Hoops Today

5*Pittsburgh

Alabama is decimated by graduation and Mo William's early departure to the NBA.With Erwin Dudley and Kenny Walker gone, Alabama will most likely start Chuck Davis and Evan Brock,two unproven sophomores..Kennedy Winston will start at small forward.Winston has talent,but he plays out of control most of the time.Alabama's struggles began when Winston was incorporated in the lineup after the first 10 games.He did not defer to Dudley or Walker and simply tried to create too much when it wasn't necessary.I believe he will once again try to do too much,especially since he is not playing with any established players.Here is a breakdown of Alabama's probable lineup:

PG-Antoine Pettway-usually provides a spark off the bench.Inherits the position by default.Pettway is a decent player,but he is more of a shooting guard.
SG-Earnest Shelton-Inconsistent with his jump shot.This allowed defenses to collapse on Walker and Dudley last year.Defenses will be able to play tight on him since Alabama has no inside presence.Shelton also dislocated his ring finger(shooting hand) 3 days ago.He is probable for Friday's game.
SF-Kennedy Winston-has injured knee
PF-Chuck Davis
SF-Emmett Thomas-Thomas showed flashes last year.If he is on the court,Winston may move to PF.

Pitt has suffered some losses as well,most notably Brandin Knight,but they return several key players.
PG-Carl Krauser takes over for Knight at the point.Have to be honest,don't know a thing about him other than he averaged 6 points a game last year and the Pitt coaching staff is high on him.
SG-Julius Page-This will be his team now that Knight is gone.Look for a big season.
SF-Jaron Brown-A solid versatile performer who averaged 11 points last year.Good defensive player.
PF-Chevon Troutman-Big East 6th man of the year.Will provide solid inside presence for the next two years.
C-Toree Morris-has good size(6-10) and is somewhat experienced.

Gameplan-Alabama's personnel losses are obviously more severe than Pitt's.Most importantly,Pitt will enjoy a coaching advantage.The Pitt players supported Dixon's hiring and will want to perform well in his first game.Gottfried has proven only that he is a good recruiter.Alabama's offense was described by Kentucky assistant David Hobbs as the easiest to defend in the SEC.
Keys to the game:
1.Brown's defensive capabilities prevent Winston from having a monster game.
2.Troutman has his way with the inexperienced Tide front line.
3.Page's big game capabilities win out.

PITT BY 15

[This message was edited by Low Tide on November 21, 2003 at 03:56 PM.]

[This message was edited by Low Tide on November 22, 2003 at 10:26 AM.]

[This message was edited by Low Tide on November 24, 2003 at 12:44 PM.]

[This message was edited by Low Tide on November 25, 2003 at 01:01 AM.]

This is Pitt's first game w/o Ben Howland, however they are using the same system, etc. I think you are on the right side on this. Krauser can be a pretty effective PG. Pitt has better size this year - they play tough D as well.

My first play pushed as Chuck Davis surprised Bama fans with his aggressive play.Pitt missed 3 free throws in the final minute to miss the cover.Tonight's write-ups will be brief as I am on a tight schedule.

2*Marshall+2-Wilmington has lost Blizzard and 2nd leading scorer Craig Callahan.Marshall returns most of their best players.The only wild card is first year coach Ron Jirsa as it may take time to adjust to his schemes.Still,Wilmington will be searching for an identity without Blizzard to lean on.

2*Witchita State-The Shockers should be the favorite to win the MVC this year.Star forward Jamar Howard returns as well as all of the top players from last year.LaSalle has some good young talent and will not be an easy out this year, but the Shockers get it done on a neutral floor.

2*Oregon-Oregon is becoming a team that just reloads instead of rebuilding.

2*Mississippi-Harper and Reed form one of the best tandems in the SEC.They have holes to fill elsewhere, but should handle the Indians at home.

I have been leaning to USC as well,but too many injuries.Don Best has Curtis listed as questionable as of 2:50 CST.Guenther,Smiley, and Oliver are out as well leaving them vunerable to the physical inside play of Kann and Williams.

.YTD 2-2-1 -.2 units
Marshall struggled last night and it did not help that they played the first 10 minutes without Marvin Black(injured hamstring).This was not on the Don Best Premium Service,but what can you dle Miss?

2* Northern Illinois-13 1/2
This is a lot of points,but it comes down to matchups.E.Illinois lost Henry Domercant(28 ppg) and J.R.Reynolds,their only other double figure scorer from last year.N.Illinois is generally regarded as the MAC's best defensive team.The Huskies play several aggressive zone schemes and should throttle a team that will be struggling to score.

Passing Thoughts-these may become plays later today
Stanford should play pinball with a team that had missed the Big Sky tournament for 6 years until they squeaked in last year as the 6th seed.(Only 6 of 8 teams play in the tournament.Sacramento State lost their top 3 scorers from that team, so it looks to be another rebuilding year.

Yale played UConn well,but not going to read too much into that since it was the first game of the season.Still think they have enough to take Eastern Michigan.The Eagles will probably patrol the basement of the MAC this year.

Boston Collegegraduated Troy Bell and Ryan Sidney left for personal reasons.They will struggle from the outside this season,but they have a powerful inside duo with Craig smith and Uka Agbai.App.State lost 4 starters from last year and two of those were all-conference selections.B.C. should have enough to get the job done here.

N.Illinois led by 12 at halftime and by as many as 19 in the second half,but put it on cruise control in a game that was not as close as the final score.Nevertheless:
YTD 2-3 -2.3 Units
Passing Thoughts 2-1 I will post these to see how my opinions fare.They might prove to be good fade material if nothing else.

4*Richmond-The Spiders play tough defense and do not turn the ball over(school record for fewest turnovers last year).With four returning starters and Reggie Brown back after a one year absence,the Spiders will be looking to return to the big dance.San Francisco is improved,but not tonight.

3*West Virginia-1st Half-3 1/2
2 1/2 *West Virginia -61/2
The Mountaineers return all 5 starters from last year including sharpshooter drew Schifano(20 ppg,3rd Team All-Big East 6-10 Kevin Pittsnogle(All-Rookie team).JMU returns 2 starters and will be trying to integrate 7 new faces this year.They beat Furman by 6,but they should be out classed tonight.

Passing Thoughts
Colorado should have too much inside muscle for Pepperdine tonight.Vandy should be able to take advantage of Indiana's graduation losses.Indiana's Lynch is questionable,leaving the Hoosiers very thin on the inside.

Nice to get a couple of easy wins.
YTD 5-3 +7.2 units
Passing Thoughts 3-2

I really don't care for tonight's card.No official plays,but I am debating 3 games.Please share your opinion if you have a really strong feeling for a game.
Passing Thoughts:
Michigan State +8 1/2 Two good teams.Simply taking Tom Izzo and the generous points.

Xavier -8 1/2 Ball State is severely weakened by the loss of Theron Smith and Chris Williams.If Xavier's perimeter trio gets hot,it should be an easy cover.

[This message was edited by Low Tide on November 25, 2003 at 01:47 AM.]

YTD 5-3 + 7.2 units
Passing Thoughts 4-3(opinions only)

1*Syracuse 1st Half-5 1/2
1*Syracuse-10
Despite the loss of Carmelo,the Orange have plenty of returning firepower.Warrick,McNamara, and Edelin are the 3 leading returning scorers.It will be interesting to see Syracuse's 2 Parade All-American forwards,Terence Roberts and Demetris Nichols.

The 49ers should develop into a strong team by season's end.Calvin clemmons provides double double potential while Demon Brown and Brendan Plavich are solid 3 point shooters.The 49ers prize recruit,7-0 Australian Martin Iti, struggled against GW as he picked up 4 fouls in 5 minutes.Charlotte will also bring 2 JUCO transfers into their front line rotation.

Big home court edge to Syracuse.17-0 last year and there could easily be over 25,000 tonight to welcome the defending national champions.Syracuse's 2-3 zone is tough to exploit and while the 49ers will be a dangerous team this year,they will be on the short end tonight.

YTD 5-5 +4.7 Units
Passing Thoughts 4-3

Lights out shooting by Charlotte.If the 49ers had shot 55%,they would have lost by double digits as Syracuse shot the ball extremely well also.I guess Charlotte does not need more time to gel.

Not much on the card for Thursday,but I see a couple of good opportunities in the following days.For Friday:

3-5*Air Force -Depends on line
I love this matchup.This will be Coach Joe Scott's best team since he arrived 4 years ago.The Falcons give opponents fits with their Princeton offense.Running the show will be 3rd team All-MWC Tim Keller.Other returning starters are undersized power forward Joel Gerlach and wingman A.J.Kuhle.The Falcons major weakness is obviously their rebounding,but this should not be as much of a factor here as Navy are even smaller than the Falcons.The Middies lost 4 starters off a 20 loss team and have already lost by 33 to South Carolina and 17 to Belmont.

The Falcons are a low scoring team so you can't lay too much lumber here,but a team that no one in the MWC wants to play will handle a team picked to finish next to last or last in the weak Patriot League.Will make star rating when line comes out.On Saturday,it should be a 5* play on a game I have had circled for three weeks.Happy Thanksgiving to all.

I assume that they don't post lines for Patriot League teams.I cannot find an Air Force-Navy line anywhere.The game is still scheduled as far as I know.Can anybody clue me in?

No write-ups today.It's football day.
3*Georgia Tech+2 1/2
2*Arizona-1 1/2
1*UConn(1st Half)-4 1/2
1*SMU -6

It's unfortunate that they don't have Navy on the rotation so my Friday 5* is canceled.Air Force pounded them from the beginning.45-20 at halftime.86-46 final.I will count that game as an opinion win,though.

YTD 7-7 +4.3 Units
Opinions 5-3(No units)My smaller plays are not doing well.Will try to improve so they don't become fade material.1-2 1/2* (4-7) 3-5* 3-0

5*Providence - 12
5*Providence -6 1/2 1st half
Last year,Bama beat the Friars by 8 in Tuscaloosa.Bama is coming off 2 sloppy home victories-6 over LA Tech and by 7 over SE Louisiana.Winston is the leading scorer,but he is only shooting 34%.As a team,Bama is shooting only 41% and look for a further decrease as they play better teams.Chuck Davis continues to post decent numbers in the paint,but Providence will not be surprised by him as Pitt was.Leading the Friars' attack will be 2nd team All-Big East forward Ryan Gomes(18 pts.,9 reb.).All of the other starters return and they are joined by Abdul Mills,who missed last season but was their leading scorer 2 years ago.

Bama is dreadful on the road and the coaching is suspect.As one SEC coach said,"Alabama can only beat you if they have better players than you."That will not be the case here.The Friars have the look of an NCAA tourney team and they will avenge last year's defeat.
P.S.I know I picked against Bama on my other 5*,but I am a huge Tide fan.This is just a good chance to make some money.

3*Gonzaga-13
3*Gonzaga-6 1/2 1st half
The Zags have everything you need to make a deep tourney run.Turiaf,Steppe, and Violette need no introduction here and Mark few is an excellent coach.The Bulldogs lost their 2 stars from last year as well as their coach after the academic scandal.The Bulldogs will have 5 senior starters, but will not have the depth necessary to win on the road.

2 1/2*Wisconsin-15
2 1/2*Wisconsin-7 1/2 1st Half
The Badgers return 4 double digit scorers from last year's Big 10 championship squad.Their lack of size may be alleviated with the arrival of 6-11 Parade All-American,Brian Butch.Bo Ryan's club plays tough defense and will overwhelm a poor shooting Rutgers team picked to finish last in the Big East.

[This message was edited by Low Tide on November 29, 2003 at 12:04 AM.]

LowTide, Brian Butch(wisky) has red shirted this year. Check out a box score or something after you read these little bits out of magazines (and before you post them here).

Sorry to offend you party boy.I check box scores,injuries and the like.I missed that one.