drunken baseball, Episode 3 - Return of the Drunk

drunkguy · Aug 2, 2004

I think a new thread was needed. hopefully I will keep this one going until the playoffs

Yesterday: 1-1 +0.00

YTD: 176-199 +12.38

Tuesday:

Colorado -1.5 +240

Still trying to exploit the fact that the Cubs are not hitting lefties well, especially on the road (.213). Wood has not been his dominant self and his 3-game WHIP is starting to get a bit high at 1.39 (Cubs 1-2 his last 3 starts). The Colorado bats are more potent and I am counting on the Colorado pitching to hold the Cubs to just a few runs.

SYSTEM PLAYS (65-38 +14.92): Los Angeles -130, NY Yankees -107

drunkguy · Aug 3, 2004

Yesterday 1-2 -1.07

YTD: 177-201 +11.31

Wednesday:

Montreal-St Louis under 8.5 +105
Montreal +159

I am playing mostly on the strength of Hernandez, who has a 1.19 WHIP and 3.65 ERA on the season, including a 0.63 WHIP and 2.13 ERA over his last 3 (against PIT, FLA, FLA). Suppan has not been particularly effective this year, including a 1.98 WHIP and 8.15 ERA over his last 3 (CIN, SF, CIN). St Louis relievers are scary, with a 0.81 WHIP over the last 3 games. But, Montreal hitting much better lately and can hopefully score a few early runs and hang on to the lead.

Seattle-Baltimore over 9 -102

neither pitcher that hot lately, with WHIPs of 2.47 and 2.08 and ERAs of 11.12 and 6.61 over their last 3 respectively. Over that period they are a combined 1-5, and 5-1 over in those games. Both teams can hit and the Seattle relievers have been terrible of late (1.78 WHIP and 6.57 ERA over the last 3.

Oakland +134

Loaiza has been struggling and Harden has been great with a 0.97 WHIP and a 1.83 ERA over his last 3 (TOR, TEX, TEX). Oakland's relievers have been great and their hitting is also good, so I see no reason not to take them as a dog.

SYSTEM PLAYS: (66-39 +14.85): St Louis -167 (note, I am not counting this against my personal YTD record since I picked the Expos above)

drunkguy · Aug 5, 2004

alright, rough time out last time 0-3-1, all losses by 1 run or less -3.0

YTD: 177-204 +8.31

hopefully I can make some back in the week before the RX bash, when I will be taking a temporary break from handicapping

Friday:

Pittsburgh +188

Vogelsong has put together decent starts in his last three (granted against some pretty weak offenses). With a decent offense, I think this line is a just a bit too overinflated to ignore.

Toronto +248

Last time these 2 pitchers met it was a 6-5 win for the Yankees. I see the value on Toronto as the big dog.

Detroit +101

Maroth has been pitching real well lately and the Detroit offense can definitely do some damage to Lowe. I also like what I am seeing out of the detroit relievers.

Seattle +143

Franklin has been improving, and the Seattle bats have been hot, hitting .303 over their last 10 games. Tampa is slumping bad on offense, only hitting .211 vs righties in their last 10. I give the mariner's a solid chance.

Texas +118

Statistically, Regilio has not been bad but he has not been getting the run support (only 2 total runs scored in his last 3 appearances - one in relief). Bedard has a 87.80 ERA over his last 3 starts, so this may be a chance for Texas to give Regilio some run support.

SYSTEM PLAYS: (67-39 +15.85): Florida -108, St Louis -144

drunkguy · Aug 7, 2004

Yesterday: 3-4 -0.99

YTD: 180-208 +7.32

Saturday:

Toronto +170
Toronto-NYY under 9 -110

Lilly has really has the Yankees number this year. He faced them twice in his last 3 starts, and gave up only 5 hits and 1 ER over 12.2 innings. Toronto lost both, obe because of a last bullpen meltdown, the other because of lack of run support (0-1 final score). Hernandez is also pitching well, so this should be a low-scorer.

Cleveland +148

Lee has been pitching absolutely horrible, but I have to think he is capable of better, especially against the Sox who are hitting .167 vs lefties their last 10.

SYSTEM PLAYS: (69-39 +17.85) no qualifiers today

drunkguy · Aug 7, 2004

Yesterday: 2-1 +1.48

YTD: 182-209 +8.80

Sunday:

Toronto +173

Lieber has not been performing well and Batista is the better starter. Toronto has burned me the last 2 days, but once again they value lies with them.

Minnesota +133

Silva is 1-0 his last 3 (team is 3-0). Mulder hasn't been terrific over his last 3, with a 1.59 WHIP and 5.32 ERA. He gave 8,8, and 10 hits in those games against NYY, SEA, TEX. Minnesota has been hitting well against leftiesd and their bullpen has been terrific. I like them as a home dog.

Cleveland +138

Contreras, after going on a nice run a few weeks ago, seems to be back to his sub-par self. Elarton actually pitching well and this line is a bit too high for what I see as a fairly even matchup.

SYSTEM PLAYS: (69-39 +17.85): St Louis -136, San Diego -127

drunkguy · Aug 8, 2004

Yesterday: 1-4 -3.27

YTD: 183-213 +5.53

This is truly a brutal run I am on right now. Almost have given back all of my early season profits. Nothing to do but keep chugging along and hope some of these breaks go my way

Monday:

Baltimore-Texas under 10 -109

Bacsik had a great outing against the Tigers for his first start, giving up only 4 hits and no runs over 7 innings on the road. Borkowski has also been pitching well with a 1.23 WHIP and 3.34 ERA. These pitchers combined are 0-4-2 under in their starts this season. Texas also not batting well lately, especially on the road. The 10 seems overly generous.

Toronto +192

Although Toronto continues to lose money for me, I see no choice but to back them again. Pitching matchup is in the favor, with Loaiza really underperforming (1.58 WHIP over his last 3 starts).

Oakland -104

This is a line I don't get at all. Oakland is way ahead in the starting pitching. Although the Twins bullpen has been lights-out, Oakland also has strong relievers, and I think Oakland will be ahead by enough at that point that it won't matter.

SYSTEM PLAYS: none

drunkguy · Aug 17, 2004

wow, I was all the way back o page 7...guess I missed a lot while in Vegas...

for some reason I cannot cut and paste into this box (i'm on a public computer), so I will just list the plays. If you want to see the write-ups, you will have to visit one of the other forums where I post (MW, OGD, FBZ, BP, SGA all have my plays). Will probably stay this way until I get my computer back

NYM +113
ATL +110
BAL +103
DET +150
CLE -115
SEA -105
MIN +125 (going against system play)

SYS PLAY: NYY -142

jaypaw · Aug 17, 2004

Wow

I'm on sea, NYM, BAL, and Cle as well

good luck to us

jaypaw · Aug 17, 2004

I'll save you the work:

Tuesday:

NY Mets +113

Zambrano has been great since jopining NY, including a 2-hit 7 inning start with no earned runs last time out against Houston. Jennings has not been effective at all this year.

Atlanta +110

I see this as a dead-even matchup and will take +110 on a 50-50 shot.

Baltimore +103

Lopez has a 0.94 ERA in his last 3 starts (ANA, TEX, NYY). Baltimore also has the hitting edge and a great bullpen that has an ERA of just over 1.00 in their last 3 games.

Detroit +150

Maroth is a little better than people give him credit for. He is undefeated in his last 3 starts with a 1.13 WHIP (OAK, BOS, CHW). Against the White sox he gave up only 5 hits and 2 runs in pitching a complete game. CWS gives up about 20 points in BA when facing lefties instead of righties, and they are only batting .185 against lefties in their last 10 games. The bullpen is shaky for Detroit and that is the only concern I have about this game, otherwise a very solid play.

Cleveland -115

Cliff Lee has been struggling, buyt he is still 10-4 on the season, including a 4-1 the only time he faced texas. IN that start he gave up only 4 hits and 1 ER in 6.2 innings. Erickson has struggled, and he probably will continue to do so against the strong Cleveland hitters.

Seattle -105

Madritsch has a 1.00 WHIP in his 2 starts and is facing a KC team that jusy cannot seem to win. Seattle has the offensive edge as well.

Minnesota +125

This is a fairly even matchup on paper. As usual, there is an overlay going against the Yankees, and it is worth a play here. However, there is a system play on the Yanks which I am fading for value.

SYSTEM PLAYS: NYY -142

drunkguy · Aug 18, 2004

2 system plays today:

Cubs -110 and San Diego -118

drunkguy · Aug 19, 2004

yesterday 1-1

Milwaukee +130

Systerm PLays: St Louis -151, C White Sox -137

drunkguy · Aug 20, 2004

yesterday 0-3

friday:

chicago cubs +113
pitt +158
LA -123
Cleve -108

drunkguy · Aug 21, 2004

yesterday 2-2 +0.05

Saturday:

Los Angeles -118

Weaver is undefeated in his last 4 and has not given up more than 2 ER in his last 5. His 3-game WHIP is 0.77.

Hou +150

Prior has not been a dominant starter this season and this is more a play against him at +150 than a vote of confidence for Houston.

Cincinatti -101

Harang has been pitching much better lately. He has a 1.17 WHIP over his last 3 against LA, SF, and STL. Webb is just horrible with a 4-14 record this year.

Tor-Bal over 9.5 +105

Cabrera has been getting killed lately, with a 7.63 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP in his last 3. Neither bullpen is doing well, with ERAs of 6.75 and 5.40 over their last 3 appearances. The umpire is an "over" one with a 18-6 record, 11-1 when the total is 9 or higher, with an average of 12 runs per game.

Kansas City +120 (2 units)

This line makes no sense to me at all. Callaway has only started 2 games this year, and has given up 12 hits and 8 runs in 5.2 innings (3.18 WHIP, 12.71 ERA) . Brian Anderson has been improving, with a against OAK, ANA, CHW. IN fact, in his last 5 (he has only started 6 since getting back into the rotation), he has given up no earned runs in games against the White Sox (9 IP, 2 H), Anaheim (7 IP, 7 hits, i unearned run), and Cleveland (6 IP, 2 H). Unfortunately, in those 6 starts, KC has only won 1. I think KC is very underrated today and so I will make it a rare 2 unit play.

SYSTEM PLAY: SF -125

drunkguy · Aug 22, 2004

yesterday 3-3 -0.71

Sunday - AL plays:

Anaheim +160

this line is just too high for an Angels team that is red hot and a Yankees team that is slumping. Escobar has pitched better than his 10-14 record might suggest.

SYSTEM PLAY: TEX -127, BOSOX -106

will post NL plays shortly

drunkguy · Aug 23, 2004

yesterday 2-1 +1.33

still don't have my computer back, still can't copy paste. he are the plays, writeups can be found on other sites:

Chicago WS -113
Cleveland +135
Minnesota -128

SYSTEM PLAY: Chicago Cubs -149

Fishhead · Aug 23, 2004

Thanks Drunkhead!

drunkguy · Aug 24, 2004

no prob fishguy. I got my computer back so I can cut and paste again now

Yesterday: 2-2 -0.13

YTD updated in next post

Tuesday:

Baltimore +175

Ponson has benn better lately than the beginning of the season. He hasn't lost since 7/4 and Baltimore is 6-1 in his starts since then. It still will be tough to beat Mulder, but the long odds here make it worth a shot.

Kansas City +240

Serrano has not been bad and lackey has struggles this year. Kansas City has not beat Anaheim all year, but I still think they have a chance tonight at this line.

SYSTEM PLAYS: none

drunkguy · Aug 24, 2004

yesterday 0-2 -2.00

YTD: 202-231 +6.53

Wednesday:

Philadelphia +103

Milton 13-2 on the year. Munro has not won in his last 5 starts. In his last 3 starts against the Cubs, Montreal, and the Mets, he has a 1.60 WHIP and 7.20 ERA

LA-MONTREAL under 9 +113

Lima has been pitching great with a 0.95 WHIP over his last 3. LA in somewhat of a hitting slump right now (BA .227 against righties L10).

Toronto +177

Schilling has struggles against the Jays this year. He is 0-2 in 3 starts against them. In those 3 games he gave up a total of 14 runs (over 20.2 innings) and 27 hits. Towers is pitching well with a 3-0 record his last three, WHIP of 1.11 and 2.37 ERA. This is a nice play at this line.

Kansas City +240

I will take another shot with KC. Wood has a 0.90 WHIP in his last 3, including a 7.2 inning start against Anaheim in which he gave up only 6 hits and 3 runs, as well as starts against TEX and OAK. Worth a shot at this price.

SYSTEM PLAYS (74-46 +13.58): none

drunkguy · Aug 25, 2004

yesterday: 0-3-1 -3.00

YTD: 202-234 +3.53

Thursday:

Houston +187

Backe has only started one game for Houston, but it was a solid effort against the Cubs (7 IP, 0 ER, 1.00 WHIP). Prior is overpriced considering the Cubs are only 7-7 in his starts this year.

SYSTEM (74-46 +13.58): Los Angeles -119.

drunkguy · Aug 26, 2004

Yesterday 1-1 dead even

YTD: 203-235 +3.53

Friday:

Los Angeles -129

Glavine hasn't been very good lately. Alvarez also not terrfic, but he has some good bats to back him up.

Tampa Bay +175

Redman has not been terrfic, Tampa hits well against leftis. Line looks a bit high to me.

SYSTEM PLAY (75-46 +14.58): Cleveland -117, Seattle -147, Anaheim -121