Fair to middling: What is middling (or taking the middle)?

I thought about putting this in the Newbies Forum but I was hoping to get more than an explanation. I am hoping to get some input on the techniques of taking the middle.

My understanding of middling is betting a line on a game, having that line change significantly and then betting on that same game once the line has changed. Could someone expound upon this?

Also, what is the proper amount of line change someone should get before betting a middle? Does anyone have any techniques that they use in determining which games might have a line change and therefore be eligible for a middle?

Thanks in advance.

middling would be useful when a significant spread had changed, a good example would be yesterday for the ASU/Iowa game when it opened at 9 or 10, since everyone was one ASU you knew the line would go down by gametime. if you jumped on ASU at 9 and then got Iowa -5.5 as it was in most places you were in an absolute great place. you would want to find a book that moves the line alot or find multiple books and play 1 at each.

Chooch:

When I elaborate on a topic it helps me to remember so please allow me to indulge myself.

In your example, there are 3 possible outcomes:

-if Iowa were to win by more than 9 you would win your Iowa bet and lose your ASU bet and be relatively even.

-if Iowa were to win by 5 points or less or lose you would lose your Iowa bet but win your ASU bet and again you would be relatively even.

-if Iowa were to win by 6 points but less than 9 points you would win both bets.

In other words, you could only lose the vig in at the worst.

Does anyone have any thoughts on how much the line has to change in order to make a good middle?

in football, its not how much the line moves.....the key is if the move crosses key numbers ie. 3, 7, 10 ect...

laying 6' and taking 7' is only 1point but since 7 is a key number that is crucial....same goes with totals..


middling in football in the long run is probably a losing proposition in the long run, but can be useful in hedging bets...imo

let me add that bookmakers can be successful if they lay off action on bad numbers and book action on good numbers

ie the dallas/gmen game

x-amount of money booked on dallas +7........lay off at 7' or better
x-amount of money booked on gmen -7'.........lay off at 7 or better

when laying off one sided action keep action booked at bad #'s
lay-off action at good numbers...reverse of the player taking numbers

you are better off waiting for basketball season. there are some numbers that are sharper than others for football, but I cant really put this topic into words, it comes to some people with experience I think. some key numbers with low totals (good defense) are worth a shot, but look over the past few weeks' line moves to see how you would have done in football.

Injury games seem to offer good middle opps.

I dont have the numbers but it would seem that -2.5, +3.5 with a total of 37 or less would be worth a shot.

also...

this is a little bit different but if you can find a -2.5 +100 and a +3 +100 (or better than +100's) that is worth a BIG shot.

or +3 +110 / -3 +110

these are not as common anymore but I've hit a couple.

I dont middle that much, but in basketball I sometimes do a weighted middle if the line moves enough when I take a lead.

NFL 2nd halves can be middled, I'm not talking full game and then 2nd half, but an over 16.5/ under 17.5, but there is usually vig to deal with.

I think one has to middle often and alot to be successfull. Just taking a shot here and there is not the way to go IMO.

dimeplayers:

Your insight and explanations tell me that you know what you are talking about. For example, mentioning taking the middle if it crosses key points makes sense to me.

One question if I may, what does the quote mark mean next to a number? For example: 7'

Thanks to all who have responded.

7'= 7 1/2

Big game I used to do some middling but have pretty much quite. Keys to middling are one you need a chart. In each sport you need to know the % of times a # hits.Example La Tech was 10.5 at everybook but Pinnacle who had it at 9.5. If you bet Fresno -9.5 at pinnacle and La tech at +10.5 you would have it the middle. The big question you need to look at is when a game is lined at 9.5, 10, 10.5 how often does it hit on 10? If it is less then 5%(I think) it is a bad bet over time. the % maybe a little better because of reduced juice by some books.

If you are speaking of betting a side and then betting it back later, like in the ASU/ Iowa example there are two things I don't like about it, One you add risk because you don't know for sure the line will move in the right directions, and second you are wasting a good # by buying it back. justmyopinion

[This message was edited by jwunderdog on September 22, 2003 at 02:12 PM.]

DOes anyone have a data base that has the middling figures?

% of times a team is favored by 2.5,3, or 3.5 actually wins by 3. both in college and Pro football

same thing for 7, 10 and 14.

there are very few games worth middling in football. many have gone broke trying. wait for basketball season.

i have not middle very much in the past, and bassketball seems stronger for it than does football, but look at the neb/s miss game on thurs it opened at 8' and is now 11. the magic number is 10 and with a possiblity of a low scoring game it has a chance.

generally, the lower the total the better chance you have for a middle if you catch a key number (or not).

one of the problems with football is the different versions of scoring. 1pt, 2pts (possible), 3pts, 6pts. the variance in scoring differential is fairly wide in the NFL (most common # is 3 of course) but no exact differential comes in at an alarming rate. I would imagine in NCAA football the scoring differential is even more diverse since the totals can be a lot higher. Add in the fact that PAT misses and FG misses and 2pt conversion attempts are more common in the NCAA and those key numbers are less likely than the NFL.

I'm no expert on middling. I have been somewhat successful at it in baskets. The key to middling is knowing which numbers (spreads) are 'real' and when the books are just throwing something out there to get an opinion knowing full-well that the public will take it even though it is off. For example, in basketball if a public team say the Lakers on the road should be -2 point favorites, but the books know from historical data that the public will take them at -3.5 to -4.5 and the sharps will take the home dog....

it gets complicated to explain. if you see the line move from that -4.5 down to -3 and the public is all over the Lakers, you can see a little of what is going on. A lot of times the books will move on sharp action b/c it will keep coming in if they dont move it. The public often takes any number that is offered, they are betting on a team. So if you keep it at -4.5 you get a lot of sharp action which may OUTWEIGH public action, by moving it down to another number they decrease the sharp money and increase the public money on the wrong side.

this is a pretty bad example and sometimes the books move the numbers just to give the impression that sharp action is coming in. It throws off the steam chasers. sometimes they move the numbers b/c they arent getting any action at the current # and by moving it they generate more opinion. How to tell which is which is which??? I have a little bit of an idea, but I need an example to illustrate. For me it's a sort of instinct developed with experience. I'm wrong plenty of times, but when you see enough scenarios you can filter out some of the chaff and start developing angles which turn into systems of which the top subsets churn out over 55% winners year in and year out because they are based on VALUE, not trends, but on misconceptions that the oddsmakers forecast that the public will have in advance, because they have so many thousands of games of data to base this on. And a formula has been developed from this. Are THEY wrong? Did TB destroy ATL last week?

But the formula works OVER TIME. They get it in the end. You will see the lines tighten at the end of each sporting season. Two reasons: one, they have a better feel for a team's performance and can determine a median with more accuracy. two, the public taps out. sure they reload every now and then and some years are better than others for joe public, but when the public isnt putting as much money on the games, you can count on those lines being a lot tighter, it never fails b/c you are now wagering against sharp money, not the guys that dont even line shop and will take a -4 when the spread should -1.5, but the people who have a good idea of what the line should be and will hit any weak number that appears on a paying screen. That is just some thoughts, but it can help set up some middle opps as the line is hammered down to it's true number. If you catch the opener sensing that it is off, and it moves enough for you to assume there are enough numbers in between for it to land at the required percentage taking into account the vig you must lay, then you may do all right. But you need to have a good idea of what the number is. A lot of openers are meant to move, they set them at -14.5 knowing they will go down to -13 or -13.5, whatever. And many times the true number is not the key number in between, it could be -12. One thing that I sometimes do is catch an opening number with a little bit more on it, knowing it will move a certain way. Was -2.5 for instance, now when it hits 3 I can hedge if need be or if it goes across 3 I can decide if I want lay a little off hoping the final score lands exactly on 3. I'm out of breath and this probably doesnt make a whole lot of sense but that is some of what crosses my mind when I look at middle for basketball. One thing I have noticed is that injury games seem to land VERY close to the number for some reason. The first BIG middle I hit was when T-MAC was announced out vs NYK and the line moved 2.5 to 3.5 points in 10 minutes.

for football, if you have a total of 37 or lower and you catch a -2.5 and then it moves to -3.5 I would imagine your chances of that game landing on exactly 3 are a bit higher than middling a typical game. Problem is that the books know this too.

It seems to me that a person would need lots of experience to know what the line should be so that he could watch for a good value. It's also tough to know why a line moves. ATX, you mentioned sometimes it is to trap the public, other times it is to deter the sharps. This too would take lots of experience to know which is happening when a line moves.

it does and is difficult to explain, and I'm no expert. But IMO on a lot of events there are 'right sides' and 'wrong sides'. On some events they simply book action. 'Right sides' dont always win of course, but by betting into the 'wrong sides' you are taking a losing subset, and if you can try to eliminate that you will be much better off long term. Check out some of the guys in the RR on Saturdays and Sundays. Dime, Dicky, Judge, and a lot of other people will give you winners over time b/c they have the right side.

If you spend enough time watching line moves and then critiquing the corresponding results, you may start to notice patterns. The human mind can be trained to notice correlations and an instinct is developed. The hard part is charting instinct. A lot of times I wager on a team b/c of instinct, but if I try quantify the reasoning behind it I may become confused and second guess myself. This is why everyone strives to find those blind systems that work year after year, it takes the decision making process out (which may or may not reduce risk). I know people that dont even handicap at all, they look at things from a completely different standpoint, and they think I'm crazy for even watching the games.

I promise to email you this week with something that may explain things a little better.