I kinda like this on several notes. From last years numbers Navarre and Guidugli are almost a dead heat but a couple of things stand out. Guidugli is under house arrest for the time being... Cinci lost their top three receivers... Cinci must fill several defensive spots and focus on improving their defense against the run... if coaching against them I would definately try to run on them since I would probably be able to successfully and thus keep Guidugli on the bench. Guidugli has been more and more prone to forcing the ball and throwing untimely pics and there is some pressure on him to make better choices this year and I do think that can get in your head. The biggest factor IMO is that Michigan faced only one defense last year that allowed more than 28 points per game (i.e. Mich State 33) but this year they will face five defenses that allowed AT LEAST 32 points per game over the 2002 season... CMich 32, Houston 33, and Indy 37 all at home... Mich State 33 and Northwestern 41 away... also, although Oregon yielded 28 points per game last year they actually gave up 37.5 points per game against teams with winning records. I realize that Cinci will face a couple of real cupcake defenses as well (Army, Rhode Island and probably a not much improved UAB)... but Houston (Guidugli threw three TDs on them) is gone from their schedule and I expect ECarolina (Guidugli put up four TD passes on the Pirates) to be tougher on defense this year under their new defensively minded coach Thompson (right or wrong Panther?)... bottom line... last year with Michigan facing tougher defenses top to bottom Navarre threw one more pass per game, competed one more pass per game, completed .7% more passes, hit 1.75 versus 1.69 TD passes per game over Guidugli, and was 21/7 as opposed to Guidugli's 22/21 TD to int ratio... plus he improved IMO where as Guidugli took a step backwards... considering all this along with the fact that Michigan will face a number of softer defenses this year makes me believe that Navarre +1/2 for total TD passes is a decent play.
Hogjawl
Hogjawl
