While my power ratings aren't set up to be used on a week to week basis as most peoples numbers are, I do suggest keeping separate numbers for home and road games. The Dolphins were a perfect example of this, going 7-1 SU & ATS at home last season but just 2-6 SU & ATS away losing their last 5 road games.
Some of the things I track include turnovers, halftime scores and missed FG's. This year I added another stat, special teams touchdowns allowed. (Something you don't want to make a habit of if you want to go to the Super Bowl).
Big Lou
Some of the things I track include turnovers, halftime scores and missed FG's. This year I added another stat, special teams touchdowns allowed. (Something you don't want to make a habit of if you want to go to the Super Bowl).
Big Lou
If your serious about setting something up for the NFL I'd suggest you start by storing box scores. Personally, I rank the NFL teams in several categories such as FDs, Yards/Rush, A/C/I, Yards/Pass, Fumbles, points, etc., both offense and defense, then I average out the ranks to get a composite rank and sort the teams by that number. You'll probably end up with a range from 8 to 24. It doesn't translate directly into points, I use it to get a feel of how much stronger one team is than another, but you can subjectively map each composite rank so that the top team goes to 0 and the last team goes to whatever you feel the max point spread should be. It would not work for college, too many teams. Code it in Excel if you want to get up quickly, I'd recommend Access if you want the versatility to expand your database.
A pretty good tool to use that I got from Gordon (I think):
List the offense and defense points from the last 4 or 5 games played.
Deduct the high and low offensive and defensive points.
Average the remainder out.
Thus: Patriots last five
30-22
24-17
7-6
15-27
20-21
scratch out the 30 and the 7 from the offense, and scratch out the 27 and the 6 from the defense, and average the remainder, which would be 24+15+20=59/3=20 for the offense, and 22+17+21 = 60/3 =20 for the defense
The patriots are 20-20
You do the same thing for the team the Patriots are play and theirs = 19-22
For the Patriots you take their offense 20 and deduct it from the other teams defense which is 22 and add 20, so the Pats have a rating of 22
For the other team you do the same, 19 - 20 + 20 = 19 as a rating for the other team.
22 - 19 = 3 which is the Pats estimated point
spread for the game.
I also like this system to review the total with.
You can also do the same with the last 4 hame and away games, although that doesn't really help until the season is half over.
I hope this was some help.
Good luck!
List the offense and defense points from the last 4 or 5 games played.
Deduct the high and low offensive and defensive points.
Average the remainder out.
Thus: Patriots last five
30-22
24-17
7-6
15-27
20-21
scratch out the 30 and the 7 from the offense, and scratch out the 27 and the 6 from the defense, and average the remainder, which would be 24+15+20=59/3=20 for the offense, and 22+17+21 = 60/3 =20 for the defense
The patriots are 20-20
You do the same thing for the team the Patriots are play and theirs = 19-22
For the Patriots you take their offense 20 and deduct it from the other teams defense which is 22 and add 20, so the Pats have a rating of 22
For the other team you do the same, 19 - 20 + 20 = 19 as a rating for the other team.
22 - 19 = 3 which is the Pats estimated point
spread for the game.
I also like this system to review the total with.
You can also do the same with the last 4 hame and away games, although that doesn't really help until the season is half over.
I hope this was some help.
Good luck!
