Anaheim at BoSox - even teams, but a somewhat heavy dog?

I am going with Anaheim for tomorrows matchupp in boston (+175 @bodog)

Schilling won the last time out vs lackey and lackey hasnt been great lately AND schilling has the edge over lackey vs these hitters lifetime BUT the angels have a more consistent offense overall, more depth to their lineup from 1 through 9 (with the lowest average of the regular players being .271 (kennedy) and 8 of the other 9 hovering around or OVER .300.

The teams records are similar and almost identical over the last 15 games or so, and other than an edge to anaheim's bullpen there isnt much difference between these two - and certainly not +175 of difference...

GL

oops duplicate - thought I had lost my first one...

I almost went with you on ånalheim +175 dog, or an over, or hålos +1.5 runline (which doesnt concur with the way I look at overs/unders, along with Lackey's inability to keep runs off board), but the Schilling factor is keeping me off all 3. When hålos lost to Santana and twinkies the other day, i saw a vulnerability that topnotch hurlers can figure out their explosiveness.

santana is much better than schilling. i think the halos +180 is worth a shot.

http://forum.therx.com/eve/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=746097022&m=594103871

Sorry to have two threads going at once - but I thought I'd use this one instead since its title doesnt limit me to tuesday...

YTD 85-105 +15.23


having no regret over last nights loss I'm going with Sele tonight for the same reasons



Anaheim +133 (pinn)
Anaheim -1.5 +192

why is it that this line isnt different? Is someone out of the anaheim lineup?

Arroyo got rocked by these guys earlier in the year and here is the lifetime averages of the sox (that have faced sele more than 3 times):

Johnny Damon .327
Manny Ramírez .310
Gabe Kapler .222
Bill Mueller .222
Dave Roberts .222
Jason Varitek .176
David Ortiz .125
Mientkiewicz .118


Damon and manny not so bad - the others well um...

here is the lifetime of the angels vs arroyo...

however NONE of these have faced him more than 4 times:

Jeff DaVanon(out)0.667
Casey Kotchman(hasnt played since june)0.667
David Eckstein 0.500
Chone Figgins 0.333
Guerrero 0.250
Galarraga 0.000
José Guillén 0.000
Adam Kennedy 0.000
José Molina 0.000
Raúl Mondesí 0.000

I am not a multiple unit player for consistency purposes (and my own discipline purposes as well)

and usually when I am more confident I just throw in the alt RL - but today (though not recording it in my record here) I am going to put an additional amount on the anaheim ML


it could be a loser just like every bet could be - but I just can't see how to justify having anaheim at plus ANYTHING here when they have the better pitcher AND a more well balanced and well rounded lineup, AND they have had success against Arroyo this year!!!!

WHAT am I missing!!!!!!!

ok here is the conclusion I have drawn

rather than putting more onto the bet i am gonna take the huge chalk risk in the +1.5 (-149)


This is the one time I think all season that I will make a play like this - and chances are this will be the one that I will lose. But the liklihood of a win on this today SEEMS extremely high.


recap of what I have on tonights matchup:

Anaheim +133 (pinn)
Anaheim -1.5 +192
Anaheim +1.5 -149

"Sele allowed eight hits, struck out five and walked two..."



"(1999) Rangers knock Boston out of lead in wild-card race
Posted: Monday August 23, 1999 05:01 AM

ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) -- No question, Rafael Palmeiro is having a special year for the Texas Rangers. And the Rangers are going along for the ride.

Palmeiro homered and drove in two runs and Aaron Sele scattered eight hits as the Rangers beat the playoff-hopeful Boston Red Sox 6-0 Sunday night for the third straight time.

"I'm just enjoying the streak I'm in right now," said Palmeiro, who tied single-season club records for homers and RBIs by a left-handed hitter. "I don't know anything about these records until you guys [reporters] tell me. I have no idea why [he's on such a streak]. I just want to keep winning."

Palmeiro's sixth-inning solo homer was his 37th of the season, matching his Rangers record for a left-handed hitter set in 1993. His 117 RBIs equals Al Oliver's team left-handed mark set in 1980.

Palmeiro also set a team record with 29 RBIs in August, and tied Juan Gonzalez's 1992 team record with his 12th homer in August. His 351st homer, which extended the Rangers' lead to 4-0, tied him with Dick Allen for 53rd place on the all-time list.

In his last seven games, he has seven homers and 17 RBIs. Over the three-game series with Boston, Palmeiro finished with four homers and nine RBIs.

"Good month?" commented Rangers manager Johnny Oates on Palmeiro's August. "How about a good year. He's right on everything, whether it's a knuckleball or a fastball. It's a great time for him to have it."

Meanwhile, Sele allowed eight hits, struck out five and walked two as the Rangers dropped the Red Sox one game behind Oakland in the AL wild-card race. Oakland beat Toronto 4-3.

Rusty Greer also drove in two runs for the Rangers, who finished the season series against the Red Sox with a 5-4 edge against a possible playoff opponent.

Oates said Sele's strong outing was the key to completing the three-game sweep.

"When you play good ballclubs, it's all about how well you pitch," Oates said.

Sele (14-7) beat his former team for the second time in five career decisions. Sele, traded from Boston to Texas before the 1998 season, pitched his second shutout of the season and fourth of his career.

He was supported by several outstanding defensive plays and the Rangers turned double plays in the fourth and fifth.

Sele said beating his former team was nothing special.

"I look at it like they're just another good hitting team," said Sele, 4-1 in August. "You've got to keep the ball down against them. I just try and take the personality out of it and just pitch to them."

The Red Sox were 1-for-18 with runners in scoring position in the series.

"Sometimes you can score runs easy," said Boston manager Jimy Williams. "And sometimes it's like pulling teeth out of a duck."

Boston lost its fourth in a row and fifth in six games as knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (4-9) came out of the bullpen to make his first start since June 8. Wakefield allowed six runs and eight hits over seven innings. He struck out four and walked two.

Texas (75-50) improved to 25 games over .500 for the first time since Oct. 1, 1977.

The Rangers took a 2-0 lead in the first on Greer's run-scoring single and Palmeiro's sacrifice fly.

Texas made it 3-0 in the fourth when Lee Stevens doubled and scored on Royce Clayton's single.

After Palmeiro's sixth-inning solo shot, Ivan Rodriguez added a sacrifice fly and Greer had an RBI triple in the seventh to extend Texas' lead to 6-0.

Notes: Sele has won seven of his last eight decisions. ... Red Sox DH Reggie Jefferson was scratched from the starting lineup due to the flu. He was replaced by Butch Huskey. ...The Rangers are 27-11 since the All-Star break. ... Jeff Burroughs (1974) and Gonzalez (1996) previously had 28 RBIs in August for the Rangers. ... Tom Goodwin of the Rangers stole two bases in the seventh, his first steals since June 8. Goodwin appeared in one game between June 12 and Aug. 5 after straining his left hip flexor.
"

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/baseball/mlb/news/1999/08/22/redsox_rangers_ap/

ok then

12-5

here comes timlin

7 runs is ALL I NEED

I think that I'll go and watch the convention to save myself the heartburn...

This hurts - but it doesn't break the bank.

L-Anaheim +133 (pinn)
L-Anaheim -1.5 +192
L-Anaheim +1.5 -149
YTD 85-108 +11.74

despite a worst case scenario over the last two nights for me - I cannot be convinced to change my mind when a team gives up 7 runs TWO nights in a row.

If they score 10 and 12 runs night in and night out - then I will reconsider this strategy (or if I go broke with it!)

The fact remains that in 12 of their last 15 games they have scored less than 7 runs - and between toronto detroit and the white sox they werent exactly facing roger clemens on a nightly basis...


Colon has faced the sox twice this year - the first time no so great despite his teams 7-6 win. He only lasted 4 innings - BUT that was over the first half stretch where he and sidney Ponson were going out for burger king on a nightly basis. Since the all star break these two have stopped their secret late night eating affair and they have decided to pick things up.

In Colon's second meeting vs the sox he turned things around going 6 innings and allowing only 1 run.

Anaheim +128 (pinn)
Anaheim -1.5 +198
Anaheim +1.5 -153

Jaypaw- Just FYI, Boston feasts on flyball pitchers at Fenway. Flyball pitchers in general in Boston is a good go-against.

I'm on the total and hope Angels score 11 runs and whoop Boston's butt.

Gl

Rootin' for the Halos to get at least a run in 9th so I have a chance at the over.

Don't know how this game didn't go over... 20 men left on base.....

Busted hit and run rather than sacrifice after lead-off hitter reached in 9th?

Oh boy, damn Halos couldn't tie it up for me (us).

Could have been worse but on the other hand I couldnt have been more wrong losing largely over the last 3 days.


L-Anaheim +128 (pinn)
L-Anaheim -1.5 +198
W-Anaheim +1.5 -153

1-2 -1.0
YTD 85-108 +10.74

YTD 86-110 +10.74

I think this is a sign to me that I need to start packing it in to get in the NFL mindset

IMO the test for me to bet single units only has helped my discipline and for the most part resulted in a successful MLB season for me.

Admittedly going from being up over +30 units and ending up only up slightly over +10 is pretty aweful - BUT the lesson to be learned is that a little discipline goes a long way - because if I had not stuck to betting single units, and for the most part playing dogs - then the chances are that I would have ended up FAR FAR into the red.

GL guys

pretty proud of myself to hang it up early.

on the bright side jaypaw, you sox are on fire!!!


i see a redsox and cardinals matchup. i will definetly be posting post season plays, easy money there.


i have two huge plays in college foots this weekend.

this system is 19-5 the last 2 seasons, and i got two my brother.

all dogs which is good, and most of the time i win outright.


check out my thread tonight after the new mex game. or tomorrow morning if interested.

hope i help out. gl.

thanks for chiming in true

havent seen you in a while


who are you liking for college ball this weekend?



I havent even looked at a single word college football info yet


GL