Fridays plays with write-ups

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Yesterday 0-2 -3.00 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 46-66 (-4.40 units)

Kansas City +1.40 over SEATTLE
Zack Greinke has been one of the most consistent starters that nobody has heard of this year. This guy just flat out brings it each and every time he takes the hill. He’s started 17 games since being called up on May 22 and of those 17 starts, 13 of them have been of the quality variety. He’s won four of his last five starts and in those four wins he allowed just 22 hits and five earned runs in 25 innings of work. He changes speeds with the best of them, he throws strikes, and he’s gaining confidence. He’s also facing a Mariners squad that once again is reeling badly. M’s has lost four in a row and seven of their past eight. Gil Meche has thrown just 77 innings this year and comes into this one with a 5.49 ERA. Mariners are a horrible favorite and unless the oddsmakers know something here, this line appears way off base. Seattle is 32-56 against right-handers and they’ve never faced Greinke before. Royals have the edge here and any take-back has got to be considered a gift. Play Kansas City +1.40 (Risking 1 unit).


Arizona +1.20 over CINCINNATI
Brandon Webb and his 5-14 record could crack the rotation on every team in the majors. He’s most definitely the finest 5-14 pitcher in a long, long time. Webb went 10-9 as a rookie last season, earning a 2.84 ERA in 28 starts and finishing third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. He struck out 172 in 180 2-3 innings while walking only 68. He’s been almost as sharp this year but a lack of run support has him on the short end in most games. He has held opponents to two or fewer runs in 11 of 16 starts including last Saturday, but earned just one win over that span. His ERA this year is 3.70 and he’s still mowing ‘em down to the tune of 121 k’s in 165 innings. Webb has nasty stuff and we have all the confidence in the world wagering on him here against Brandon Claussen. Claussen has issued 19 walks in his seven starts covering just 35 frames. He’s averaging 19 pitches per inning and that just might be the worst in the majors. It’s never bad strategy to bet against a hurler that can’t throw strikes, especially when the opposition has one of their two aces going. See ya at the cashier’s booth when this one’s in the books. Play Arizona +1.20 (Risking 1 unit).

Colorado +1.25 over FLORIDA
The equation here is rather simple. Give us a tag against Ismael Valdez and you can count us in. Valdez is among the many stiffs in the majors and he’s just a big inning waiting to happen. In three starts with the Fish since the Padres were thrilled to dump him, Valdez has walked seven and struck out six in 15.1 innings. He’s allowed 17 hits and eight earned runs over that span and it seems like he’s in a jam every inning. Florida continues to disappoint and were shut-out last night by Brett Tomko for crying out loud. They’ll face lefty Joe Kennedy here. Kennedy, in 115 innings has allowed just 115 hits and when you consider that he pitches half of his starts at Coors Field then you can’t help but be impressed by his 3.75 ERA. He has a 2.40 ERA over his past three starts. Some pitchers in this league should never be favored and Valdez is one of them. Play Colorado +1.25 (Risking 1 unit).
 

Oh boy!
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I enjoy your write-ups. They help me make a more-informed decision.

I agree with you about Webb being a good pitcher. But there are reasons his record is 5-14. One of the reasons is what you mention, lack of run support. Another reason is the bad bullpen.

One of the league's most dominant pitchers has a 12-12 record with this team. I'm betting on the Reds who have 5 out of their last 7.

Good luck.
 

And if the Road Warrior says it, it must be true..
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Info the Webb tonight:

MLB Fri, Aug 27, 2004
Fading Brandon Webb to the bank
Ryan Stetson

Talk about a sophomore slump. Last season, Arizona Diamondbacks starter Brandon Webb finished third in voting for the National League Rookie of the Year Award. This year, the only votes Webb will get will be for the worst value for your money.

When it comes to starter money standings, Webb sits second-worst in the bigs (-11.8 units), ahead of only teammate, Randy Johnson. Seeing a pair of Diamondbacks at the bottom of the money standings is enough to prove that Webb’s statistical woes aren’t all his fault. The hard-throwing Webb relies on groundball outs. The only problem is that the D-Backs’ infield defense is about as shaky as a back-shift janitor on eight cups of coffee.


Last year the 25-year-old finished with a 2.70 ERA and 172 strikeouts. This season the 6-foot-2, 228-pounder is working on a respectable 3.70 ERA and 121 punch-outs. But the difference is that last year Arizona was 15-13 when Webb was on the hill - this year the club is a horrific 8-19.

Walks have been a constant problem for Webb this season. Last year, he yielded 68 free passes to first, but he’s already issued 98 walks – most in the National League - during this campaign.

In his last start, Webb pitched seven strong innings in a 2-1 win over Cincinnati as a –105 favorite. He allowed four hits while striking out five and walking five.

“It's important to get a win for me and the team as well,” Webb told reporters after his first victory since July 26. “I had a quick first inning, a tougher second inning, but after that I felt pretty good.”

The outing was Webb’s second strong performance in a row. He held Pittsburgh scoreless through six innings July 16 before the bullpen imploded in an 8-7 loss as –115 favorites.

It’s that sort of thing that keeps oddsmakers from pegging Webb as the favorite more often. When he takes the hill against the Cincinnati Reds' young lefty, Brandon Claussen, Webb is set as a + 120 underdog.

It takes some willpower to steer clear of the dog in this matchup. Heading into the game, the Reds are 2-5 with Claussen (5.25 ERA) on the hill.

The total is set at nine.
 

Rx. Senior
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Sep 20, 2003
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good stuff Sherwood,
Agree on all three,
Greinke is a stud and will be undervalued by virtue of the team he is on.
Valdez is a stiff who should be at the glue factory.
Webb is better than his record, but I have to pass on the D'backs because their offense is horrendous.
 

Oh boy!
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Dbacks pull it out in extra innings. I didn't think they had it in them. Webb still doesn't get the win.
 

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