NFL Monday Night Football
INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 1)
Line: Tampa Bay –4, O/U: 37.5
StatFox Super Situations favoring Indy:
Play On - Road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in the first half of the season. (84-45 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.1%, +34.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The StatFox Power Rating estimates that Tampa Bay has a 13 point edge in this game.
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring INDY to cover the spread:
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 23.9, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 1*)
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring TAMPA BAY to cover the spread:
TAMPA BAY is 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. The average score was TAMPA BAY 18.9, OPPONENT 21.2 - (Rating = 2*)
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring INDIANAPOLIS to cover the spread:
TAMPA BAY is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992. The average score was TAMPA BAY 16.4, OPPONENT 22.1 - (Rating = 0*)
Key Stats:
PYA (Pass Yards Per Attempt) differential: Indy 7.3-5.4, Tampa 6.3-3.5. Indy is allowing 4.8 yards per rush, one of the highest totals in the NFL.
Major League Baseball for Monday October 6th, 8:05 PM ET
BOSTON (97 - 69) at OAKLAND (98 - 68), AL Division Series game 5.
PEDRO MARTINEZ (R) vs. BARRY ZITO (L)
Line: Boston –155 Total: 7 UN
StatFox Super Situations favoring BOSTON against the money line:
Play Against - Any team (OAKLAND) - after a game where their bullpen blew a save, in October games. (37-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.5%, +20.6 units. Rating = 2*)
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring BOSTON to win against the money line:
MARTINEZ is 35-8 (+18.8 Units) against the money line against AL West opponents since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was MARTINEZ 5.5, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND is 2-5 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season. The average score was OAKLAND 4.1, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 0*)
OAKLAND is 0-7 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in a playoff game trying to close out a series over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 2.3, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Zito goes on three days rest after winning game 2 on Thursday. Martinez got a no decision in Oakland’s 4-3 win in Game 1.
College Football for Saturday 10/11/03
OKLAHOMA (5 - 0) vs. TEXAS (4 - 1)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/11/2003 3:30 PM , Dallas, TX
Line: Oklahoma -6.5
The last three games Texas was an underdog, dating back to ’99, the Longhorns won straight up and ATS. The underdog in this series is on a 12-3 ATS run.
MIAMI (5 - 0) at FLORIDA ST (5 - 0)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/11/2003 12:00 PM
Line: FLORIDA ST -4.5 -6
The Situational Analysis seems to be all over Florida St, and I don’t like the fact that Miami seems to have been overlooking its past few opponents to get to this meeting. I think they’ll have trouble moving the ball on the Seminoles.
StatFox Super Situations favoring FLORIDA ST to cover the spread
Play On - Home favorites (FLORIDA ST) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games. (27-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 4*)
Play On - Home favorites (FLORIDA ST) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games. (34-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.3%, +19.7 units. Rating = 3*)
FLORIDA ST is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was FLORIDA ST 41.5, OPPONENT 8.9 - (Rating = 3*)
AUBURN (3 - 2) at ARKANSAS (4 - 0)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/11/2003 2:00 PM
Line: ARKANSAS -5.5
The StatFox Power Ratings and Game Estimator both indicate that Auburn should be favored in this game by about three points. Auburn has turned it on the last three weeks after starting 0-2. The Tigers vaunted running game has averaged 256 yards per game over the last three, and defensively for the season, they are yielding just 2.4 yards per rush. This should help them combat Arkansas’ main strength, its running game.
Good luck from StatFox!
INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 1)
Line: Tampa Bay –4, O/U: 37.5
StatFox Super Situations favoring Indy:
Play On - Road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, in the first half of the season. (84-45 over the last 5 seasons.) (65.1%, +34.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The StatFox Power Rating estimates that Tampa Bay has a 13 point edge in this game.
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring INDY to cover the spread:
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 23.9, OPPONENT 20.3 - (Rating = 1*)
StatFox Matchup Power Trends against similar type opponents favoring TAMPA BAY to cover the spread:
TAMPA BAY is 26-9 ATS (+16.1 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. The average score was TAMPA BAY 18.9, OPPONENT 21.2 - (Rating = 2*)
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring INDIANAPOLIS to cover the spread:
TAMPA BAY is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after a bye week since 1992. The average score was TAMPA BAY 16.4, OPPONENT 22.1 - (Rating = 0*)
Key Stats:
PYA (Pass Yards Per Attempt) differential: Indy 7.3-5.4, Tampa 6.3-3.5. Indy is allowing 4.8 yards per rush, one of the highest totals in the NFL.
Major League Baseball for Monday October 6th, 8:05 PM ET
BOSTON (97 - 69) at OAKLAND (98 - 68), AL Division Series game 5.
PEDRO MARTINEZ (R) vs. BARRY ZITO (L)
Line: Boston –155 Total: 7 UN
StatFox Super Situations favoring BOSTON against the money line:
Play Against - Any team (OAKLAND) - after a game where their bullpen blew a save, in October games. (37-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.5%, +20.6 units. Rating = 2*)
StatFox Situational Power Trends favoring BOSTON to win against the money line:
MARTINEZ is 35-8 (+18.8 Units) against the money line against AL West opponents since 1997. (Team's Record) The average score was MARTINEZ 5.5, OPPONENT 2.3 - (Rating = 1*)
OAKLAND is 2-5 (-9.6 Units) against the money line in home games after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season. The average score was OAKLAND 4.1, OPPONENT 6.0 - (Rating = 0*)
OAKLAND is 0-7 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in a playoff game trying to close out a series over the last 3 seasons. The average score was OAKLAND 2.3, OPPONENT 5.6 - (Rating = 1*)
Zito goes on three days rest after winning game 2 on Thursday. Martinez got a no decision in Oakland’s 4-3 win in Game 1.
College Football for Saturday 10/11/03
OKLAHOMA (5 - 0) vs. TEXAS (4 - 1)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/11/2003 3:30 PM , Dallas, TX
Line: Oklahoma -6.5
The last three games Texas was an underdog, dating back to ’99, the Longhorns won straight up and ATS. The underdog in this series is on a 12-3 ATS run.
MIAMI (5 - 0) at FLORIDA ST (5 - 0)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/11/2003 12:00 PM
Line: FLORIDA ST -4.5 -6
The Situational Analysis seems to be all over Florida St, and I don’t like the fact that Miami seems to have been overlooking its past few opponents to get to this meeting. I think they’ll have trouble moving the ball on the Seminoles.
StatFox Super Situations favoring FLORIDA ST to cover the spread
Play On - Home favorites (FLORIDA ST) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 16+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games. (27-6 over the last 10 seasons.) (81.8%, +20.4 units. Rating = 4*)
Play On - Home favorites (FLORIDA ST) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after allowing 9 points or less in 2 straight games. (34-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (72.3%, +19.7 units. Rating = 3*)
FLORIDA ST is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) in home games after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was FLORIDA ST 41.5, OPPONENT 8.9 - (Rating = 3*)
AUBURN (3 - 2) at ARKANSAS (4 - 0)
Week 7 Saturday, 10/11/2003 2:00 PM
Line: ARKANSAS -5.5
The StatFox Power Ratings and Game Estimator both indicate that Auburn should be favored in this game by about three points. Auburn has turned it on the last three weeks after starting 0-2. The Tigers vaunted running game has averaged 256 yards per game over the last three, and defensively for the season, they are yielding just 2.4 yards per rush. This should help them combat Arkansas’ main strength, its running game.
Good luck from StatFox!
