Thoughts and questions leading up to August 30

NYReb · Jul 28, 2003

I always look forward to college football more than any other season. There's nothing like it. Trying to beat the point spread in this sport is a fascinating challenge that goes beyond the opportunity to pick up some extra money. I won my first bet back in high school in the 60's. I won my last one with Ohio St in the National Championship game. I can't wait for this season to begin.

I already have my eye on a couple of potential big games that take place over the first weekend. I'm not going to let the cat out of the bag just yet, but I'll be keeping a close eye on how the line develops. I think at least one of them is going to be way off, to the great benefit of those of us who spot it.

Just a few thoughts: Please chime in with your own comments.

Auburn is getting a lot of preseason hype. USC is a very good team who will be up for the challenge. Is Auburn's hype going to have them favored by more than they're like to cover? This is, to me, the season's first major collision of top teams.

An interesting meeting is Southern Miss heading out to play California. How much will Cal fall from last year, and how much will USM improve? Southern Miss will probably be favored in this game. Will they be the wrong favorite?

Clemson gets Georgia at home. Could this be a possibility for one of the season's first big upsets?

How will FSU do in their trip to North Carolina? Do the Tarheels play them close with the possibility of an upset? Or do the 'Noles come out charged up for a big year?

Alabama hasn't even had their first practice with their new coach. Will they cover the spread against an improving South Florida team?

Washington also has yet to practice under their new coach. At this writing, they don't even know who he will be. Will they be ready to go against defending champion Ohio St?

How will Wisconsin fare on the road against West Virginia?

For a really interesting point spread, take a peek at Indiana at Connecticut. Who you gonna go with?

Will this be the year Colorado finally beats Colorado St?

And finally, after the Big East went 4-1 in last season's bowl games, I jokingly posted "Break up the Big East!" I had no idea they were going to take me seriously.

Any comments on the above games or others, I'd love to hear about it. I'm hungry for some real college football discussion.

[This message was edited by NY Reb on August 01, 2003 at 12:31 AM.]

sammythesage · Jul 28, 2003

auburn might be hyped, but that game will be close to pick em in the end. usc didn't stop aub.'s running game that well last year and w/a 1pm start time; see the goblin's thread. trojans will melt like butter in 2nd half. saw usc come to fla field in 1980 when john robinson was actually winning ball games and about 10min.s into the 3rd q. they just wilted and the gators rolled w/a freshman qb of all things. it's called humidity and so.cal. doesn't know what it's like to be cooked like a lobster just standing on the sidelines; much less playing a football game in those conditions. should the game be moved to night, whole different ballgame.

BigPete · Jul 28, 2003

Auburn game is at 5:00 p.m./CBS.

Still should be hot as hell as it usually is, and I'll be a little drunker and louder.

NYReb · Jul 29, 2003

You guys are proving my point. We can all make a great case for Auburn, and the trouble is that most people are going to be on them. This is an indication that the spread might be a few points too much. Sammy, I find it hard to believe that the game will be a pick'em. It could be Auburn -3.5 and they could win by 3. It will be interesting to see how this one plays out.

bhg · Aug 3, 2003

This is what USC has going against them. Brand new QB - first game is in a hostile environment against arguably the best LB's in the nation. New running game with Dennis - who is a gamebreaker but we're talking a whole new starting backfield and again Auburn's LBs.

Looking on Auburn's side - team finished with momentum last year, upseting PSU in the bowl. Young Qb plays well end of year, first full year starting. Team features 3 RB's who arguably could all be All SEC if on their own teams. Cadillac, Ronnie Brown and possibly the best of all is juco transfer Brandon Jacobs.

USC has mike williams but I'm not sure how they'll get him the ball enough to make a difference. Couple in revenge from a hard fought game last year - auburn will be ready.

I saw this game open as a pick when someone posted some lines a couple weeks ago. Pick or -1 - either way, that looks nice for Auburn. I'm sure it will rise

Could name rep be the reason the line is so low? Last time people saw USC they saw Palmer win the heisman and the team ripping through Notre Dame and Iowa

NYReb · Aug 3, 2003

Hey Blown Head, you make a good case for Auburn. I'd say that spread has to rise. USC is going to be sweating their backsides off down in that Alabama humidity. It's hard to anticipate until you actually experience it. Still, USC has that talented defense that could hold down a typically vanilla Tuberville offense. Unless those RBs of theirs really are that good...

BigPete · Aug 4, 2003

I've seen analysis out the yang for the AU/USC and cant find an edge. To take USC youd better be confident in the QB, and no one knows who that is and he wont be a Palmer. To take Auburn, is basically taking last years team at the end of the season. Not much has changed. USC was probably the best team at the end last year, but how will that change with losing the Heisman. It will be a great matchup. One thing for certain is that Auburns 4 RB's are for real. Since there is such depth, Carnell and Tre will probably see some time returning punts and in the reciever slot. Brandon Jacobs will be in the game for 4th and long, but still has a lot to learn before he starts.

Both teams have great D and O lines and are pretty even. AU's linebackers take the cake, with a moderately weak secondary which worries me with BMW. Both teams special teams our questionable, which with these 2 defenses it could easily come down to the kicking game.

There is talk of the true freshman having a chance at QB at USC, which could lead to disaster being the first game is a revenge game in the hot ass south, at night vs an avengeful team and crowd.

Tough game to cap.

NYReb · Aug 6, 2003

Nice post, BigPete. I agree totally. I see the game as being won by a field goal, but by whom?

For something a little more obtuse, does anyone have any thoughts on the Cal-Southern Miss game? Cal lost a lot from last year, but they have a great coach and they'll be at home. USM has good talent, but will be traveling cross-country. Any feelings about this game out there?

Proman · Aug 7, 2003

Cal has supposedly has some JUCO recruits that are expected to contribute. Keep in mind that they will have already played a game the week before. Anyway, I am not sure that I would trust Southern Miss in the role of a road favorite against what could be considered a step up in class. (Pac 10 vs. Conference USA)

silver7 · Aug 8, 2003

Yeah isn`t this just the best time of the yr in sports coming up? Love em all but CFB is numero uno for me. I see the USC gm as an under if you can get a total. I also like S. Fla. and Miami Oh, they have a very good QB and will be tough. Haven`t seen a line yet. Opening wk has some great games. Best of luck to all for the coming yr, hope we ALL kick ass!

BigPete · Aug 8, 2003

I like the under on USC/AU too.

Scott4USC · Aug 9, 2003

It looks like USC will be starting Matt Lienart for the AU game. He has come out looking good in the first 3 practices. He is a Redshirt Soph. and was highly recruited out of high school, so he has talent.

I know everything inside and out about USC, so if you have any questions about the game, let me know and i will answer them best i can. Here is my brief forcast for this game.

Weather will not play a factor in the game. Also Jordon Haire stadium is tough place to play but this USC team has played and exceled in very tough places before. USC always plays one of the toughest schedules year in and year out.

USC is LOADED at WR and AU will not be able to stop our recievers.

USC upgraded at every position last year except they downgraded at QB.

USC strength is their DL (#1 in nation) and no runner last year rushed for over 100 yards against this DL and everyone is returning. Plus this year we have depth, something we did not have last year. Pretty scary.

If USC gets average QB play, and makes some bad mistakes, the score will be 23-17 either team winning.

If USC QB emerges (and is looking strong in practices so far), USC will win in double digits. There is no way AU will stop USC recievers. Just get them the damn ball. And the best part is USC has good OL, so AU drops back and USC will be able to pound them.

FIGHT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

sammythesage · Aug 9, 2003

HOMER, need to be on espn message board or something. one learns quickly about betting w/rose colored glasses. weather will not be a factor; LMAO

Scott4USC · Aug 9, 2003

For your information, USC has one of the top S&C programs in the country. DId you get a chance to watch USC last year? USC dominated teams in the 2nd half because we were better conditioned. To add to that, last year USC had ZERO depth and this year we have plenty of depth at most positions, especially DL. This USC team had 100% particaption in summer workouts. Lastly, the weather here in in L.A. has been hot and humid.

Yes i know there is more humidity in Alabama, but i often compared the degrees and humidity and they have been pretty similar most of the time this summer. Overall weather will not be a reason USC loses. Weather will not be much of a factor at all. Especially the game being played at 5pm in Alabama, much better than 12pm or 3pm.

Last year only Ohio St. was as physical and conditioned as USC.

sammythesage · Aug 9, 2003

me thinks usc would've beaten ohio st last year! me thinks you need to read up on humidity and actually check the diffences btw ala. and so cal. me thinks you make more money by not betting on teams you have personal interest in. the 1st reply bt me was a flame and apologise.

Scott4USC · Aug 9, 2003

Its cool, and i don't know a whole lot about humidity, but I really don't think it will be a problem. Many AU fans think differently.

I actually made most of my money betting on USC. I never bet against USC, but i did go 7-1 ATS betting on USC. Only loss was betting USC over Kansas St. So yes i am huge fan of USC, but i do not always look at things through Cardinal and Gold glasses.

As of right now i am not betting the USC/AU game because i think game can go either way. However, i will be watching the USC QB's in practice and reading about their progress, and if the starting QB looks strong, i will lay a big number on my Trojans.

BTW, i also think USC was the best team in the nation last year, too bad USC played and always plays one of the toughest schedules year in and year out and other teams schedule cream puffs.

I think USC would have beat Ohio St. by 20pts and Miami by 7pts. (Miami would hve taken USC more seriously)

FIGHT ON!!!!!!!

NYReb · Aug 10, 2003

Proman, thanks for your response to my question. Cal does have a game the week before, and they say a team makes the most progress between the first and second game. Still, USM has as tough a defense as you will find, step up in conference or not. And they have knocked off many ranked teams on the road. Should be interesting.

Silver7, you are right, college football is the very best. Nothing compares to it when it comes to excitement.

Scott4USC, I've never taken a capper very seriously who refers to one of the teams as "we." Now I'm not saying you're wrong about anything you've posted. You might know USC better than anyone. But an important factor of capping is knowing the other team just as well. I think you are totally underestimating Auburn. They are every bit as talented as USC at every position. USC could win, but if they win by double-digits it would be a tremendous shock to my system.

Not that my system haven't been shocked before

Take care.

Scott4USC · Aug 10, 2003

Sorry for using we, but i am a manager for the team. I am also a huge football fan, so i sort of refer to USC as we. I however do respect Auburn and as of right now i think the game will go either way.

Just an update, today USC has first scrimmage in pads, and the #1 QB struggled today, so that is dissapointing news. Also our field goal kicker was horrible. Otherwise the whole team looked great, especially the frosh RB Reggie Bush (who was ranked #1 RB out of high school)

ATX · Aug 11, 2003

thanks for the info Scott.

keep it coming!!

NYReb · Aug 11, 2003

Scott, don't apologize for using "we." They are obviously your team, and that's great. I just meant that in general when someone uses "we" when capping a game, it often indicates that they know their own team a lot better than they know the opponent. I have no idea how well you know anything. You could know Auburn inside and out for all I know.

I appreciate your info on USC. Please keep us posted. How is Bing doing at safety? Supposed to be a stud this year, isn't he?

Also, I am very impressed with the Trojan's defensive line. If anyone can hold the Auburn RBs in check, these guys can.

Please keep contributing your insights, and take care.