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Thread: Can anyone suggest a capping system or disipline?

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  1. #26  
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    Big Lou, I wasnt directing anything at you personally. I was just stating that the boxscores provide a strong quantitative aspect for drafting lines, and watching the games to view playing styles, matchups, emotional factors etc provide the qualitative aspects. In the vast majority of regular season games I feel that the quantitative aspect bears more weight than the qualitative (football is a little different b/c of fewer games). In the playoffs the qualitative aspect is more significant as matchups, emotion etc come more into play. A good example is TB over OAK, the oddsmakers relied too heavily on their quantitative and had the wrong team favored, they didnt seem to take matchups very seriously. I guess my point is that in the regular season I dont watch a whole lot of NBA and MLB games- the teams may look like contenders one night and not give a rat's ass in the next b/c the seasons are so long. But in the playoffs I DO watch the games b/c every play counts much more and I typically wager a LOT more per contest, and go a lot heavier on 2nd halves esp when I see something to exploit.

    NJ over MIL was a pretty easy example of regression today.

    A lot of the time teams whose "mean" is overvalued lack a strong defense (in football, basketball). Matchups problems can also skew the mean (for a specific event) Most of the time these and other factors arent figured accurately into the line, and usually the +ML is worth a LOT more than 2 points to me. An interesting mean that I am watching is KC (and AZ).

    [This message was edited by ATX on 04-19-03 at 09:55 PM.]
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  2. #27  
    "I can't be faded", Dr. Dre mhk's Avatar
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    I agree with ATX on not changing bet size until a substantial (+ or - 20%) change in br occurs.. I'm big on betting dogs su, forget the points (see a previous thread re: football ml's). I agree with Big Lou on watching the games.. Know why things happened firsthand, it will only help you down the road, imo..
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  3. #28  
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    I always find it interesting to come back to this thread about every couple of weeks or so and see what has been added. While we as sports investors have our own ways of what works for us individualy, it is great to see how others in the sports investing arena are dealing with it.


    What may work for one person may not work at all for somebody else. But it's those little gems that we can pick-up to help us become sharper and fine tune our own personal style of investing that make it all worth while. To me, those are priceless.


    I thank each and everyone of you for your thoughts and contributions to this thread. I commend all those who have opened their soul and shared a part of their life with others so that those who are missing something might have the chance for a better life.


    Helping each other is what life is really all about. If you take that to heart, the ball will bounce your way more than not. Karma has a funny way of kicking your ass when you think you have it all figured out. Let's hope we all "Never Arrive"...if you know what I mean. Best of luck in all your investments...Stalker
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  4. #29  
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    Betting is easy, handicapping is difficult.

    You have to analyze, decide to wager or not, then review.

    If the outcome followed your reasoning...congratulations! Hopefully, it continues and you gain confidence. If it didn't, you need to review the box score/summary and see where the mistake was made.

    Is the time and effort involved in handicapping worth the effort?

    Is the investment of our time and effort and the risk of hard earned money worth the possible reward?

    I say, "yes".
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  5. #30  
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    I totally agree with the 'karmic responsibility' involved with sharing. For me personally, what goes around comes around. I am not lucky, I catch a lot more bad breaks than I get lucky bounces, I KNOW when I win a wager that should have probably gone as a loss. It seems that I've had fewer bad breaks since I've been posting though, fwiw, and I also notice that those who bash dont seem to win for long.

    Another thing that I think is important in handicapping is experience. Obviously the more experience and work you put into it the better you get, but I think that CONTINUOUS handicapping is very important. What I mean is when you are suffering through a losing streak I've seen plenty of advice to "take a few days or a week off". I dont think this helps at all. You take yourself out of the arena, you miss out on subtle nuances and team tendencies. If your BR is taking a hit, it may be a good idea to limit exposure, but if you are trying to learn and gain experience in handicapping I dont think time off is the best solution.

    If I start feeling worn out, which losing streaks can help cause, and I'm not 'seeing clearly', I may decrease wager size substantially or not actually wager at all. But I ALWAYS handicap the games for each day. I need to because I get down on a ton of games. If something comes up and I physically cant handicap, I make sure that I dont hear the outcomes of games on radio/TV before I run the data myself and come up with my own conclusions. I remember times when I took a day off and looked at the sports section the next day and thought to myself "Cleveland won SU!!, I would have been on that ML huge!!" This builds false confidence, anyone can handicap from the next day's box scores. I keep every single sports section every day, if I have to go on a long car ride I've been know to grab a couple random sports pages from the past and handicap the day's events- kind of like doing a crossword puzzle.
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  6. #31  
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    ATX you really shared some good things. I agree with you on the "long car ride crossword puzzle thing". Been there....Done that.
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  7. #32  
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    I just re-read this thread and and I see a lot of good information and advice, but I still don't see anyone mentioning my #1 bankroll killer which is GREED!!!!
    All of the disciplines, money management skills, great handicapping abilities and line-hunting expertise are great - but the big bankroll killer for me has been GREED!
    Just about every dumb trick I've pulled on myself has been due to greed: I had a bad day and I want to catch up, so I'll make this very large bet to catch up (I won't worry about if I lose!); There aren't a lot of good choices on today's card, so I'll pick a few of those borderline teams for the action (I won't worry about them losing); I've been winning lately, which means I'm infallible, so I'll pick a few extra teams - what the hell - I can't lose (and I won't worry about the possiblity of losing); etc., etc..
    Every time I look at my past mistakes, greed is sitting there making ugly faces at me. Greed is the monkey on my back that I have to be on constant guard against - because the second I ignore greed's ugly little face, it'll come back to wreck my day as sure as God makes little green apples!
    The good thing about this is that the smart handicapper can learn from his mistakes and not repeat them - or at least not repeat them very often.
    Yup! Greed is the biggest bankroll killer there is - it's created more losers by a factor of millions, than any other reason there is, so when you're making that bankroll discipline list, make sure you list GREED at the top, in caps, so you'll remember that greed will do you in faster than a room full of touts with ten billion star locks!

    Good luck!

    [This message was edited by bblight on May 26, 2003 at 11:44 AM.]
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  8. #33  
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    greed: An excessive desire to acquire or possess more than what one needs or deserves, especially with respect to material wealth.

    I hate to say this, but I think it's true...
    greed is a function of poor handicapping.

    Improve your handicapping to the point where you are able to select ONLY SOLID COVERS and you will no longer be bothered by greed.

    If you do not/cannot develop the ability to select ONLY SOLID COVERS, then you have no business being greedy and you've now compounded your problem...poor handicapping and poor money management.

    Sorry if this pissed anyone off, but that's my honest opinion.
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  9. #34  
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    Wow. I haven't read the entire thread (yet) but the last two posts, I found myself nodding.

    Just last week I was up 13.00 with my guy and because of just what you guys have said, I ended up going to the hip.

    Now I'm on a losing streak that I can't seem to break. Thanks for this thread and Im about to dive into it.
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  10. #35  
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    Ogie, if you dont have much experience in baseball you might be interested in the two rules that I set in stone for my first two years after I got my ass handed to me my first couple of months in bases. It was amazing how fast things turned around, and I still adhere to them the vast majority of the time.

    1. do not wager on ANY favorite over -140. I know that matchups differ and at times warrant the chalk, but it takes experience to recognize a 70% chance of winning. Simply put, a MLB team doesnt win 70% of its games. Convert the price into a fraction, this shows the percentage that the given team must win in THIS situation.

    2. flat bet- on any favorite lay the same amount that you would on a dog. this is another way of reducing plays on favorites since you wont make as much on faves as a dog play. flat betting also keeps you from putting large chunks of money on "locks" and keeps you from "chasing".

    Baseball, for me, is different than any other sport. In the NBA and NFL I devote most of my time in determining who will WIN the game, the cover takes care of itself the vast majority of the time. In baseball I couldnt care less who wins each game. I devote my time in bases in handicapping the PRICE. I take any game in which I assume the PRICE is off. For example, in today's HOU game I had STLOU at -150, in the NYM game I had PHI at -160. Did I think HOU and NYM would win? NO, but the price offered on the dogs (HOU,NYM) was worth the investment, and in this case paid off. If you try to determine who will win each game you usually get into trouble. Who will San Diego beat? They SHOULD lose the rest of their games this year, based on thier statistics (I think they are playing DET soon, on a side note), but they WONT, Seattle will NEVER lose etc, etc, etc. I hope this makes sense. My point is that if you play enough games where you find the price to be just 15 cents or so off what it should be, then you will profit greatly. And dont even bother with a W/L record, it's ALL about %BR gained (for any sport). Check out the numbers in my bases thread for examples of what I am talking about. Alternate Runlines are getting sharper, but they still offer the most value in a lot of situations.
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  11. #36  
    Outstanding advice ATX!

    I, too, subscribe to the flat betting - betting to win less on the favorites and betting to win more on the dogs.

    And the advice on the price in baseball is correct too. I look for a 20% ROI in pricing baseball.

    Nice job ATX!
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  12. #37  
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    Here is a professional's math formula for determining the maximum that you can risk on one game:

    A= % of wins (expressed as a decimal) --> This is your EXPECTED overall win rate.

    B = Average profit per game won

    C = Average loss per game lost

    D = Size of your bankroll today

    E = Percentage of bankroll to risk on 1 game

    For example, making a modest presumption that you can win 55% to 60% of the time, A = 0.55

    Assuming you make $10 profit for every $11 wagered when you win, B = $10

    Again, assuming you lose the amount wagered ($11) whenever your team loses, C = $11

    Say your bankroll is $500. D = $500

    Here is the math:

    E = A - [(1-A)/(B/C)] <----- This is the formula

    1-A = (1 - 0.55) = 0.45
    B/C = ($10/$11) = 0.91

    E = 0.55 - (0.45 / 0.91)
    E= 0.55 - 0.4945, or 0.05, or 5%

    If D = $500, the amount to risk = 5% x $500 = $25


    Just remember, if you can win 55% of the time, you will make money over the long run. However, a string of 6 or 7 losses from time to time is inevitable. But so are streaks of 6 or 7 winners in a row.

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  13. #38  
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    <BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> E = A - [(1-A)/(B/C)] &lt;----- This is the formula
    <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>I don't see the logic behind it but it should make for some interesting conversation.
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  14. #39  
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    similar to a formula I'm trying to develop to minimize streaks. I hate the ups and downs more than anything. It affects me psychologically, and other than money management and house limits that is the ONLY stumbling block.

    What I've realized in this pursuit: DUE FACTORS

    They are configured into lines every day, and that is why if you have more information than the oddsmaker on a specific team/teams for a given event one has a supreme edge.

    I LMFAO at some people who say due factors aren't relative. DUE FACTORS are relavant b/c if a human being doesn't produce then they are replaced. Sporting events arent cards or dice where an event is ENTIRELY INDEPENDENT. NOTHING in a sporting event is ENTIRELY independent. He who has the best DUE FACTORS gets hired by the LVSC, the pure numbers are avail to ANYONE. The 11/10 is what beats the public- in addition to the books having an almost unlimited bankroll (by comparison), and the fact that the public has no idea what the NUMBER SHOULD be. In the NBA the number is off by an avg. of 7-8 points. In MLB even so called "handicappers" dont have a clue what the number should be, they just try to pick teams that 'wont' lose.
    That formula has some merit, but the problem is that this market is so subject to change. As every day goes by, I am more compelled to adhere to my original belief- "YOU EITHER HAVE "IT" OR YOU DON'T!!"

    drunk as a skunk.
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  15. #40  
    Is that a moonbat in my sites? bblight's Avatar
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    Hmmmm!
    ATX, I kinda sorta agree; if you add in the cumulative affect of experience.
    If you haven't figured it out after you've gone through the learning curve, then ain't got it!

    Good luck!
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  16. #41  
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    ATX good point:

    "He who has the best DUE FACTORS gets hired by the LVSC, the pure numbers are avail to ANYONE. The 11/10 is what beats the public- in addition to the books having an almost unlimited bankroll (by comparison), and the fact that the public has no idea what the NUMBER SHOULD be."

    Indeed the human factor makes team sports quite different from a random dice game. The way spreads are set, you must give more points on popular favorites because there are loyal fans willing to throw $ on their team for emotional reasons.

    You gotta figure out what a fair spread should be, and take advantage when it is off by a few points. Admittedly it's easier said than done, but if this was an easy way to make $ the freeway would be full of chauffeur driven limo's.
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  17. #42  
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  18. #43  
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    wow...looking back, I totally forgot I made this thread.

    Gonna re-apply all the great advice here going into the NBA/NCAAB season. Its still early!!
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  19. #44  
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    Quote Originally Posted by tsm123 View Post
    This article was written by Ted Sevransky, aka "Buzkil" or "Teddy Covers". Ted is a well-respected handicapper and operates the paysite,

    No Url's Please

    Ted is a very good writer and this article is just one of many which can be found at his site.

    **********************************************
    Five secrets that professional handicappers know that every recreational bettor should learn



    Most casual bettors don’t make a profit from their sportsbetting hobby. This includes bettors who are relatively sharp as well as those who couldn’t pick a winner if their lives depended on it. That’s not a horrible thing either – if every bettor won, sportsbooks would be going belly up far more often than they do, and bettors would run out of places to play. And many bettors really don’t care very much about earning a long term profit. They like to have some action on games as a form of recreation or excitement, not as an investment decision. Many of these type of bettors are far more interested in TV games than anything else, and they tend to bet more on bigger games, like the Super Bowl or NCAA Tournament.



    Much of the industry jargon considers money management as important as picking winners, if not more so. And it certainly is. But throwing around buzzwords like ‘money management’ and describing esoteric concepts like ‘isolate a percentage of bankroll’ and ‘positive expectation bets’ really doesn’t help the fortunes of most recreational bettors. If you, personally, are content with betting for entertainment purposes only than this essay will serve little purpose. But if you wish to be a successful sports bettor, even as an amateur, and earn a profit from your betting over an extended period of time, here are some tips that should help you in that quest.



    1) Don’t bet into bad numbers.

    Professional handicappers recognize the value of the half point. On the average college basketball Saturday, for example, there are at least ½ dozen games that are won or lost against the spread by a point or less. If he bet on the game, the pro bettor will be on the right side of just about every one of those decisions. He’ll either getting the push when others lost, or he’ll get the win when others pushed. (I use ‘he’ because, to be honest, every professional sports bettor that I know is a man – this is a very segregated industry in that regard). The pro will take the extra time to shop around for the best number at multiple sportsbooks. He’ll have accounts that are funded in enough places to ensure that when he finds the line that he is looking for, he’ll be able to place the bet. And he’ll have an idea of which direction the line is likely to move, enabling him to bet early or late, depending on which time offers an advantageous number. The pro wins by a half point far more often than he loses by the hook. Making a modest 20 bets a week (1000 a year, a number that is on the low side for most professionals), it is not unusual to gain an extra 10 or 15 wins a year and another 10 or 15 pushes just by betting into good numbers. Assuming the bettor is betting a modest 2% of his bankroll on any given play, those 20 or 30 favorable decisions translates into a 40-60% swing in his return on his sportsbetting investment. That’s not chump change, folks, it’s hard earned profit gained one half point at a time!



    2) Make more straight bets and fewer parlays.

    Professional bettors make the vast majority of their bets as straight bets, not as parlays. For amateurs, the number is closer to 50:50, and there are many, many amateurs who rarely straight bet at all. But the straight bet is the pro’s bread and butter. Professionals are satisfied with the return on investment from a 3-2 day, or a 12-8 week. They are in it for the long haul, not always looking for the quick score that parlays provide. Amateurs are often lured by the big paydays that winning parlays provide, conveniently forgetting that a season largely consisting of steady 2-1 type days will be even more profitable than the big hits that parlays provide even in a good overall season. Straight bettors never curse the 4-1 days – when they pick more winners than losers – because they make a profit every time, while parlay bettors don’t. There’s a reason that every sportsbook in Las Vegas has their parlay cards prominently displayed – frankly, parlays pay the bills at most joints here in town. That’s not to say pro bettors never go for the longshot score, but when they do, they do it for a considerably lesser percentage of their bankroll, and they do it in conjunction with their straight bets, not in lieu of them.



    3) Concentrate more on box scores and less on final scores.

    It’s easy to look at the final score of a game and make all kinds of false assumptions. This team got killed, that team gave ‘em all they could handle. But without reading game recaps and looking at box scores, you really have no idea of what took place, and what kind of current form the teams you are examining are in. It’s key to handicap games again, after the games are over. What happened that you expected to happen, and what was a surprise? Which things are likely to repeat themselves, and which are something of an anomaly? Here’s an example. The Pistons play the Bulls at home, as nine point favorites, but win by only seven, 97-90. But looking at the box score, it’s clear that Detroit dominated for most of the game. The Pistons won the rebounding battle and forced the Bulls into turnovers. They led by double digits at halftime and after three quarters. Bu the Bulls hit some late shots in garbage time and made the final score closer than the game was. On that same night, the Raptors are nine point favorites to the Nuggets, and win by that same 97-90 margin. But the box score here indicates a whole different story. The Raptors trailed throughout this game, but got hot in the 4th quarter to steal the win. Toronto made an uncharacteristic 27-30 from the free throw line, and hit ten three pointers, while Denver shot just 4-19 in the 4th quarter. By examining the box scores you can recognize that the Pistons are in better form than the Raptors and/or the Nuggets are in better form than the Bulls, making your future wagers involving those teams more likely to be successful, even though the final scores of the two games were exactly the same.



    4) Take advantage of value.

    Linesmakers have a pretty good idea of which way the money is going to flow once they hang their opening numbers. And amateur bettors are a big part of this, falling in love with ‘public’ teams, betting them over and over again. In college sports, these ‘public’ teams are usually in the Top 25, from a major conference – well known schools. In the pro sports, they are the hottest teams, teams at the top of their respective divisions or conferences. The professional bettor will recognize this public bias, notice that the lines are inflated for many of the best teams in the country, and either bet against many of the good teams or pass on their games entirely. Instead, the pro’s concentrate much more on backing the ‘good but not great’ type of squads, teams that have fallen underneath the public’s collective radar, as well as fading some of the mediocre type squads that are in poor current form. The pros bet against Top 25 clubs far more often than they back ‘em – that’s where the value is, catching six points with an underdog that should only be getting four. It’s equally important to recognize when the linesmakers have priced you out of a play. Kentucky and Arizona have been red hot in college basketball for the last couple of months, and they are the top two teams in the whole country right now. While few bettors of any ilk like to step in front of juggernauts like these, they also recognize that the time to back these two schools has come and gone – there’s no value on their respective sides. Both clubs had great records against the spread at one point this season, but neither is above .500 vs. the number here in February.



    5) Be smart when betting your streaks.

    It’s one of the most common mistakes that amateurs make, and it’s quite possibly the most costly. They press their losses, raising the stakes to get back to even off a losing week/streak. Pro bettors know that there will be times when you lose more than you win. Hopefully, those times are few and far between, but inevitably, they will happen to everybody. Rather than raising the stakes during those times when you are having a bad run, the pro lowers his stakes, conserving bankroll while waiting for things to turn around. There’s no ‘double or nothing’ attitude on Monday Night Football games for the pro. Conversely, the pro knows that winning streaks are the time to press your bets, not the time to pull back with a conservative approach to their recent profit. When a ‘capper is in good form and good rhythm, with his read on the games in solid form and the bounces generally falling in his direction, he’s not afraid to raise his stakes a bit, making larger plays when the percentages are in his favor (positive expectation wagers) It sounds so basic – don’t chase losses, ride your winning streaks, but few amateur bettors are able to maintain an even keel during periods of higher rates than the norm of both successes and of failures

    [This message was edited by The General on 03-29-03 at 02:21 PM.]
    Quote Originally Posted by couch_potatoes View Post
    Here is a professional's math formula for determining the maximum that you can risk on one game:

    A= % of wins (expressed as a decimal) --> This is your EXPECTED overall win rate.

    B = Average profit per game won

    C = Average loss per game lost

    D = Size of your bankroll today

    E = Percentage of bankroll to risk on 1 game

    For example, making a modest presumption that you can win 55% to 60% of the time, A = 0.55

    Assuming you make $10 profit for every $11 wagered when you win, B = $10

    Again, assuming you lose the amount wagered ($11) whenever your team loses, C = $11

    Say your bankroll is $500. D = $500

    Here is the math:

    E = A - [(1-A)/(B/C)] <----- This is the formula

    1-A = (1 - 0.55) = 0.45
    B/C = ($10/$11) = 0.91

    E = 0.55 - (0.45 / 0.91)
    E= 0.55 - 0.4945, or 0.05, or 5%

    If D = $500, the amount to risk = 5% x $500 = $25


    Just remember, if you can win 55% of the time, you will make money over the long run. However, a string of 6 or 7 losses from time to time is inevitable. But so are streaks of 6 or 7 winners in a row.


    /thread
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  20. #45  
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    Just roll with *********** : The kid is 16-4 in NBA playoffs
    He post all his picks on Twitter (Type in ***********) watch for fakes (The real Dizzle has over 1,800 followers)
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  21. #46  
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    Just having an average size proportional to my bankroll works for me.

    Adjust it a bit as your bankroll fluctuates, that's what I do.
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