I posted this in the Offshore forum. I should have posted it here.
When MLB rosters expand September 1st many teams out of contention bring up their minor-leaguers to give them a chance to get some major-league experience. This brings up some good betting opportunities.
Teams that have no hope for a pennant run oftentimes will put in these inexperienced players at the risk of losing games. While the lines are adjusted for this, I have found that they seldom are adjusted as much as they should be. These teams that lose 4 out of 5 games would have to be +400 underdogs for the line to be even. Seldom do you see lines like this.
The books know they can't put up a line like this. Bettors are not going to be very willing to bet a -400 favorite. So the books make these lines from -200 to -300. At these prices it is profitable to bet the favorite.
When MLB rosters expand September 1st many teams out of contention bring up their minor-leaguers to give them a chance to get some major-league experience. This brings up some good betting opportunities.
Teams that have no hope for a pennant run oftentimes will put in these inexperienced players at the risk of losing games. While the lines are adjusted for this, I have found that they seldom are adjusted as much as they should be. These teams that lose 4 out of 5 games would have to be +400 underdogs for the line to be even. Seldom do you see lines like this.
The books know they can't put up a line like this. Bettors are not going to be very willing to bet a -400 favorite. So the books make these lines from -200 to -300. At these prices it is profitable to bet the favorite.
