Football teaser analysis

mt · Sep 17, 2003

Does anyone know of a football teaser study/analysis? I am working on some software to crunch these numbers, but wanted to make sure I wasn't doing work already done.

Any articles, references or software pointers would be appreciated.

Also - from a discussion standpoint: do you think there is any value in this? In my short time here, I have seen teasers bashed as sucker bets. Without seeing the numbers though, I'm inclined to think there could be some hidden value here. Thoughts? Also would consider expanding this to parlays...

Gridster · Sep 17, 2003

I don't focus specifically on teasers but I do a lot of spread analysis and I know that, on average, the line makers miss the actual game spread by 10 points, even a little more on totals. That alone keeps me off of teasers. Another thing that you have to remember is that you don't hit a teaser unless you use the additional points to cover at least one of the bets. Otherwise, you simply paid an exorbitant price to hit a parlay.

dimeplayersonly · Sep 19, 2003

mt.............some "sharper" players say they use teasers in certain situations in the nfl (article on the rx homepage)....

and

assuming you play at a teaser friendly book....ties win, no juice ect...

i guess playing them in the nfl (certain situations) could work.....but in general NO......

normally the lines for the Nfl are sharper than college foots, so the 6pts could make a difference sometimes i guess......

the problem with teasers is that you still have to win TWO bets in order to win the teaser...

to answer your question is there any value in betting them?

in over 10yrs in the business i have never seen a person who was successful betting teasers in the long run.......

FairWarning · Sep 20, 2003

I have had the most luck taking home dogs getting 7+ points and betting overs on the lowest total (not involving TB).

mt · Sep 21, 2003

Thanks guys. I have already generated some preliminary numbers which point me in a few directions. I'll be applying these on a few plays in the coming weeks and will let everyone know how it went. The only place I've seen this addressed was Wong's book SSB, and if memory serves me correct, it was rather cursory.

Thanks and good luck to all.

corey · Sep 22, 2003

You can't win with teasers period. Gridster hit the mark.

mt · Sep 22, 2003

Nanuk

Not sure that is the case. My initial research leads me to believe that under certain circumstances, teasers can be a powerful play. Since I began looking into this, confirmed that Stanford Wong has published numbers on this.

If you put them together willy nilly, sure - it's a lost cause. Hope to get more conrete stats on this in the future.

dimeplayersonly · Sep 22, 2003

MT............i can tell by your posts that your a smart guy, its good to research and crunch the numbers.......

over the years i have booked players that have bet teasers in every situation from nfl playoffs to steam plays........and at the end of the season, the end result is the same......they lose

not saying you cant be successfull in the short term........
but long term no....

ie..last season i remember several sunday nite and mnf football games when all teasers hit.......teaser players thought they had found the secret to winning...........but nothing last forever and eventually the +'s went to -'s.....

like i said above, teasers might be usefull to hedge a bet...........but alone...........nope

corey · Sep 22, 2003

What I can tell you, having seen the average teaser player, is that it is a loser.

Perhaps if you are an <<<exceptional>>> handicapper there might be a place for them but if it is something you are looking to do on a regular weekly basis - forget it.

ATX · Sep 23, 2003

first off, I dont play teasers.

secondly some do win, or have won over time.

I believe this is the one that wins:

6pt 2team MUST BE +100

home teams -2.5 or -3 (find 2)

I havent checked this in a couple of years, but I think that is the exact one that wins.

ATX · Sep 23, 2003

might be -2.5 and -2, not 100% sure.

I think Ben Dover may be someone to talk to.

I hear he is at SSB.

ATX · Sep 23, 2003

dime is right.

stay away from teasers, they are offered for a reason.

the one I mentioned above had shown an advantage over time for the obvious reason.

jimmyk+ · Sep 23, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by ATX:
first off, I dont play teasers.

secondly some do win, or have won over time.

I believe this is the one that wins:

6pt 2team MUST BE +100

home teams -2.5 or -3 (find 2)

I havent checked this in a couple of years, but I think that is the exact one that wins.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> maybe a stup[id quest but what do you mean by MUST BE +100 ?

ATX · Sep 23, 2003

Jimmy,

not a dumb question at all.

You must use a shop that offers 6point 2 team teasers at even money (or +100) NOT -110.

This is totally off the top of my head but I believe the teasers I mentioned above won about 54% of the time, and there are not a whole lot of situations to use them so at -110 it's just not really very profitable. There are some shops that offer 2T6P at +100, at least that is what they say in the their mail-outs.

BTW, MVP Sportsbook, you have sent me at least 10 mail-outs in the last 3 weeks, enough is enough, save some trees.

jimmyk+ · Sep 23, 2003

tx, thought that was what u meant ...........hv been foolin w/ 2 teamers at pinny (11/10).......hv always viewed them as sucker plays but have found some value in early NFL action this year.......whether this is a reflection of "softer" early season lines or just an aberrant run of favs remains to be seen.........i figure any bet that MOST books in vegas wont take anymore must hv some value in it given the right #'s.......(eg. WASH +4/INDY+4) this week ...........5-2 w/ these plays this season...........regreesion to the mean inevitable ???

jimmyk+ · Sep 23, 2003

it would seem that the sharper the number (and lets face it, the NFL numbers are second only to the NBA when it comes to tuff to beat lines) then the more value there is to be found grabbing 6 points either way ......i am fairly neww to this so i dont have a large enuff sample of games where the teaser points actually came into play , but it would seem logical to assume that there shld be at least 2 games each week where 6 points would be valuable ...........and home team + points would def be THE most prevalent (teasing 2 point home favs to +4 the best ex.)

mt · Sep 23, 2003

jimmyk

good points and my thoughts exactly.

1) i have seen posters mention the fact that some vegas books no longer take teasers. that jumps out at me.

2) there are definitely certain situations where they can be advantageous if applied correctly.

NASDAQ · Sep 23, 2003

My take on teasers is simple. You should not be betting on sports unless you know how to pick ATS without points.

Team A +4
Team B -4

Look at the matchup, decide your line, and make a pick. If you think Team B can win by maybe 3, you may be tempted to tease them. So you tease them to +2, have to make another pick that will also win, and you are probably getting jacked on the odds at the same time. My philosophy says, if you are very confident with your strategy, and have Team B winning by 3, then take Team A +4.

If you are not confident with your strategy, then just pass on a game where you feel it's too close to call OR better yet, do your research and refine your strategy into something that works.

I know a guy who made paper bets (no money) for 2+ years before dropping a cent on a game and he is a pretty successful capper.

ATX · Sep 23, 2003

NASDAQ,

I think I might know who that person is

The reason teasers are not successful is because the lines in the NBA and NFL are NOT sharp enough for them to work.

Think about this.

And look at scores.

Realize that I am saying this in a comparative sense. You are much better off wagering ATS, teasers won't help your return over time. If you win on a two team teaser, how many times would you be better off wagering on each team SU? Sure, there are exceptions, but the situation I stated above is the only profitable blind system I have found. The spreads dont matter 84% of the time, just pick the winner.

jimmyk+ · Sep 23, 2003

tx for the info ATX.....knew that s/u winning % was a big number but no idea it was 84%

would nvr consider teaser plays as anything more than a spot/hedge play........hitting str8 plays over last 3 seasons 99-86-9...........looking to grind out small % on occasional 2-teamers as a way to gain a small edge vs "bad" early numbers