (risk 3 units) - Get this one quick. The line is moving already.

discussion and more picks later

TB/Seat u9 -117 (IIS) (risk 3 units) - This line is inflated, in my opinion, due to the recent performances of the starting pitchers. I have continuously maintained that recent performances by pitchers is overrated. In addition, a closer look at the recent performances of the 2 starters here reveals that a large number of games were in high scoring ballparks and vs high scoring teams. Of the past 10 starts for each pitcher, 14 were against a top 5 team in runs or in a top 5 scoring ballpark. What is really interesting, though, is these 2 pitchers have OWNED the other team. In 4 games vs today's opponent these 2 starters have tossed 28 IP's, allowed 19 hits, and ONLY 3 RUNS! The 2 bullpens combine for an average ERA of 4.76 and the defenses are average. In addition the D-Rays are still without big bats Aubrey Huff, and Rocco Baldelli. Offensively the 2 teams combine to average only 8.73 runs/game vs the type of pitcher (right/left) they'll be facing. The ballpark factor is very negative, due to the game being played in the toughest park to score in the majors. Finally we have Bill Miller calling balls and strikes. Bill's expansive strikezone (2.42 K/BB) is 2nd only to Doug Eddings over the years. This has lead to a 84-114 over/under record with Miller behind the plate since 1997.

Another...

Colo +155 over Atl - 5 inning line - (pinny) (risk 2 units)

discussion to follow

Colo +155 over Atl - 5 inning line - (pinny) (risk 2 units) - Jeff Francis is one of the top prospects to come up to the bigs in quite some time. This lefty has had phenomenal success in every step of his development. Most recently during his stop in Colorado Springs (AAA), he threw 41 innings, allowed 35 hits, struck out 49, and allowed only 7 walks. Francis is considered better than Scott Kazmir who burst on the scene last week with 5 shutout innings. On the other hand John Thompson of the Braves has benefitted from some weak competition lately to pad his pitching stats. Among his recent 10 starts were games vs low scoring NY, Mil, Hous, Pitt, Mont, Flor, and in LA. Not exactly a murderers row. In his only game vs the Rocks, he GOT ROCKED - allowing 10 hits and 7 ER's in 6 plus. The Braves DO prefer to face lefthanders, but the Rockies prefer righthanders, so that is a wash. Additionally, the Braves tend to let down after victories. For 2 straight seasons they have posted the best record in baseball following a loss, but they are only an average team after posting a win. This year the numbers are .500 after a win, .679 after a loss. Defensively the Rockies are a much better squad, committing 71 errors to the Braves 99. The Braves have a MUCH better bullpen and rarely give up a lead, consequently I went with the 5 inning line. Finally, we have Marty Foster behind the plate. Marty's larger than average strikezone (2.00 K/BB vs league avg of 1.91) will help quell Francis's nerves on the close pitches, and his tendancy to favor the road team ($1785 in winnings to 'cappers playing the road team since 1997) will further help to make Francis's transition to the bigs a splash.

and another...

Balt +220 over Oak (oly) (risk 1 unit) - Two weeks ago the line on this game would have been around +160. Since then, the O's have gone into a tailspin and the A's have heated up. But these are still basically the same 2 teams as they were just a short time ago. The more a team loses, the more likely their opponent lets down against them. I believe that will be the case here. Bruce Chen will be making his return to the majors tonight after more than a year in the minors. He was putting up some really good numbers this year so he earned this promotion. Chen's numbers at Ottawa (AAA) were 105 IP, 102 H, 35 BB, and 116 K's for a 3.76 ERA. For the A's, Rich Harden is more than capable of throwing a dud on occasion - 5 of his last 14 outings could be considered poor, and he is rarely dominating - only 2 of these last 14 starts did he allow less than 2 runs. The Orioles continue to LOVE righthanded pitching (1.5 more runs/game vs righties), and their bullpen has actually been superior to Oakland's over the long haul (3.84 ERA to 4.14). Brian Onora behind the plate completes the package here. Onora has been very friendly to the road squad over the course of his career. $100 wagerers have made a whopping $3485 by playing only the road squad in the last 8 seasons with Onora calling balls and strikes. To sum up, this one is about value. The A's still should be favored here, but the line is much too high and it's certainly worth a unit on the O's in my opinion.

and still another...

Texas individual team total o5.5 -105 (oly) (risk 2 units) - Texas has averaged an insane 6.7 runs vs righthanders at home this year and they face Kyle Lohse, a pretty lousy righthander. Lohse's WHIP is a whopping 1.61, the worst on the entire staff. His problems are likely to get worse when he stands in and sees Paul Shreiber calling balls and strikes. Shreiber has a puny strikezone (1.71 K/BB) and he loves performing for the home crowd (123-94 home team record since 1997). Lohse can't even count on his defense to bail him out as the Twins poor defense is 4th to worst in the league. The only thing keeping me from wagering more on this one is Minny's pen, which despite it's recent troubles is still one of the best in the league. I can easily see the Rangers getting 6 or more on Lohse alone, though, in which case the pen wouldn't even come into play. In any case, this is worth at least a 2 unit play.

summing up, here are all tonights picks ...

TB/Seat u9 -117 (IIS) (risk 3 units)
Colo +155 over Atl - 5 inning line - (pinny) (risk 2 units)
Balt +220 over Oak (oly) (risk 1 unit)
Texas individual team total o5.5 -105 (oly) (risk 2 units)