How do you convert Hockey Odds from Europe to US?

BenDover · Nov 7, 2002

What does all this mean?

Chicago - Atlanta 52 - 20 - 28
1X2 odds (w/o OT): 1.91 - 5.03 - 3.60
Moneyline odds: 1.54 - 2.86
Handicap odds: -½: 1.75 - 2.34 -1½: 2.63 - 1.61
Over/Under odds: 5 : 1.68 - 2.48
5½: 2.07 - 1.93 6 : 2.53 - 1.65

I understand this...how are you getting from the above to the below?

North America
Chicago -1.5+25, 6u30, -270/+230

MariaSharapova · Nov 8, 2002

Not sure what your looking for>
Here'a handy gadget for converting euro decimal
to americanese odds
www.bookiebusters.com/toolbox/convertor.html

Mathemagician · Nov 8, 2002

The format looks familiar. /infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif So, maybe I can help you with this one.

The first line "Chicago - Atlanta 52 - 20 - 28" gives simply the probaility percentages for home win, draw and away win (without including the overtime). In europe we actually bet on the 60-minute results and ignore the overtime. Can you believe that?!? And we also write the home team first, which is just the opposite way than yours.

And then the next lines are odds for different types of bets. You can convert the odds to American format like this:

x = European odds (for example 1.75 where the dot is the decimal separator)

if x is greater or equal to 2.00, then y = 100*(x-1)

if x is smaller than 2.00, then y = -100/(x-1)

And the y gives the American odds.

As an example, european 1.75 means -133 (since -100/(1.75-1) = -133). And european 2.4 means +140 (since 100*(2.4-1) = 140).

The line "1X2 odds (w/o OT): 1.91 - 5.03 - 3.60" is useless for you Americans, because these are the odds for that kind of betting where overtime is ignored.

"Moneyline odds: 1.54 - 2.86" is moneyline odds. Using the methods I just described, you can convert these to american format. In this case it would be:
ATL PK+186
CHI PK-185

These odds are without house edge. And the little difference (186 vs. 185) is because of rounding errors, nothing more.

Note, that these are the american moneylines, where the final result (including overtime) counts. So you can compare these to Vegas odds. (It's just the three way betting where in europe we ignore overtimes.)

"Handicap odds: -½: 1.75 - 2.34 -1½: 2.63 - 1.61
" gives two sets of handicap odds:
ATL +½ +134
CHI -½ -133

and

ATL +1½ -164
CHI -1½ +163

There are two sets because these odds are posted before the bookmakers posts their lines. So the bookmakers might have different spreads for these teams. You can just take the right spread and compare those odds.

"Over/Under odds: 5 : 1.68 - 2.48
5½: 2.07 - 1.93 6 : 2.53 - 1.65" gives two sets of O/U-odds:

5½o+107
5½u-108

and

6o+153
6u-154

Here again you should check if your bookmaker's line is 5½ or 6 goals and then compare the corresponding odds.

Hope this helps,

Mathemagician

PS. You can see my NHL-odds on finnish forum at: http://user.sgic.fi/~jal/pelit/pelit3.html#70
And I post NHL-picks at: http://www.wagerline.com/comp/leaders.asp?Name=NHL0203 where you can also see my record.

illbgamblin · Nov 8, 2002

put simply..

$1.75 to u.s format is, 1 divided by .75 just take out the 1. anything above $2.00 say $2.10 is +110, $3.20 is +220. too easy

mathemagician... not everyone understands a 500 word detailed synopsis.

oops scalped yourself there mathman... chi +34 v atl -33 /infopop/emoticons/icon_razz.gif

welcome

BenDover · Nov 8, 2002

What is the minimum edge you look for in sides and totals? American conversion...

jurdo · Nov 8, 2002

Moneyline odds: 1.54 - 2.86

us odds for the same game:
-270/+230

with the moneyline odds the euro books may pay "1/2 face value" if the game is tied after OT

Mathemagician · Nov 9, 2002

On sides I look for the edge of at least 10 cents (with even odds) before making any bets.

And on totals my success hasn't been quite as good as in sides, so the edge has to be bigger. 20-cent difference with even odds might be enough.

Mathemagician

mdrams · Nov 9, 2002

I notice a lot of your games have 2nd game in 2 nights for the visiting team. Is this a good trend to follow in picking the home side? Also what other trends do you look at? for eg. 3rd game in 4 nights, and 4th game in 6 nights. Are there other worthwhile trends to consider?

Guest · Nov 10, 2002

Very interesting mathemagician, you obviously have a nice sophisticated model there to be doing so well.

Are past team head to head records a factor for you at all?

Some people seem to like looking at these.

illbgamblin · Nov 10, 2002

i respect the sides though. what books do you use?

oh yeah... you're a fast learner..

Motivation Factor

"To put it as simply as I can, the team is more motivated, if they need the points and if they especially can't let their opponent to have the points." /infopop/emoticons/icon_eek.gif

Guest · Nov 11, 2002

Does 'line closing against you' mean that you are not winning?

Nope.

Mathemagician · Nov 11, 2002

Head-to-head records are much more difficult because you can hardly ever get any statistical reliability for it. You would have to use results from many years and in that time the teams can change so much that the old information becomes pretty useless.

I certainly did put my motivational factor explanation much too simple. It didn't say anything. Sorry. Let's try again:

Besides that some teams fight for play off spots while some teams have already secured or lost the chance to make it to the playoffs (not yet but later during the season), there are also factors involving different conferences, so it's not as bad to lose the points to a opponent from another conference for example. All this makes chances for the motivations from game to game.

I don't like telling which bookmakers I use, because the more you bet on the same bookmakers, the worse lines we all get. (The offshore bookers adjust their lines pretty rapidly when you start betting the maximums.) But the way I choose my bookers is to check their status at sportsbookreview.com and make sure they are recommended.

Mathemagician · Nov 11, 2002

Back-to-back (2 games in 2 nights) is a factor I always check for every game before making any bets.

But that's of course only the simplest case of fatigue. Player's do get tired when they have to play any amount of games in too short time period. Just try to see when the team has a busier schedule than they usually have.

Revenge factor is also easy one to keep record of (especially immediate revenges).

Other factors I use (motivation for example) are more complicated, so I don't think I could explain in a way that anyone could get much out of it. To put it as simply as I can, the team is more motivated, if they need the points and if they especially can't let their opponent to have the points.

Guest · Nov 11, 2002

Right, thanks, that is what I would have thought.

illbgamblin · Nov 11, 2002

if you are a going to be a winning player in the long run or not. if a line moves against you, you have a less % chance of winning that bet + juice. maybe im wrong and a bookie moves it just for something to do because they're bored or they personally like the other side. the type of money that moves a line AV is 9/10 pretty sharp and if you are up against it enough you will lose. right?

mathemagician: do you post your %'s before 10am NY time for that days games? i ask because i notice from day to day that there is alot of movement on the overnight NHL lines which im assuming is from scandanavian action. i know they're ultra keen on their hockey or do you bet your stuff on the o/nights limits then post, keen to know because i'm making about 4-5% by following books that get that action early and betting against the ones that haven't got it yet. it works because don best line service doesn't update till 8am LA time or something so its been really good. hope this makes sense /infopop/emoticons/icon_confused.gif

Mathemagician · Nov 11, 2002

I usually post my analysis more than 24 hours before the games will be played.

This means that from time to time I might miss some piece of new information (for example a new unjury). But I also get to bet against the overnight lines that hasn't been moved by wiseguys yet. (Some offshore bookers post their lines even before the previous round has been played, but the limits might be a little low then.)

So the answer to the question is, that I do post my % before I make my bets (and before offshore bookers have posted their lines). But there is a several hour window before all of the offshores start moving their lines. (Individual offshores usually move their lines immediately when somebody makes maximum bets.)

The lines move pretty quickly in the morning hours when people start getting up (in scandinavia), so I also believe it's the scandinavian action that moves the lines most.

illbgamblin · Nov 11, 2002

and i came across some books moving really strong from the opening line they post, i figured it can't be u.s $
hockey for u.s bookmakers is the smallest % winner, guys like yourself can really exploit the inefficiency of the lines and some people get a free ride by finding out who the early money is going down on and get down some aswell. those sides don't get bet back often either. the early total action is a different story all together, not too sharp there, closes against more than not and the results haven't been good enough to win overall.

/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

TheActuary · Nov 18, 2002

Easier to just memorize all the numbers <2.00, and just subtract 1 from all the numbers>/= 2.00.

eejit99 · Nov 19, 2002

Do you consider a teams current powerplay perfomance signifigant, either for picking sides or totals? I've been tracking it for the last couple of years but haven't really noticed anything of value.

Mathemagician · Nov 20, 2002

Power-Play and Penalty Killing are significant parts of the game. Especially this year when the number of penalties is higher than in previous years.

In my preseason analysis I adjusted my power ratings according to the power-play and penalty killing abilities of the teams. But after that I don't really separate power plays from the team's power rating anymore.

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