Another one...
NYM +188 over Flor (IIS) (risk 2 units) - This line is an overreaction to recent events, in my opinion, where the Mets have dropped 10 of 11 and the Marlins have won 9 of 11. For the year, these 2 teams have been pretty evenly matched, with both averaging 4.5 runs/game and the Marlins allowing only .25 runs/game less. The Marlins also face a righthander today, and they score .4 runs/game less vs righties. The 2 bullpens are pretty equal (3.03 ERA to 3.65), so the main difference between these 2 teams today is the starting pitcher. Carl Pavano is definitely superior to Jae Seo, but Seo just returned from a month long stint in the minors where he pitched well and he continued with his first start back vs the Dodgers last week (6 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 5 K's, 3 BB). In addition, Seo has had tremendous success vs the Marlins - in 6 starts (3 last year, 3 this year) he has gone 4-1 and allowed a TOTAL of 8 earned runs. The Marlins have a vastly superior defense, but the Mets are actually helped by the fact that their top 3 leaders in errors may not be playing. Kaz Matsui is out, Mike Piazza often sits day games after night games, and Todd Ziele is a non-regular. Mike Piazza sitting is not necessarily a bad thing offensively, either. He hasn't hit a lick for over 2 months. His replacement, Vance Wilson, is not only a vastly superior defensive catcher (very important when facing the speedy Marlins), but he actually has outhit Mike this year. In addition, the Marlins will be attempting a 4 game road sweep, an extremely difficult thing to do against anybody, let alone a team that matches up well to you. Another thing going for the Mets is home plate ump Larry Poncino. I don't want to say that Larry plays to the home crowd, but his lifetime career record of 91-65 for home teams certainly shows that he might be a bit of a "homer". Finally, the Mets might have some additional incentive today after reading the remarks of Florida manager Jack McKeon after the Marlins victory last night ... "How many more games we have left with them, four? I'd like to make it 11." Met manager Art Howe would be smart to post these comments on every player's locker. That might be all these boys need to snap them out of their doldrums. In any event, +188 on the home dog Mets seems like a lot of value here to me.