Yesterday 0-0 -0.00 units
Y-T-D (on this site) 47-68 (-5.65 units)
Atlanta +1.00 over PHILADELPHIA
The Braves are doing everything right including winning games while the Phillies are finding out that the only team they can beat is the Brewers. In fact, the Phillies have lost 11 of their past 17 games and all six wins over that span have come against Milwaukee. They’re now asked to get right-sided against the hottest team in the majors and we have no reason to believe they’ll respond. Eric Milton has been about the worst 13-2 pitcher in quite some time so don’t let his impressive won/loss record fool you. His ERA is 4.71 and he averages less than six innings per start. He’s allowed 11 earned runs and seven bombs over his past 18 innings, a sure indication that his arm is starting to feel the effects of 160 innings pitched season. Mike Hampton will go for the Braves and while he wouldn’t be our first choice to start a playoff game, this choice has nothing to do with Hampton. This is all about not having to lay anything on the superior squad against a team that has been sinking faster then the Dixie Chicks career. Both the Phillies and Milton are laboring big time while the Braves just keep rolling on. Play Atlanta +1.00 (Risking 1 unit).
Anaheim +1.90 over BOSTON
We know the Red Sox are hot and we also recognize that Curt Schilling remains one of the best in the business. However, the Angels are just as hot and a take-back of nearly 2-1 can’t be ignored. John Lackey has always pitched well in big games and we expect him to respond tonight with another effort that will give the Angels a chance to win. Anaheim has won nine of their past 10 games and are the only AL team to rank among the top five in hitting (.288), ERA (4.36), and fielding percentage (.985). They also lead the league in sacrifice bunts (47), and stolen bases (110). In other words they can beat you in so many different ways as the Red Sox have already learned. When these two teams met in June for six games the Angels won four of them propelled by an offense with power, speed, and the skill to play small-ball. They outscored the Sox over the six games, 37-27. The Angels had an on-base percentage of .400 over the six games, hit seven homers, and stole eight bases without getting caught. The Sox managed only a .326 on-base percentage and one steal. We understand that was then and this is now and the Red Sox aren’t the same team that was losing as much as they were winning in June, however, the same can be said for the Angels. This is a huge series with the wild card up for grabs and we have much more confidence in Mike Scioscia’s ability to make the right moves in a big game then we do in Terry Francona’s ability. Having said all this, the bottom line here is value and with the best bullpen in the majors behind us, we’ll gladly take our chances at this price. Play Anaheim +1.90 (Risking 1 unit).
Pittsburgh +1.30 over MILWAUKEE
There are nearly 100 reasons not to go anywhere near the Brewers right now and as a result, we’ll confidently step in against them. First, this team has dropped 13 in a row and each time they step between the white lines, it gets tougher to shake. Losing is highly contagious. Milwaukee has scored a lousy seven runs in their past five games and it’s not like they’ve been facing anybody great. Phillie stiff, Cory Lidle threw a complete game shutout against them on Sunday and they followed up that with a one-run performance against Josh Fogg yesterday. This team of human windmills has struck out an incredible 651 times. They rank 28 in runs scores, dead last in team batting average, and 29 in home runs. The list goes on and on about how inept this host has been all year, and even more inept since the break. The pitching match-up here is not very relevant. What’s relevant is that the Brewers are overpriced and playing brutally horrible. This one’s a no-brainer. Of course the Pirates can win here. Play Pittsburgh +1.30 (Risking 1 unit).
Colorado +1.70 over SAN FRANCISCO
Jeff Francis will make just his second major league start here and despite getting hit hard in his debut, he absolutely did not look a bit out of place. He faced the red-hot Braves and all he did was throw strike after strike and ended up whiffing eight batters in five innings. The problem was Chipper Jones who went yard on him twice. He’ll get a much easier assignment here against a Giants team that returns home after seven games in Florida and Atlanta. Furthermore, Brett Tomko is not the caliber of pitcher you want to lay this type of lumber with. He’s unbeaten in his past five starts, however, that doesn’t change the fact that he’s been tagged for 167 hits in 146 innings and has an ERA near five. At Pac-Bell, Tomko has a 3-3 record, however, his ERA at this pitchers park is 6.46. Brett Tomko can’t even be considered average, he’s below that and we’ve seen this scenario play out many times before. He’s hit his peak with five strong outings in a row and a complete game shutout in his last start. Now the inevitable is about to happen whereas Brett Tomko goes back to pitching like Brett Tomko and that’s a guy you want to steer far away from, especially at this price. Play Colorado +1.70 (Risking 1 unit).
Y-T-D (on this site) 47-68 (-5.65 units)
Atlanta +1.00 over PHILADELPHIA
The Braves are doing everything right including winning games while the Phillies are finding out that the only team they can beat is the Brewers. In fact, the Phillies have lost 11 of their past 17 games and all six wins over that span have come against Milwaukee. They’re now asked to get right-sided against the hottest team in the majors and we have no reason to believe they’ll respond. Eric Milton has been about the worst 13-2 pitcher in quite some time so don’t let his impressive won/loss record fool you. His ERA is 4.71 and he averages less than six innings per start. He’s allowed 11 earned runs and seven bombs over his past 18 innings, a sure indication that his arm is starting to feel the effects of 160 innings pitched season. Mike Hampton will go for the Braves and while he wouldn’t be our first choice to start a playoff game, this choice has nothing to do with Hampton. This is all about not having to lay anything on the superior squad against a team that has been sinking faster then the Dixie Chicks career. Both the Phillies and Milton are laboring big time while the Braves just keep rolling on. Play Atlanta +1.00 (Risking 1 unit).
Anaheim +1.90 over BOSTON
We know the Red Sox are hot and we also recognize that Curt Schilling remains one of the best in the business. However, the Angels are just as hot and a take-back of nearly 2-1 can’t be ignored. John Lackey has always pitched well in big games and we expect him to respond tonight with another effort that will give the Angels a chance to win. Anaheim has won nine of their past 10 games and are the only AL team to rank among the top five in hitting (.288), ERA (4.36), and fielding percentage (.985). They also lead the league in sacrifice bunts (47), and stolen bases (110). In other words they can beat you in so many different ways as the Red Sox have already learned. When these two teams met in June for six games the Angels won four of them propelled by an offense with power, speed, and the skill to play small-ball. They outscored the Sox over the six games, 37-27. The Angels had an on-base percentage of .400 over the six games, hit seven homers, and stole eight bases without getting caught. The Sox managed only a .326 on-base percentage and one steal. We understand that was then and this is now and the Red Sox aren’t the same team that was losing as much as they were winning in June, however, the same can be said for the Angels. This is a huge series with the wild card up for grabs and we have much more confidence in Mike Scioscia’s ability to make the right moves in a big game then we do in Terry Francona’s ability. Having said all this, the bottom line here is value and with the best bullpen in the majors behind us, we’ll gladly take our chances at this price. Play Anaheim +1.90 (Risking 1 unit).
Pittsburgh +1.30 over MILWAUKEE
There are nearly 100 reasons not to go anywhere near the Brewers right now and as a result, we’ll confidently step in against them. First, this team has dropped 13 in a row and each time they step between the white lines, it gets tougher to shake. Losing is highly contagious. Milwaukee has scored a lousy seven runs in their past five games and it’s not like they’ve been facing anybody great. Phillie stiff, Cory Lidle threw a complete game shutout against them on Sunday and they followed up that with a one-run performance against Josh Fogg yesterday. This team of human windmills has struck out an incredible 651 times. They rank 28 in runs scores, dead last in team batting average, and 29 in home runs. The list goes on and on about how inept this host has been all year, and even more inept since the break. The pitching match-up here is not very relevant. What’s relevant is that the Brewers are overpriced and playing brutally horrible. This one’s a no-brainer. Of course the Pirates can win here. Play Pittsburgh +1.30 (Risking 1 unit).
Colorado +1.70 over SAN FRANCISCO
Jeff Francis will make just his second major league start here and despite getting hit hard in his debut, he absolutely did not look a bit out of place. He faced the red-hot Braves and all he did was throw strike after strike and ended up whiffing eight batters in five innings. The problem was Chipper Jones who went yard on him twice. He’ll get a much easier assignment here against a Giants team that returns home after seven games in Florida and Atlanta. Furthermore, Brett Tomko is not the caliber of pitcher you want to lay this type of lumber with. He’s unbeaten in his past five starts, however, that doesn’t change the fact that he’s been tagged for 167 hits in 146 innings and has an ERA near five. At Pac-Bell, Tomko has a 3-3 record, however, his ERA at this pitchers park is 6.46. Brett Tomko can’t even be considered average, he’s below that and we’ve seen this scenario play out many times before. He’s hit his peak with five strong outings in a row and a complete game shutout in his last start. Now the inevitable is about to happen whereas Brett Tomko goes back to pitching like Brett Tomko and that’s a guy you want to steer far away from, especially at this price. Play Colorado +1.70 (Risking 1 unit).
