I need to get a copy of that book. Have you read it? There are some strong 2nd half systems that I am working on, but I need a larger data base to make sure that the conclusions are accurate. Do you or anyone else have any idea where to find a database with lines made at halftime for the 2nd half (totals as well)?
I've always been intrigued by second half plays but I've never done one. I can't get to a puter on Sundays when I'm out at bars or bashes, and my local has never offered them. One thing I have always noticed about halftime scores: If the dog is winning SU at halftime, the favorite won't cover the original spread at game's end. Can anyone tell me if this could be of use when making second half plays?
Don_Marco had this few days ago. I would say that if the dog is up at the half they cover the openning ATS at an astounding rate, not the halftime line. So even if the dog isn't SU at the end of the game they have won ATS. Maybe Don or someone could elaborate more. I do think it would be based on the openning line.
one of the better angles in sports
when the dog is winning at the half take them for the second half. Win rate circa 70% for the last couple of years off the top of my head. My 2nd half DB was destroyed (ex) so I dont have all the numbers. This angle is especially strong when the dog is at home (5-0 so far this year, I believe)
when the dog is winning at the half take them for the second half. Win rate circa 70% for the last couple of years off the top of my head. My 2nd half DB was destroyed (ex) so I dont have all the numbers. This angle is especially strong when the dog is at home (5-0 so far this year, I believe)
Right Hairy. When I have a favorite on the game line and I see them losing at halftime, even if just by a point, even if its a short fav, I basically write the game off and don't bother watching the second half. What I'm wondering is if this dog phenomenon can give me an edge when playing halftime lines. I'm not educated on how those lines are adjusted or even when I could play them.
I am not eduacated on NFL half time lines either. I did follow NBA alot and have pretty good grasp on them. NFL is similar type stuff. Let's say the Giants 12 pt dog vs. Rams. At the half Giants are up 7. Vegas puts out half time of Giants +4. Now the Giants have to not only win but win by a field goal. In this scenerio you would think vegas would give you 7.5 on the dog since the Rams were favored to win the game in the beggining. Typically, I don't like this line at all. But if a dog is up at the half by any score, and the line is close to pick. I like the dog in that scenerio better. I think this weekend alot of favs will ride early, and they'll be minus the points at the half but keep on riding.
the team that covers the full game spread also covers the 2nd half (halftime) spread over 80% of the time.
In the NFL the lines are adjusted at the half for the public who love to chase the favorite when they are losing at the half. EX: KC is +3 for the game and lead 24-16 at the half. Miami is -4 for the second which in essence is +4 for the game at that point. A bargain for the public who is uanaware of the trend. KC ML at the half is a gold mine for those who are. I believe DET was the first home dog leading at the half who lost on the second half line (+7) this season. There may have been some +8's out there though.
[This message was edited by ATX on 09-30-02 at 08:14 PM.]
[This message was edited by ATX on 09-30-02 at 08:17 PM.]
In the NFL the lines are adjusted at the half for the public who love to chase the favorite when they are losing at the half. EX: KC is +3 for the game and lead 24-16 at the half. Miami is -4 for the second which in essence is +4 for the game at that point. A bargain for the public who is uanaware of the trend. KC ML at the half is a gold mine for those who are. I believe DET was the first home dog leading at the half who lost on the second half line (+7) this season. There may have been some +8's out there though.
[This message was edited by ATX on 09-30-02 at 08:14 PM.]
[This message was edited by ATX on 09-30-02 at 08:17 PM.]
Northern Ice
If u wanna drop me a line at - pleasebequietplease@hotmail.com - I might have some further info of interest. Cheers /infopop/emoticons/icon_cool.gif
If u wanna drop me a line at - pleasebequietplease@hotmail.com - I might have some further info of interest. Cheers /infopop/emoticons/icon_cool.gif
UT-LONGHORN
Certifiably Crazy
From: uthustler@yahoo.com
Registered: 09-05-02
Posts: 232
Hey Dog, here is a write-up by a guy named Nolan at another forum site that I came across earlier this season and have been following it for the last 5 weeks in the NFL. I can honestly say it has made me some GOOD $$$$, with my most recent win being the UNDER 21.5 this past monday nite with PITT/COLTS. Thought id post so everyone can benefit. Sorry for the length.......
PART 1: GENERAL THOUGHTS
Just as there are "key" numbers is sides betting and in game totals, there are also key numbers in second-half totals. The key numbers are as follows: 17, 20, and 24.
What do I mean by a "key" number? What this means is -- the point total will land on these three numbers more often than any other. This is important because a line move from 18 to 17.5 is not nearly as significant as a line move from 17 to 16.5. You must look closely at games where the totals are a half-point off of key numbers -- such as 16.5, 17.5, 19.5, 20.5, 23.5 and 24.5
The most common total points scored in the second-half is 17.
Here's a breakdown of the most common point totals for the second-half, along with the percentages of how often this occurs:
17 -- 9.6 percent
21 -- 7.0 percent
10 -- 6.9 percent
24 -- 6.6 percent
14 -- 6.4 percent
13 -- 6.0 percent
MYTH: One myth is that games tend to go opposite in the second-half of how they went in the first-half. Many bettors believe if a game is high scoring in the first -half to bet UNDER in the second-half. The opposite is also widely believed. Statistics show this is simply not true. According to data from 1981 through 1998, the second-half REPEATS the same scoring pattern more often than not. The margin is very small, as 51.9 percent of games REPEAT, and 47.3 percent SWITCH.
HALTIME BETTING ANGLE #1
Bet the dog when the favored team is favored by more points in the second half than in the game itself.
This commonly occurs when the dog is blowing out the favorite, pulling off a "shocking" upset at halftime. Many bettors have a knee-jerk reaction and automatically go with the favorite in this spot to rebound big in the second half, which is a mistake.
Let's say the Rams are playing the Panthers on the road and Carolina is ahead 21-3 at halftime (we'll say the Rams committed several turnovers). The Rams are a 9-point favorite and are favored in the second half by 10 points. The Panthers are the play here in the second half, especially since they are a home dog. Now, they are confident. They are at home in front of the home fans. And, they can make their season with a huge upset win over their rivals. Here are the results of this trend during three different trial periods:
1998 season -- 80 percent winners
1994-98 seasons -- 60 percent winners
1981-98 seasons -- 56.8 percent winners
HALTIME BETTING ANGLE #2
When one team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
This trend is even stronger when the road team is ahead. What happens is this -- the winning team gets much more conservative on offense and rushes more than passes. This eats up clock time. The winning team can also bring in 5-6 defensive backs, since it knows the opponent will be passing more often. However, the opponent, which is losing badly and getting embarrassed sometimes will revert to fundamentals (i.e. "let's get one score first, then worry about playing catch up"). This happens often in games where the starting QB has gone down with an injury in the first half. Furthermore, if the winning team has the ball with under 5 minutes to play, they will often drive down the field and kneel at the opponent's goal line, instead of crashing in for another score. This means that anywhere from 1-5 minutes out of 30 minutes is wiped out so far as scoring chances. Finally -- in blowout games, field goals become less likely, since the losing team needs touchdowns to get back in the game. Instead of kicking a 33-yard field goal the losing team will often go for it on 4th down and goal or 4th and long. Odds are, the team usually will not convert or score. That puts the other team deep in it's own territory to start the next drive. Tick Tick Tick.
Here are the results of this trend over the two years that it was tracked by Mr. Granowski:
1998 -- 21 UNDERS vs. 13 OVERS (61.8 percent)
1997 -- 24 UNDERS vs. 10 OVERS (70.6 percent)
FIRST-HALF SCORING (TOTALS)
Let's look at some key numbers for first-half wagering, and try to determine which line openings and moves are more significant than others.
The most common number of points scored in the first-half of NFL games is 17. This is followed by 13, 20, and 24. Football is the only major sport that includes KEY numbers, because of the numerical combinations that are most likely to occur. For instance, if 17 points were scored in the first half, you can be almost certain that the halftime score is either 17-0, 14-3, or 10-7. This has some very important carry-over effects into the second-half -- which I will get into a bit later.
Here's a breakdown of the most common number of points scored in the first-half:
17 -- 9 percent of all games
13 -- 8 percent of all games
20 -- 7.9 percent of all games
24 -- 7.3 percent of all games
Judging by these figures, you should be wary of laying a half point on either side of these key numbers in the first-half. For instance, if you expect a low-scoring first-half and want to bet UNDER, 17.5 is a much stronger total to go UNDER than 16.5. That extra point means you pick up 9 percent of value. With 20 and 24, the same holds true. It is generally advisable (all other factors being equal) to bet OVER 23.5 and UNDER 24.5. The half point can play a really big role, when there is only 30-minutes of football to be played.
Most totals (for halves) fall somewhere in the 17 to 24 range. A very small number of games may have a first-half totals set at 16.5 or less (when there are two dominant defenses, or inclement weather). A few games have totals set at 24.5 and higher (usually Rams' games and teams with explosive offenses playing at home).
The actual average number of points scored in the first-half is 20.8
SECOND-HALF SCORING (TOTALS)
Here's a question: What do you think is higher scoring, the first-half or the second-half? I think most people would say the second-half. Many people think that since at least one of the teams gets desperate in the closing minutes of a game, more scoring is likely to happen. There is also the general view that it takes a series or two for the offense to get into the flow of the game and for the quarterback and receivers to establish a rhythm. Finally, there is the idea that both teams are fatigued at the end of a game, which favors offensive players who know their routes and intentions. It's very difficult for a tired defense to react.
I was surprised to learn that second-halves are slightly lower scoring than first-halves. It took me awhile to think about it, but the reasons for this now seem very clear. As I stated in "Halftime Betting Angle #2," one of the teams will not be as interested in scoring points -- as burning off clock time. If the team that's ahead has the ball in opponent's territory in the closing minutes, they will run off clock time, instead of running a wide-open offense. Also, field goals become less likely if the losing team needs touchdowns to get back to even. These factors contribute towards making the second-half slightly lower scoring than the first-half:
Average number of points scored in the first-half -- 20.8
Average number of points scored in the second-half -- 19.5
Here's a breakdown of the most common number of points scored in the second-half:
17 -- 9.6 percent of all games
21 -- 7 percent of all games
24 -- 6.6 percent of all games
14 -- 6.4 percent of all games
13 -- 6 percent of all games
Here is a powerful concept that you MUST remember if you have any interest in betting second-halves:
When compared with totals posted by oddsmakers, second-half point totals go UNDER 50.1 percent of the time based on the data. This might not seem important, but add the fact that PUSHES also occur 3.5 percent of the time. This translates to only 46.4 percent OVERS in the second-half over a 17-year period! So, this is a directional signpost that doesn't necessarily prove that betting UNDERS is profitable, but is sure does show that betting second-half OVERS is a sure way to lose money. if you are betting a second-half OVER, you better have a damn good reason!
THE AVERAGE ODDSMAKERS TOTAL:
The average second-half total posted by oddsmakers is 20.2 However, since second-halves produce only 19.5 point on average, this means there is a difference of .7 points. That fraction of a point might seem insignificant, but if you can pick up a half-point here or there off of key numbers (17, 20, 24, etc.), you clearly have value. You are not only getting .7 points in value by betting the UNDER, but you have the hook off a key number. Betting UNDER on totals of 17.5 and 20.5 would be excellent examples of this.
I am not suggesting to play UNDERS across the board. Nor am I suggesting to always bet the hard side of a key number. If a second-half total of 19.5 is posted, linesmakers are doing this for a reason. However, in a climate where OVERS seem to be the prevailing attitude, and given the shift upwards on totals over the actual point average, you should be playing more UNDERS than OVERS.
SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #3
This is closely related to the previous Angle (#2) But, it's even stronger. When the road team is leading at halftime by 16+ points, the UNDER occurs 60.5 percent in the second-half. OVERS occur only 34.9 percent of the time. It doesn't matter if the road team is favored or the dog. This happens for the reasons previously explained. But it's even stronger when the road team is winning big. A good example of this angle occurred when the Rams played at Detroit last season. The Rams were up big at halftime on the road in a Monday night game. In the second half, the Rams offense took it easy, not wanting to make things any worse of the home team. Meanwhile, the Rams defense continued to play with pride and was shooting for a shutout. They achieved the shutout win and the second half went UNDER easily.
Another angle somewhat related to the blowout theory is to consider that IF THE HOME TEAM IS WINNING BY LESS THAN 16 POINTS, the UNDER still comes in 52.6 percent of the time. This angle is not worth betting alone, but it's important to know that this means the OVER cashes only 43.4 percent of the time when the home team is leading by 16 or less points at the half. Those are horrible percentages.
SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #4
This might be the most powerful angle on the entire page. I will admit that I have not used this angle myself (since I just recently became aware of it) -- so I want to confess that I am on new territory here. Everything with this angle lines up perfectly -- the past history, the key numbers concept, and the logic. It is so powerful, in fact, that I considered keeping this private because I know other sites will cut and paste this angle and tout it as their own.
Again, I credit Mr. Granowski for running the necessary data. However, unless I am mistaken he did not highlight this eye-catching statistic from comparing the points scored in first-half to the eventual points scored in the second-half. Yes, indeed -- the type of game you see in one half is likely to be the type of game you will see in the next.
When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
(17-year results)
116 OVERS
150 UNDERS
56.3 percent UNDERS
When 13 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half
(17-year results)
132 OVERS
167 UNDERS
55.8 percent UNDERS
Interesting enough -- most of the other points scored (first-half) totals were about a 50-50 split. So, why are the games where 13 or 17 points scored in the first-half MORE LIKELY to go UNDER the total in the second-half than average?
First, oddsmakers are probably going to post a total slightly higher than 17 for the second half. If 13 points were scored in the first-half, it's unlikely to see anything less than 17 (although you will see 16 and 16.5 occasionally). This let's you capture the 17, the most common number to come up in half totals. If a game which was expected to be high scoring produces only 13 or 17 points, oddmakers may also over-react and expect an explosion to occur in the second-half. You will often see totals in the 20s when just 13 points were scored in the first-half.
If 13 or 17 points were scored, it usually means it's a CLOSE game where one misstep can cost the team the win. It means the score at halftime is probably either 7-6, 10-3, or 10-7. It’s a one possession ballgame. Under these circumstances, coaches and offensive coordinators are reluctant to take chances. They want a long sustained drives to take the lead -- or ball control to keep the lead. They value field goals and will gear the offense towards picking up 3-points -- which can be critical in a 10-7 type of game. They are not at all interested in airing out the offense and risking what is currently a very close contest. These factors contribute to UNDERS occurring in the second half.
SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #5
The converse of the argument above occurs with two possible OVER bets in the second-half, when conditions are right. Although this angle is not as strong (and not as statistically reliable, since there are far fewer trials), it still deserves being mentioned.
When 23 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
(17-year results)
74 OVERS
52 UNDERS
58.7 percent OVERS
When 30 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
(17-year results)
45 OVERS
37 UNDERS
54.8 percent OVERS
(An interesting thing was to compare results for 23 versus 24. One would think the results would be much the same. But when 24 points are scored, UNDERS prevail 116-113 -- so the kink in the 23 and 30 might be a key)
What I mean by "the kink" is that if 23 points were scored in the first-half, it usually means two touchdowns and three field goals. That's FIVE scores were made in 30 minutes. That's a lot of yardage and ball movement for one half. By contrast, the 24 may mean only 4 scoring possessions -- so while the actual points scored was HIGHER, the offenses may have racked up more yardage and are better primed for an OVER when 23 points are scored. This is my theory -- so I take what I say with a grain of sand. However, if you combine this with the fact that the number 30 also produces significantly more OVERS than UNDERS (and 30 is a close cousin to 23 -- given the scoring multiples), I'll stand on this hypothesis.
What's interesting is that NO OTHER first-half totals from 9 through 32 produced a profit for second-half OVERS -- except 26 (a rare occurrence given the number of trials but still a 30-22 edge for OVERS). Not surprisingly, 26 is semi-related to 23 as it probably means a game of many field goals. For OVER plays, 23 and 30 clearly stood out from the crowd.
SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #6
This angle is closely related to the previous two, but is more focused to try and identify a higher percentage of UNDERS and OVERS based on first-half results.
Let's take a look at games which are expected to be low scoring. By "low scoring" we'll take game totals set at 38 or less. This means that oddsmakers initially expected the game to be below average in scoring, which has ramifications for halftime betting.
Let's look again at the key number -- 17.
When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game totals is 38 or lower, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
(17-year results)
52 UNDERS
22 OVERS
70.2 percent UNDERS
Note that while the 17-point first half goes UNDER 56.3 percent on all games, the percentages are even higher when we narrow this down to games with totals at 38 or less. In fact, we get a 15 percent increase (based on 74 trials, I deem these results to be statistically significant)
On all games where the game total is 38 or lower, the second-half goes UNDER 52.4 percent while the OVER cashes only 47.6 percent of the time.
SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #7
Now, here's the converse angle. However, before relaying it to you, I must admit that this does not have quite enough trials to be beyond possible scrutiny. Note that games which are expected to be offensive shootouts -- based on game totals 42.5 and above tend to go OVER in the second-half when 21 points were scored in the first half.
When 21 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 42.5 or higher, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
(17-year results)
16 UNDERS
29 OVERS
64.4 percent OVERS
I believe this happens for a good reason. First, 21 first-half points probably means a halftime score of 21-0 or 14-7. It also means touchdowns have been reasonably easy to come by. Furthermore, the losing team will be much more interested in 7 points than a field goal. It also means that if the team in the lead goes ahead by 14 points, the losing team will panic and shoot for the end zone.
The only other first-half point total which produced significant data was 23.
When 23 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half.
(17-year results)
22 UNDERS
38 OVERS
63.3 percent OVERS
posted 10-23-02 12:21 AM
Certifiably Crazy
From: uthustler@yahoo.com
Registered: 09-05-02
Posts: 232
Hey Dog, here is a write-up by a guy named Nolan at another forum site that I came across earlier this season and have been following it for the last 5 weeks in the NFL. I can honestly say it has made me some GOOD $$$$, with my most recent win being the UNDER 21.5 this past monday nite with PITT/COLTS. Thought id post so everyone can benefit. Sorry for the length.......
PART 1: GENERAL THOUGHTS
Just as there are "key" numbers is sides betting and in game totals, there are also key numbers in second-half totals. The key numbers are as follows: 17, 20, and 24.
What do I mean by a "key" number? What this means is -- the point total will land on these three numbers more often than any other. This is important because a line move from 18 to 17.5 is not nearly as significant as a line move from 17 to 16.5. You must look closely at games where the totals are a half-point off of key numbers -- such as 16.5, 17.5, 19.5, 20.5, 23.5 and 24.5
The most common total points scored in the second-half is 17.
Here's a breakdown of the most common point totals for the second-half, along with the percentages of how often this occurs:
17 -- 9.6 percent
21 -- 7.0 percent
10 -- 6.9 percent
24 -- 6.6 percent
14 -- 6.4 percent
13 -- 6.0 percent
MYTH: One myth is that games tend to go opposite in the second-half of how they went in the first-half. Many bettors believe if a game is high scoring in the first -half to bet UNDER in the second-half. The opposite is also widely believed. Statistics show this is simply not true. According to data from 1981 through 1998, the second-half REPEATS the same scoring pattern more often than not. The margin is very small, as 51.9 percent of games REPEAT, and 47.3 percent SWITCH.
HALTIME BETTING ANGLE #1
Bet the dog when the favored team is favored by more points in the second half than in the game itself.
This commonly occurs when the dog is blowing out the favorite, pulling off a "shocking" upset at halftime. Many bettors have a knee-jerk reaction and automatically go with the favorite in this spot to rebound big in the second half, which is a mistake.
Let's say the Rams are playing the Panthers on the road and Carolina is ahead 21-3 at halftime (we'll say the Rams committed several turnovers). The Rams are a 9-point favorite and are favored in the second half by 10 points. The Panthers are the play here in the second half, especially since they are a home dog. Now, they are confident. They are at home in front of the home fans. And, they can make their season with a huge upset win over their rivals. Here are the results of this trend during three different trial periods:
1998 season -- 80 percent winners
1994-98 seasons -- 60 percent winners
1981-98 seasons -- 56.8 percent winners
HALTIME BETTING ANGLE #2
When one team is ahead at halftime by 15 or more points, bet the UNDER in the second half.
This trend is even stronger when the road team is ahead. What happens is this -- the winning team gets much more conservative on offense and rushes more than passes. This eats up clock time. The winning team can also bring in 5-6 defensive backs, since it knows the opponent will be passing more often. However, the opponent, which is losing badly and getting embarrassed sometimes will revert to fundamentals (i.e. "let's get one score first, then worry about playing catch up"). This happens often in games where the starting QB has gone down with an injury in the first half. Furthermore, if the winning team has the ball with under 5 minutes to play, they will often drive down the field and kneel at the opponent's goal line, instead of crashing in for another score. This means that anywhere from 1-5 minutes out of 30 minutes is wiped out so far as scoring chances. Finally -- in blowout games, field goals become less likely, since the losing team needs touchdowns to get back in the game. Instead of kicking a 33-yard field goal the losing team will often go for it on 4th down and goal or 4th and long. Odds are, the team usually will not convert or score. That puts the other team deep in it's own territory to start the next drive. Tick Tick Tick.
Here are the results of this trend over the two years that it was tracked by Mr. Granowski:
1998 -- 21 UNDERS vs. 13 OVERS (61.8 percent)
1997 -- 24 UNDERS vs. 10 OVERS (70.6 percent)
FIRST-HALF SCORING (TOTALS)
Let's look at some key numbers for first-half wagering, and try to determine which line openings and moves are more significant than others.
The most common number of points scored in the first-half of NFL games is 17. This is followed by 13, 20, and 24. Football is the only major sport that includes KEY numbers, because of the numerical combinations that are most likely to occur. For instance, if 17 points were scored in the first half, you can be almost certain that the halftime score is either 17-0, 14-3, or 10-7. This has some very important carry-over effects into the second-half -- which I will get into a bit later.
Here's a breakdown of the most common number of points scored in the first-half:
17 -- 9 percent of all games
13 -- 8 percent of all games
20 -- 7.9 percent of all games
24 -- 7.3 percent of all games
Judging by these figures, you should be wary of laying a half point on either side of these key numbers in the first-half. For instance, if you expect a low-scoring first-half and want to bet UNDER, 17.5 is a much stronger total to go UNDER than 16.5. That extra point means you pick up 9 percent of value. With 20 and 24, the same holds true. It is generally advisable (all other factors being equal) to bet OVER 23.5 and UNDER 24.5. The half point can play a really big role, when there is only 30-minutes of football to be played.
Most totals (for halves) fall somewhere in the 17 to 24 range. A very small number of games may have a first-half totals set at 16.5 or less (when there are two dominant defenses, or inclement weather). A few games have totals set at 24.5 and higher (usually Rams' games and teams with explosive offenses playing at home).
The actual average number of points scored in the first-half is 20.8
SECOND-HALF SCORING (TOTALS)
Here's a question: What do you think is higher scoring, the first-half or the second-half? I think most people would say the second-half. Many people think that since at least one of the teams gets desperate in the closing minutes of a game, more scoring is likely to happen. There is also the general view that it takes a series or two for the offense to get into the flow of the game and for the quarterback and receivers to establish a rhythm. Finally, there is the idea that both teams are fatigued at the end of a game, which favors offensive players who know their routes and intentions. It's very difficult for a tired defense to react.
I was surprised to learn that second-halves are slightly lower scoring than first-halves. It took me awhile to think about it, but the reasons for this now seem very clear. As I stated in "Halftime Betting Angle #2," one of the teams will not be as interested in scoring points -- as burning off clock time. If the team that's ahead has the ball in opponent's territory in the closing minutes, they will run off clock time, instead of running a wide-open offense. Also, field goals become less likely if the losing team needs touchdowns to get back to even. These factors contribute towards making the second-half slightly lower scoring than the first-half:
Average number of points scored in the first-half -- 20.8
Average number of points scored in the second-half -- 19.5
Here's a breakdown of the most common number of points scored in the second-half:
17 -- 9.6 percent of all games
21 -- 7 percent of all games
24 -- 6.6 percent of all games
14 -- 6.4 percent of all games
13 -- 6 percent of all games
Here is a powerful concept that you MUST remember if you have any interest in betting second-halves:
When compared with totals posted by oddsmakers, second-half point totals go UNDER 50.1 percent of the time based on the data. This might not seem important, but add the fact that PUSHES also occur 3.5 percent of the time. This translates to only 46.4 percent OVERS in the second-half over a 17-year period! So, this is a directional signpost that doesn't necessarily prove that betting UNDERS is profitable, but is sure does show that betting second-half OVERS is a sure way to lose money. if you are betting a second-half OVER, you better have a damn good reason!
THE AVERAGE ODDSMAKERS TOTAL:
The average second-half total posted by oddsmakers is 20.2 However, since second-halves produce only 19.5 point on average, this means there is a difference of .7 points. That fraction of a point might seem insignificant, but if you can pick up a half-point here or there off of key numbers (17, 20, 24, etc.), you clearly have value. You are not only getting .7 points in value by betting the UNDER, but you have the hook off a key number. Betting UNDER on totals of 17.5 and 20.5 would be excellent examples of this.
I am not suggesting to play UNDERS across the board. Nor am I suggesting to always bet the hard side of a key number. If a second-half total of 19.5 is posted, linesmakers are doing this for a reason. However, in a climate where OVERS seem to be the prevailing attitude, and given the shift upwards on totals over the actual point average, you should be playing more UNDERS than OVERS.
SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #3
This is closely related to the previous Angle (#2) But, it's even stronger. When the road team is leading at halftime by 16+ points, the UNDER occurs 60.5 percent in the second-half. OVERS occur only 34.9 percent of the time. It doesn't matter if the road team is favored or the dog. This happens for the reasons previously explained. But it's even stronger when the road team is winning big. A good example of this angle occurred when the Rams played at Detroit last season. The Rams were up big at halftime on the road in a Monday night game. In the second half, the Rams offense took it easy, not wanting to make things any worse of the home team. Meanwhile, the Rams defense continued to play with pride and was shooting for a shutout. They achieved the shutout win and the second half went UNDER easily.
Another angle somewhat related to the blowout theory is to consider that IF THE HOME TEAM IS WINNING BY LESS THAN 16 POINTS, the UNDER still comes in 52.6 percent of the time. This angle is not worth betting alone, but it's important to know that this means the OVER cashes only 43.4 percent of the time when the home team is leading by 16 or less points at the half. Those are horrible percentages.
SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #4
This might be the most powerful angle on the entire page. I will admit that I have not used this angle myself (since I just recently became aware of it) -- so I want to confess that I am on new territory here. Everything with this angle lines up perfectly -- the past history, the key numbers concept, and the logic. It is so powerful, in fact, that I considered keeping this private because I know other sites will cut and paste this angle and tout it as their own.
Again, I credit Mr. Granowski for running the necessary data. However, unless I am mistaken he did not highlight this eye-catching statistic from comparing the points scored in first-half to the eventual points scored in the second-half. Yes, indeed -- the type of game you see in one half is likely to be the type of game you will see in the next.
When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
(17-year results)
116 OVERS
150 UNDERS
56.3 percent UNDERS
When 13 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half
(17-year results)
132 OVERS
167 UNDERS
55.8 percent UNDERS
Interesting enough -- most of the other points scored (first-half) totals were about a 50-50 split. So, why are the games where 13 or 17 points scored in the first-half MORE LIKELY to go UNDER the total in the second-half than average?
First, oddsmakers are probably going to post a total slightly higher than 17 for the second half. If 13 points were scored in the first-half, it's unlikely to see anything less than 17 (although you will see 16 and 16.5 occasionally). This let's you capture the 17, the most common number to come up in half totals. If a game which was expected to be high scoring produces only 13 or 17 points, oddmakers may also over-react and expect an explosion to occur in the second-half. You will often see totals in the 20s when just 13 points were scored in the first-half.
If 13 or 17 points were scored, it usually means it's a CLOSE game where one misstep can cost the team the win. It means the score at halftime is probably either 7-6, 10-3, or 10-7. It’s a one possession ballgame. Under these circumstances, coaches and offensive coordinators are reluctant to take chances. They want a long sustained drives to take the lead -- or ball control to keep the lead. They value field goals and will gear the offense towards picking up 3-points -- which can be critical in a 10-7 type of game. They are not at all interested in airing out the offense and risking what is currently a very close contest. These factors contribute to UNDERS occurring in the second half.
SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #5
The converse of the argument above occurs with two possible OVER bets in the second-half, when conditions are right. Although this angle is not as strong (and not as statistically reliable, since there are far fewer trials), it still deserves being mentioned.
When 23 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
(17-year results)
74 OVERS
52 UNDERS
58.7 percent OVERS
When 30 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
(17-year results)
45 OVERS
37 UNDERS
54.8 percent OVERS
(An interesting thing was to compare results for 23 versus 24. One would think the results would be much the same. But when 24 points are scored, UNDERS prevail 116-113 -- so the kink in the 23 and 30 might be a key)
What I mean by "the kink" is that if 23 points were scored in the first-half, it usually means two touchdowns and three field goals. That's FIVE scores were made in 30 minutes. That's a lot of yardage and ball movement for one half. By contrast, the 24 may mean only 4 scoring possessions -- so while the actual points scored was HIGHER, the offenses may have racked up more yardage and are better primed for an OVER when 23 points are scored. This is my theory -- so I take what I say with a grain of sand. However, if you combine this with the fact that the number 30 also produces significantly more OVERS than UNDERS (and 30 is a close cousin to 23 -- given the scoring multiples), I'll stand on this hypothesis.
What's interesting is that NO OTHER first-half totals from 9 through 32 produced a profit for second-half OVERS -- except 26 (a rare occurrence given the number of trials but still a 30-22 edge for OVERS). Not surprisingly, 26 is semi-related to 23 as it probably means a game of many field goals. For OVER plays, 23 and 30 clearly stood out from the crowd.
SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #6
This angle is closely related to the previous two, but is more focused to try and identify a higher percentage of UNDERS and OVERS based on first-half results.
Let's take a look at games which are expected to be low scoring. By "low scoring" we'll take game totals set at 38 or less. This means that oddsmakers initially expected the game to be below average in scoring, which has ramifications for halftime betting.
Let's look again at the key number -- 17.
When 17 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game totals is 38 or lower, the game is more likely to go UNDER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
(17-year results)
52 UNDERS
22 OVERS
70.2 percent UNDERS
Note that while the 17-point first half goes UNDER 56.3 percent on all games, the percentages are even higher when we narrow this down to games with totals at 38 or less. In fact, we get a 15 percent increase (based on 74 trials, I deem these results to be statistically significant)
On all games where the game total is 38 or lower, the second-half goes UNDER 52.4 percent while the OVER cashes only 47.6 percent of the time.
SECOND-HALF BETTING ANGLE #7
Now, here's the converse angle. However, before relaying it to you, I must admit that this does not have quite enough trials to be beyond possible scrutiny. Note that games which are expected to be offensive shootouts -- based on game totals 42.5 and above tend to go OVER in the second-half when 21 points were scored in the first half.
When 21 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, and the game total is 42.5 or higher, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half. (**Caveat: the game is not a blowout, defined at one team leading the other by more than 16 points)
(17-year results)
16 UNDERS
29 OVERS
64.4 percent OVERS
I believe this happens for a good reason. First, 21 first-half points probably means a halftime score of 21-0 or 14-7. It also means touchdowns have been reasonably easy to come by. Furthermore, the losing team will be much more interested in 7 points than a field goal. It also means that if the team in the lead goes ahead by 14 points, the losing team will panic and shoot for the end zone.
The only other first-half point total which produced significant data was 23.
When 23 points (exactly) are scored in the first-half, the game is more likely to go OVER in the second-half.
(17-year results)
22 UNDERS
38 OVERS
63.3 percent OVERS
posted 10-23-02 12:21 AM
TOTAL RESULTS ALL EIGHT ANGLES COMBINED: 33-15-3
+16.5 units
I am interested to see why the guy didnt break down 2nd half totals in this way:
The first half total is on track from the completed first half to be a certain number of points over the whole game total if the scoring remains the same, so when adding the 2nd half Vegas total to the total from the completed first half and the discrepancy is x to the whole game total the following is a historical breakdown:
at x number of points over the whole game total when the 2nd half spread is x, x% over/under.
Seems like the oddsmakers use a similar strategy for 2nd half totals and fine tune by hand, and if I had a large enough 2nd half database I'm sure some interesting angles would be apparent. Same with dogs up at the half for the 2nd half. I dont have the exact #'s with me right now, but when the dog is up at the half by less than 13 points this year, playing the dog in the 2nd half has a very positive expectation, especially in the beginning of the season. Might be a stronger angle in the beginning of the seasons due to unexpectedly wrong teams favored and at the end when playoff berths have been established.
I'll shoot the guy an email and maybe he can run some angles for me if he has this database or maybe share the #'s with me, hopefully these angles arent just from a book.
+16.5 units
I am interested to see why the guy didnt break down 2nd half totals in this way:
The first half total is on track from the completed first half to be a certain number of points over the whole game total if the scoring remains the same, so when adding the 2nd half Vegas total to the total from the completed first half and the discrepancy is x to the whole game total the following is a historical breakdown:
at x number of points over the whole game total when the 2nd half spread is x, x% over/under.
Seems like the oddsmakers use a similar strategy for 2nd half totals and fine tune by hand, and if I had a large enough 2nd half database I'm sure some interesting angles would be apparent. Same with dogs up at the half for the 2nd half. I dont have the exact #'s with me right now, but when the dog is up at the half by less than 13 points this year, playing the dog in the 2nd half has a very positive expectation, especially in the beginning of the season. Might be a stronger angle in the beginning of the seasons due to unexpectedly wrong teams favored and at the end when playoff berths have been established.
I'll shoot the guy an email and maybe he can run some angles for me if he has this database or maybe share the #'s with me, hopefully these angles arent just from a book.
Ex: Vegas game total: 44
score at the half: 24-13= 37
2nd half odds: o/u 23.5
so in essence the game is on track for 74 points.
from the first half score of 37 and the 2nd half o/u of 23.5 the oddsmaker sets the new full game total at 60.5.
Maybe something like this: when the total from the first half of play added to the 2nd half o/u is more than 14.5 points above the oddsmaker's whole game o/u and the 2nd half o/u is less than 24, playing the under in the 2nd half hits x% of the time. Or maybe use what the game is on pace for vs the whole game total vs 2nd half o/u in subsets at key numbers. I just wish I had more of a 2nd half database as I'm pretty sure there is a relevant formula easily found for certain situations just like N.D.'s posted by viggme. The answer, of course, lies in finding a database for at least the last 3 years, any thoughts appreciated...
score at the half: 24-13= 37
2nd half odds: o/u 23.5
so in essence the game is on track for 74 points.
from the first half score of 37 and the 2nd half o/u of 23.5 the oddsmaker sets the new full game total at 60.5.
Maybe something like this: when the total from the first half of play added to the 2nd half o/u is more than 14.5 points above the oddsmaker's whole game o/u and the 2nd half o/u is less than 24, playing the under in the 2nd half hits x% of the time. Or maybe use what the game is on pace for vs the whole game total vs 2nd half o/u in subsets at key numbers. I just wish I had more of a 2nd half database as I'm pretty sure there is a relevant formula easily found for certain situations just like N.D.'s posted by viggme. The answer, of course, lies in finding a database for at least the last 3 years, any thoughts appreciated...
