Tuesday Night - ANAHEIM at Boston

First I would like to bring up the fact that the bosox beat anaheim in this same pitching matchup earlier in the year WITHOUT manny in the lineup...

Anaheim swept the first two game series (@anaheim) and then the two teams split the second series at anaheim (4 games)

Now the two teams meet at boston and BOTH teams have lost only 2 out of their last 14 games (SOX having won their last 6 - 4 vs detroit, 2 of 3 at toronto, 3 of 3 at Chicago and Toronto and 1 of 3 vs chicago. ANAHEIM winning 2 of 3 vs minny, sweeping AT the yanks and vs KC, and taking 2 of 3 at Tampa) guerrero is .250 vs schilling and other than that these guys really havent seen him much.


Schilling has done great over his last 3 winning all 3 giving up a total of 4 runs in those 3 outings (2 at chicago and one vs chicago). He gave up 6 runs vs tampa 4 starts ago which was one game after his complete game 2 run win at tampa. Not bad over his last 5 games. 4 wins and one loss vs toronto chicago and tampa. When schilling faced anaheim he went 8 innings and gave up only one run, a homer to molina in the 3rd. By the time he came out to pitch in the bottom of the 7th his team had a 6 run lead as a result of an ortiz 3 run homer in the 6th, and in the 7th a kalper homer, an ortiz single driving in damon, and a nomar triple driving in Ortiz.

Lackey was removed from the game of course yet gave up 5 of those 6 runs. Over the last few games lackey has not looked particularly good giving up 5, 4, 3, 4, and 7 going back from his last start. However, his record tells a different story in that he is 2-1 over his last 5 and 6-2 over his last 10. I dont know why he allowed so many runs vs tampa KC detroit and minny ovewr his last 5 starts. He hasnt seen much of the redsox but in a nutshell - damon has not done well against him (.125 in 16AB), mintk and varitek have done ok at .300/.333 in 12-10AB, and manny roberts and ortiz have done well against him .444, .375, and .417 lifetime.



So now with all that out of the way - I'm gonna backtrack a little. Ive just basically made the case for the red sox to win the game but thats not the direction I'm going to take this...



What I see here reading through the lines is 2 relatively even teams, both on good streaks, and both with a good chance to win night in and night out. The sox have the pitching edge in terms of the starters and how they match up vs the opposing team - but the angels have a more balanced lineup

--->

The sox who have manny (.316) and ortiz (.301) consistently above .300, with Damon (.305) and varitek (.306) hovering for now above that mark and ONLY Millar (.292) and mueller (.289), anywhere near that area...

Anaheim in contrast boasts currently 4 players pretty consistently above .300 (erstad .316, Guerrero .329, Anderson .311, Guillen .304) with many more close behind than the sox (eckstien .290, glaus .296, figgins .294, and molina .287) - amazingly EIGHT players at or right around the .300 mark! - and their 'worst' is batting .271 (kennedy)!!!

To round out the lineup for the sox there is bellhorn roberts and cabrera who together average .261, and dont forget the rest of the "platoon" kapler (.271), mccarty (.246), guttierez (.236), and mintkewicz (.245).



Yes I know that team average doesnt 'factor out' the worst pitchers but the thing that it DOES do is - it gives you a stat that can be used to talk in for the most part - apples to apples terminology - with the variables on any given night being how strong or weak the pitching is, and how well the hitters live up to, or fall below or above their usual level of performance.

What boils down to a value play between two very similar teams with in my opinion offsetting and equalizing characteristics.

So now that all the words have been said I'll throw out the pick as if it isnt obvious already:

Anaheim +175 (bodog)

YTD 85-104 +16.23

I like this play a lot! Good Luck

agree here

TOO MUCH value on the ankles att his price. the way they are playing they shouldn't be $2 dogs to anyone in MLB - regardless of who is pitching.

I agree there is a lot of value with the Angels as the price is too high. However,Lackey has a 9.90 lifetime era at fenway and with Schilling this is their best matchup in the series. SOX WIN!!

Lackey may give up runs at fenway and I am not doubting that trend has a good possibility to continue.

My contention is that at a price of +180 (at some places) can you say with confidence that 64% of the time or MORE the runs lackey will give up at fenway will be more than the runs that Schilling will give up vs this anaheim lineup.

My answer to that question is NO I can say with SOME confidence that Schilling will give up less runs than lackey vs this anaheim lineup probably more than 50% of the time - but with ONLY Manny, Ortiz, and Roberts having success vs lackey (as defined as a lifetime average vs that pitcher of around .300) there is ALWAYS a chance - with a lineup with 8 of 9 averaging around .300 on the season - that they will stack up some runs of their own.

LOSS 0-1 -1.0
YTD 85-105 +15.23


having no regret over last nights loss I'm going with Sele tonight for the same reasons



Anaheim +133 (pinn)
Anaheim -1.5 +192

why is it that this line isnt different? Is someone out of the anaheim lineup?

Arroyo got rocked by these guys earlier in the year and here is the lifetime averages of the sox (that have faced sele more than 3 times):

 Johnny Damon .327
 Manny Ramírez .310
 Gabe Kapler .222
 Bill Mueller .222
 Dave Roberts .222
 Jason Varitek .176
 David Ortiz .125
Mientkiewicz .118


Damon and manny not so bad - the others well um...

here is the lifetime of the angels vs arroyo...

however NONE of these have faced him more than 4 times:

 Jeff DaVanon(out)0.667
 Casey Kotchman(hasnt played since june)0.667
 David Eckstein 0.500
  Chone Figgins 0.333
 Guerrero 0.250
 Galarraga 0.000
 José Guillén 0.000
 Adam Kennedy 0.000
 José Molina 0.000
 Raúl Mondesí 0.000

jaypaw, i thought you were a big sox fan!!!

I'm the biggest sox fan there is - and in a way its helped me get so far ahead this year, yet in another way its also held me back in many cases.

So far its a net positive for me on the season and even if I lose the 3.49 units that I put on them to lose tonight I'll still be ahead overall


GO SOX

i knew you were and when you like the other side
it makes the play look great. It's just bitter
sweet that's all. thanks for your plays i respect them.
ga

in case you (or others) are looking at this thread and havent been following my picks throughout the season

I must reiterate that about 90% of my bets this season have involved a game that the sox play in, and about 90% of those bets were AGAINST the sox.

I didnt start off this way - but in following this team I continue to see weaknesses that for some reason the books are not picking up (or maybe the books know they can get people to pay the prices they are putting out)

Dont get me wrong the team is doing very well

but ESPECIALLY with the injuries (pokey, bellhorn, mueller, foulke, mintk, williamson, on and on...) they always have a good chance to lose.

And - I hear this lineup touted as being so great - but the fact is Ortiz (among others) doesnt hit lefties too well (.244 I think - not terrible but still), and other than manny the hitting is very inconsistent. Varitek, and Damon are the most consistent after manny and ortiz - and mueller has always been above average for the most part - but beyond them you have streaky guys like millar, kapler, and mintK, - and these rest of them arent even worth mentioning (bellhorn 130k in only 108 games, gutierrez, mcarty)

My point is that if you cant count on the streaky guys then ortiz and manny cant afford to not be clicking unless Tek and Damon are overperforming...

They are on a tear right now but they'll lose their fair share the rest of the way I can tell you that.

good post "paw"