Yesterday 0-2 -3.00 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 45-63 (-1.77 units)
Colorado +1.60 over ATLANTA
The first thing to note here is that John Thompson, the Braves starter tonight, is not even close to being worthy of this tag. He allows the opposition far too many opportunities to touch home plate and it’s for that reason that he’s always vulnerable to get beat. Thompson has been tagged for 168 hits in 149 innings at Turner Field he’s just 3-4 with a 5.22 ERA. Next we have Jeff Francis, who will make his much anticipated major league debut here. Domination is nothing new to this guy. In fact, scouts are calling him the best prospect to come along in years. A classic left-hander, he has a fine combination of stuff and command. He had a solid season in 2003 in the California League and thus far, a brilliant 2004. Jeff began putting up huge numbers for the University of British Columbia and hasn’t stopped since. In 2003, he finished the year 10-1 with a 1.06 ERA. He then pitched 15 shutout innings in two California League playoff games that gave him an amazing 22-1 record over his last 28 games there. He led the Texas League with a 13-1 record, a 1.98 earned-run average and 147 strikeouts and just 22 walks in 113 innings. Francis made a stunning Triple-A debut with the Colorado Sky Sox on July 17, striking out 12 of the 24 batters he faced in seven innings, allowing just one hit. In his second Class AAA start, Francis allowed one run on six hits and struck out six in six innings against the Oklahoma RedHawks on July 22. Francis is 2-2 with a 1.97 ERA in five starts for Triple-A Colorado Springs since he was promoted from Double-A Tulsa in mid-July. He has struck out 39 and walked only three in 32 innings. Expect the Rockies to be pumped up here to give him some run support and don’t be surprised if this kid dazzles again. Price is way too high. Play Colorado +1.60 (Risking 1.5 units).
Chicago/DETROIT under 9 –1.10
Not often are we playing baseball totals but when we see something appetizing we’ll gladly step in. The first thing to note in this contest is that it’s two southpaws hooking up here and that always favors the pitchers at this venue. The Tigers are 19-31 against lefties and the White Sox are 13-26. Fact is, both teams have struggled offensively when facing a lefty and the White Sox will send their best one out there today. Mark Buehrle has an impressive 5-1 record to go along with a 2.74 road ERA. Buehrle also averages seven innings per start away from U.S. Cellular Field. He’ll oppose Nate Robertson here. Robertson has 10 wins and a 4.79 ERA, which isn’t great, however, he does have 114 k’s in 146 innings and will face an offense that has struggled mightily since the break. Asking these two teams to score 10 runs is a big time request and frankly, we just don’t see it happening. Play it under 9 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
Tampa Bay +1.25 over SEATTLE
D-Rays took the first two games of this set and there’s nothing that suggests they won’t take this one too. Jorge Sosa will toe the slab for Tampa and he’s very capable of handling this assignment. Sosa has 73 strikeouts in 74 innings and is coming off a 7.1 inning performance against the Rangers. Sosa’s numbers, are far as his ERA is concerned isn’t great, however, he’s faced some extremely tough competition and when he’s faced weaker foes he’s been right on target. Sosa has recently faced the Yanks twice, Boston, Oakland and the Rangers. The opposition is hitting just .248 against him this year and this park should really benefit him. Lefthander Ron Villone will get the call for the Mariners and Villone struggles more often then not. He’s been castoff by eight major league teams already and by some of those teams twice. His ERA over his past three games is 8.22 and we want no part of Villone and the Mariners as the chalk. Lastly, the D-Rays are 20-14 against southpaws and surely come in here as a very live pooch. Play Tampa Bay +1.25 (Risking 1.5 units).
Y-T-D (on this site) 45-63 (-1.77 units)
Colorado +1.60 over ATLANTA
The first thing to note here is that John Thompson, the Braves starter tonight, is not even close to being worthy of this tag. He allows the opposition far too many opportunities to touch home plate and it’s for that reason that he’s always vulnerable to get beat. Thompson has been tagged for 168 hits in 149 innings at Turner Field he’s just 3-4 with a 5.22 ERA. Next we have Jeff Francis, who will make his much anticipated major league debut here. Domination is nothing new to this guy. In fact, scouts are calling him the best prospect to come along in years. A classic left-hander, he has a fine combination of stuff and command. He had a solid season in 2003 in the California League and thus far, a brilliant 2004. Jeff began putting up huge numbers for the University of British Columbia and hasn’t stopped since. In 2003, he finished the year 10-1 with a 1.06 ERA. He then pitched 15 shutout innings in two California League playoff games that gave him an amazing 22-1 record over his last 28 games there. He led the Texas League with a 13-1 record, a 1.98 earned-run average and 147 strikeouts and just 22 walks in 113 innings. Francis made a stunning Triple-A debut with the Colorado Sky Sox on July 17, striking out 12 of the 24 batters he faced in seven innings, allowing just one hit. In his second Class AAA start, Francis allowed one run on six hits and struck out six in six innings against the Oklahoma RedHawks on July 22. Francis is 2-2 with a 1.97 ERA in five starts for Triple-A Colorado Springs since he was promoted from Double-A Tulsa in mid-July. He has struck out 39 and walked only three in 32 innings. Expect the Rockies to be pumped up here to give him some run support and don’t be surprised if this kid dazzles again. Price is way too high. Play Colorado +1.60 (Risking 1.5 units).
Chicago/DETROIT under 9 –1.10
Not often are we playing baseball totals but when we see something appetizing we’ll gladly step in. The first thing to note in this contest is that it’s two southpaws hooking up here and that always favors the pitchers at this venue. The Tigers are 19-31 against lefties and the White Sox are 13-26. Fact is, both teams have struggled offensively when facing a lefty and the White Sox will send their best one out there today. Mark Buehrle has an impressive 5-1 record to go along with a 2.74 road ERA. Buehrle also averages seven innings per start away from U.S. Cellular Field. He’ll oppose Nate Robertson here. Robertson has 10 wins and a 4.79 ERA, which isn’t great, however, he does have 114 k’s in 146 innings and will face an offense that has struggled mightily since the break. Asking these two teams to score 10 runs is a big time request and frankly, we just don’t see it happening. Play it under 9 (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5).
Tampa Bay +1.25 over SEATTLE
D-Rays took the first two games of this set and there’s nothing that suggests they won’t take this one too. Jorge Sosa will toe the slab for Tampa and he’s very capable of handling this assignment. Sosa has 73 strikeouts in 74 innings and is coming off a 7.1 inning performance against the Rangers. Sosa’s numbers, are far as his ERA is concerned isn’t great, however, he’s faced some extremely tough competition and when he’s faced weaker foes he’s been right on target. Sosa has recently faced the Yanks twice, Boston, Oakland and the Rangers. The opposition is hitting just .248 against him this year and this park should really benefit him. Lefthander Ron Villone will get the call for the Mariners and Villone struggles more often then not. He’s been castoff by eight major league teams already and by some of those teams twice. His ERA over his past three games is 8.22 and we want no part of Villone and the Mariners as the chalk. Lastly, the D-Rays are 20-14 against southpaws and surely come in here as a very live pooch. Play Tampa Bay +1.25 (Risking 1.5 units).
