Bases handicapping

just wanted to post and get feedback on bases handicapping..

it seems to me alot of what is focased on is pitching.. is everythin(odds) geared around pitching? or is a majority of what books do with the odds geared around pitching?

has anyone here in the rx focased on hitting vs pitching? what success have they had?

with regression where teams are streaking or struggling ie. 9-1 or 2-8 can this apply to pitchers and hitters as well? say for instance garcia who went thru a rough patch there for awhile where his era exploded to 14 or something, would it be safe to say that he soon be heading back towards his normal era soon?

i guess its abit like shares waiting for something to bottom out and then buy

and for hitters as well.. spencer of texas hit 182 in the last 7 days well below his average would it be safe to say he be heading back towards his average soon!? and hitters that have done overly well like everett in last 7 days 615! hitting the lights out.. would he be more then likely be expected to do nothing this coming week?

also with travel for teams from one side of the coast to the other..or just travel in general is there anyone that has tracked teams and how they perform from travel off one side of the coast to play next day on the other side of the coast? does it effect teams alot?

i am interested in regression and would like to hear more about it and where people might use it.. i read in the ats thread here that to me if a team is streaking the value is gone its better to play the other side!

how often can regression to a mean be applied to wagering and handicapping? is it just an angle to look at or is something more then that

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Shiny Suit Man:

with regression where teams are streaking or struggling ie. 9-1 or 2-8 can this apply to pitchers and hitters as well? say for instance garcia who went thru a rough patch there for awhile where his era exploded to 14 or something, would it be safe to say that he soon be heading back towards his normal era soon?


i guess its abit like shares waiting for something to bottom out and then buy

and for hitters as well.. spencer of texas hit 182 in the last 7 days well below his average would it be safe to say he be heading back towards his average soon!? and hitters that have done overly well like everett in last 7 days 615! hitting the lights out.. would he be more then likely be expected to do nothing this coming week?

also with travel for teams from one side of the coast to the other..or just travel in general is there anyone that has tracked teams and how they perform from travel off one side of the coast to play next day on the other side of the coast? does it effect teams alot?

i am interested in regression and would like to hear more about it and where people might use it.. i read in the ats thread here that to me if a team is streaking the value is gone its better to play the other side!

how often can regression to a mean be applied to wagering and handicapping? is it just an angle to look at or is something more then that<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Hitters I always expect to revert to their established performance level..the same goes for overall team batting as well. I often here some comments like "The Angels are hitting .320 in their last 10 games...they have very hot bats". Well, that may be true and it may not be...you certainly can't tell from those stats. It doesn't take into account the ballparks the Angels played in the last 10 games. Or the starting pitchers they faced. Or the umpires that called the game. Or if a couple of line drives were snared by a great defensive 3rd baseman. Or if the wind was blowing out for a few games. Or if a key opposing defensive player was sitting out a game or two. If Desi Relaford is playing CF for KC in place of Beltran against a fly ball pitcher, you can be pretty certain that a few balls that would have been outs are now counted as doubles or singles. In ten games there may be 350 at bats (likely more but 350 is a round number). The difference between a .290 and .270 hitter in 350 ABs is about 5 hits. 5 hits is hardly a good way to determine a hot hitting team vs an average hitting team.

It is far more productive to have a specific consistant offensive power rating and use that number when handicapping a game. You can tweak it a bit here and there depending on whether or not a lefty is on the mound or a top run producer is out of the lineup. But don't go overboard if a hitter/team is on a hot streak. A lifetime .250 hitter batting .500 the last 10 games is still a .250 lifetime hitter. Failure to take this "regression to the mean" into account will kill your bankroll.

Pitching is a bit different. I use recent performance to tell me if a starter is healthy or not; I watch the strikeout/walk ratio, strikeout per batter ratio and HR/9 innings ratio to clue me in if the pitcher is having arm problems. But in the end, a pitcher, if healthy, will perform as well as he has in the past. At least some of the time. Remember this; the only consistent pitcher is a dead one.

Regarding travel time; a while ago I checked how a road team did in the first game of a series compared to the rest of the games in that series. There was an extremely slight advantage (maybe .5% if I recall correctly) for the home team, but likely this was due as much to chance as anything else. I didn't bother breaking it down into specifics like long flight time or anything like that; I doubt it has much bearing into which side wins a baseball game.

As for your 'regression to the mean question'; in my opinion, understanding this concept as well as decent money management will guarantee a profitable handicapping season.

thanks shotgun for your post

yea i see what u sayin bout tem going hot last 10 doesnt really mean it continues. diff factors have to be taken into account like u mentioned for sure

the reason i liked tex today cause their hitter were a little down and due bounce back, specially against a top pitcher(everyone aims up vs the best) plus chicago hitters in last 7 were on fire.. they had to come down to earth, i guess they didnt take towers seriously(only his second win in 2 years)

i think that regression to the mean with a solid money mangement skills will take a player a long way to understanding a game and making winning plays.. im still learnin more and more.. im focas on hitting lately and then looking at pitchers.. im still tryin a few things out

i will be taking into account your pitcher angles as well man thanks for your post

SSM:

I too am starting to wonder if the lines are based more on pitchers rather than hitters. I posed that question in this forum under the subject titled "Betting against public opinion to gain an advantage". There is a lot of good advice in that thread.

A bettor can gain a good advantage over the line if batting is taken more seriously since I don't believe it is taken seriously enough (IMHO).

bgo,

apsolutely! i cant agree enough.. seems books rate pitchers and a large lot of what they do focas on that.. then hitting

u have to dig this is where we the players have the advantage, books hang the line, we decide thru study which way to go.. we might not always be rite

hittling to me seems just as important, if not more important.. i like shotgun comment a consistant pitcher is a dead one! lol how tru is that.. i guess another angle to look at is how much exposure a hitter has had directly wif a certain pitcher! maybe they have had more at bats vs this particular pitcher and can handle his stuff..

its hard to come up wif such stats and time consuming but its worth a look..

sorry for posting towers as the pitcher yesterday in my previous post.. it was lewis from tex.. i had tower on the brain after his upset win over harden(who i believe was very highly talked bout in the media this week, 143? i dont think so!)

i read your thread man great posting its a very good angle u brought up.. keep up the good work!