RAS Analysis: Gonzaga vs Saint Joseph's (+2.5)

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Season record: 0-0

One play for Friday:

Gonzaga vs Saint Joseph's (+2.5) - MSG - 6:40pm Pacific
The Red Hawks finished 23-7 last year and earned an NCAA bid. They would have done even better if not for a late season injury to starting guard Delonte West who at the time was the teams leading scorer. He ended up missing four games but even when he did return he was not himself. He has since fully recovered and is poised for a big season. Point guard Jameer Nelson has returned for his senior season after testing the NBA draft waters. He was not guaranteed to be a first round pick among a strong class of guards but has been named a preseason 1st team all-American by both AP and ESPN among others. He is clearly one of the best players in the country. The type that can make all of his teammates better and take over a game. West and Nelson easily make up one of the top backcourt combos in the country. Junior G/F Pat Carroll (brother of ND's Matt) led the A-10 conference in 3-point shooting percentage (.450) last season on his way to averaging 11.5ppg. He reportedly has improved his all around game in the offseason. Sophomore center Dwayne Jones and junior forward John Bryant were not starters last year but played the bulk of the minutes at their respective positions. Neither is going to put up big points but they don't have to. Senior guard Tyrone Barley provides experience off the bench and highly touted freshman forward Robert Ferguson is expected to contribute immediately inside. The great thing about SJU is they play superb team defense. Last year they led the nation in field goal percentage defense and finished 7th in scoring defense. They do lose one starter but return their top six players in minutes played so the defense should be just as good if not better.

Everyone remembers Gonzaga's great performance in last years NCAA tournament vs Arizona in which they lost in double overtime. However, overall I believe it was more of a down year for the Zags. They lost nine games (had only lost 11 in previous two seasons), did not win their conference tournament, and went 1-5 in non-conference games vs NCAA tournament bound teams. Tonight's opponent is certainly NCAA bound. The Zags lose starting point guard Winston Brooks who was underrated in my opinion plus reserve banger Zach Gourde who gave them quality minutes off the bench. An inexperienced yet touted cast of newcomers joins four returning starters but they still do not have a proven true point guard. It is very unlikely this team will be able to gel this early in the season. Arguably Gonzaga's best player, junior big man Ronny Turiaf, will most likely miss this game while still recovering from a foot injury. He reportedly practiced for the first time in two months on Thursday and could see very limited minutes but I am guessing he will not play. Athletic Washington transfer Erroll Knight has been slowed by ankle and finger injuries but is expected to play. Head coach Mark Few reported that six players have missed significant practice time this preseason and he has not had a single practice that everyone has participated in. This hurts with a game so early in the season when practice time is already in short supply. Gonzaga just is not built to defend a quick guard like Nelson. He had 34 last season at Gonzaga in a SJU OT win despite shooting just 1-of-6 from 3 point range.

Gonzaga has an aggressive upcoming non-conference schedule. They play Georgia, Stanford, Maryland, Missouri, Washington, and Washington State consecutively all before New Years. St Joseph's did not know if they would have Nelson back and their non-conference schedule is rather weak. That makes this game even more important for their eventual RPI ranking and NCAA seeding. They will not have as many opportunities as Gonzaga to notch those always talked about "quality wins". St Joseph's fans broke the Coaches vs Cancer tourney record by selling 3,600 tickets as of Tuesday. More than 1,100 students are expected to make the trip which remarkably accounts for almost 1/3 of the schools 3,850 student body. Take the points.

Saint Joseph's 1 UNIT

Good luck,

Edward
 

The Great Govenor of California
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I like Gonzo though, Blake Stepp can score 9 pts in a minute like he is eating a taco. Gozon's parts are inter-changable so a player being out doesnt effect them like it does other teams. And they still have Viloette to clean the glass, and Fox is a banger. StJoe is a 1 man show, and Few can make halftime adjustments, maybe a box-1 on Jameer
 
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As I indicated in the analysis, West was actually the teams leading scorer before being injured. I don't think a box and one will work.

Line is down to +1.



Edward
 

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As for the box and one, which Bulldog would be the "one"...Stepp doesn't have the footspeed, as Right Angle stated, Knight is hurting and Bankhead can't D him up...

St. Joe's will give the Bulldog backcourt all it can handle trying to get the ball up the court and into their offense.\

St. Joe's is the play here, although I would add that if Turiaf were healthy, it would be a much tougher call.
 

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