Oak/ChWS o10 +102 (pinny) (risk 3 units) - Jose Contreras has pitched much better since leaving the glare of NY and George Steinbrenner, but he still has occasional trouble finding the plate (4.1 BB/gm). He'll likely struggle tonight for 2 reasons. First, the A's are a very patient team at the plate, ranking 8th in the majors in walks. Second, Paul Shreiber will be calling balls and strikes. Shreiber's very low K/BB ratio (1.71 career) and 61.3% ball/strike ratio (MLB avg - 62.8%) will surely give Contreras fits. 57% of Shreiber's games have gone over the total in his career, including an amazing 39-18 record in the past 2 seasons. Mark Redman has less of a problem with walks, but his WHIP is the worst on the A's staff. When he gets behind hitters, as he is likely to do with Shreiber's strikezone, he gives up a lot of hits. Another factor is US Cellular Field, which is one of the best parks in MLB for hitting homers. With 2 of the top 9 teams in the majors in homers facing off here, and with both pitcher's prone to giving up the gopher ball (25 HR's each), it would not be surprising to see several balls leaving the park tonight. The 2 teams are pretty good defensively, but even the best fielders can't defend the base on balls or catch balls landing in the stands.
Tex/Minny u9.5 +101 (Pinny) (risk 4 units) - I can't believe this line won't come down to u9 or even u8.5 before game time. There is too much evidence that this game will go under. To start off we got Doug Eddings behind the plate. Eddings may be the best under umpire of all time. His numbers are so out of whack with the rest of the league, I'm surprised the league hasn't disciplined him. His 3.10 K/BB this year is WAY more than the 2nd place (2.74), and his career ball to strike ratio is 64.0%. It is not surpising then that his over/under record is 71-107, or that games that he has umped have averaged more than a run less than the league average over the past 6 seasons. This would be enough to get me to play this one, but there is more. Kenny Rogers has had a successful season, but he still struggles with his control. Doug Eddings will be a big help here. Brad Radke, on the other hand has no trouble with control, yielding only 18 walks all season. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him go walkless tonight. In addition to all that, these 2 teams rank 22nd and 24th in the majors in drawing walks. Also the 2 bullpens are very good, with bullpen ERA's of 4.26 and 2.83. Note that Texas's ERA (4.26) is higher than normal due to pitching in Arlington, where the ballpark factor is one of the highest in either league. Offensively, the high scoring Rangers average only 4.22 runs/game vs right handers away from their friendly home ballpark, and nearly 2 full runs per game less vs all pitchers!
Tex/Minny u9.5 +101 (Pinny) (risk 4 units) - I can't believe this line won't come down to u9 or even u8.5 before game time. There is too much evidence that this game will go under. To start off we got Doug Eddings behind the plate. Eddings may be the best under umpire of all time. His numbers are so out of whack with the rest of the league, I'm surprised the league hasn't disciplined him. His 3.10 K/BB this year is WAY more than the 2nd place (2.74), and his career ball to strike ratio is 64.0%. It is not surpising then that his over/under record is 71-107, or that games that he has umped have averaged more than a run less than the league average over the past 6 seasons. This would be enough to get me to play this one, but there is more. Kenny Rogers has had a successful season, but he still struggles with his control. Doug Eddings will be a big help here. Brad Radke, on the other hand has no trouble with control, yielding only 18 walks all season. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him go walkless tonight. In addition to all that, these 2 teams rank 22nd and 24th in the majors in drawing walks. Also the 2 bullpens are very good, with bullpen ERA's of 4.26 and 2.83. Note that Texas's ERA (4.26) is higher than normal due to pitching in Arlington, where the ballpark factor is one of the highest in either league. Offensively, the high scoring Rangers average only 4.22 runs/game vs right handers away from their friendly home ballpark, and nearly 2 full runs per game less vs all pitchers!
Another one...
NYM +188 over Flor (IIS) (risk 2 units) - This line is an overreaction to recent events, in my opinion, where the Mets have dropped 10 of 11 and the Marlins have won 9 of 11. For the year, these 2 teams have been pretty evenly matched, with both averaging 4.5 runs/game and the Marlins allowing only .25 runs/game less. The Marlins also face a righthander today, and they score .4 runs/game less vs righties. The 2 bullpens are pretty equal (3.03 ERA to 3.65), so the main difference between these 2 teams today is the starting pitcher. Carl Pavano is definitely superior to Jae Seo, but Seo just returned from a month long stint in the minors where he pitched well and he continued with his first start back vs the Dodgers last week (6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 5 K's, 3 BB). In addition, Seo has had tremendous success vs the Marlins - in 6 starts (3 last year, 3 this year) he has gone 4-1 and allowed a TOTAL of 8 earned runs. The Marlins have a vastly superior defense, but the Mets are actually helped by the fact that their top 3 leaders in errors may not be playing. Kaz Matsui is out, Mike Piazza often sits day games after night games, and Todd Ziele is a non-regular. Mike Piazza sitting is not necessarily a bad thing offensively, either. He hasn't hit a lick for over 2 months. His replacement, Vance Wilson, is not only a vastly superior defensive catcher (very important when facing the speedy Marlins), but he actually has outhit Mike this year. In addition, the Marlins will be attempting a 4 game road sweep, an extremely difficult thing to do against anybody, let alone a team that matches up well to you. Another thing going for the Mets is home plate ump Larry Poncino. I don't want to say that Larry plays to the home crowd, but his lifetime career record of 91-65 for home teams certainly shows that he might be a bit of a "homer". Finally, the Mets might have some additional incentive today after reading the remarks of Florida manager Jack McKeon after the Marlins victory last night ... "How many more games we have left with them, four? I'd like to make it 11." Met manager Art Howe would be smart to post these comments on every player's locker. That might be all these boys need to snap them out of their doldrums. In any event, +188 on the home dog Mets seems like a lot of value here to me.
NYM +188 over Flor (IIS) (risk 2 units) - This line is an overreaction to recent events, in my opinion, where the Mets have dropped 10 of 11 and the Marlins have won 9 of 11. For the year, these 2 teams have been pretty evenly matched, with both averaging 4.5 runs/game and the Marlins allowing only .25 runs/game less. The Marlins also face a righthander today, and they score .4 runs/game less vs righties. The 2 bullpens are pretty equal (3.03 ERA to 3.65), so the main difference between these 2 teams today is the starting pitcher. Carl Pavano is definitely superior to Jae Seo, but Seo just returned from a month long stint in the minors where he pitched well and he continued with his first start back vs the Dodgers last week (6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 5 K's, 3 BB). In addition, Seo has had tremendous success vs the Marlins - in 6 starts (3 last year, 3 this year) he has gone 4-1 and allowed a TOTAL of 8 earned runs. The Marlins have a vastly superior defense, but the Mets are actually helped by the fact that their top 3 leaders in errors may not be playing. Kaz Matsui is out, Mike Piazza often sits day games after night games, and Todd Ziele is a non-regular. Mike Piazza sitting is not necessarily a bad thing offensively, either. He hasn't hit a lick for over 2 months. His replacement, Vance Wilson, is not only a vastly superior defensive catcher (very important when facing the speedy Marlins), but he actually has outhit Mike this year. In addition, the Marlins will be attempting a 4 game road sweep, an extremely difficult thing to do against anybody, let alone a team that matches up well to you. Another thing going for the Mets is home plate ump Larry Poncino. I don't want to say that Larry plays to the home crowd, but his lifetime career record of 91-65 for home teams certainly shows that he might be a bit of a "homer". Finally, the Mets might have some additional incentive today after reading the remarks of Florida manager Jack McKeon after the Marlins victory last night ... "How many more games we have left with them, four? I'd like to make it 11." Met manager Art Howe would be smart to post these comments on every player's locker. That might be all these boys need to snap them out of their doldrums. In any event, +188 on the home dog Mets seems like a lot of value here to me.
Leaning towards the Mets as well....a few random stats
If Piazza does play...
Mike Piazza is 14-for-35 (.400) with one homer and six RBIs lifetime against Pavano.
Also....
Cliff Floyd is also hitting .400 (8-for-20) liftime against Pavano, with one homer and one RBI.
Seo (NYM)
1-0, 3.00 ERA vs. FLA in 2004
3-1, 2.06 ERA vs. FLA lifetime
Pavano (FLA)
1-0, 1.84 ERA vs. NYM in 2004
5-7, 3.63 ERA vs. NYM lifetime
GL
If Piazza does play...
Mike Piazza is 14-for-35 (.400) with one homer and six RBIs lifetime against Pavano.
Also....
Cliff Floyd is also hitting .400 (8-for-20) liftime against Pavano, with one homer and one RBI.
Seo (NYM)
1-0, 3.00 ERA vs. FLA in 2004
3-1, 2.06 ERA vs. FLA lifetime
Pavano (FLA)
1-0, 1.84 ERA vs. NYM in 2004
5-7, 3.63 ERA vs. NYM lifetime
GL
