How do they set the lines with such accuracy?

ShedClub · Feb 11, 2004

I wonder how or with what formula/ equation the line setters use to determine the lines. It seems that 80% of the time the scores/outcomes of the games are very very close to the lines. How do they predict with such accuracy??

boltgirl · Feb 11, 2004

power ratings and rpi numbers which vary but the ncaa has one place it goes to get thier rpi ratings and those numbers differ in the line by a few pts. the oddmakers arent dumb they see the same numbers so if you saw acurrate power ratings theyd be right where the lines are.RG

drunkguy · Feb 15, 2004

keep track of the lines and the actual point differential in the game...

you'll find that the lines are further off than you think

MrTanaka · Feb 16, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by drunkguy:
keep track of the lines and the actual point differential in the game...

you'll find that the lines are further off than you think<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I totally agree. You just tend to notice and remember the close ones more often.

GLJJNOVA · Feb 16, 2004

I agree with the others here. I don't know where you got 80% from, but that is way off. Most books try to put out the best # to limit risk. I prefer capping the game than the line in most cases.

Best Wishes
GP

jwunderdog · Feb 23, 2004

If it was anywhere near 80% teasers would be a gold mine instead of a death trap.

superstar · Feb 23, 2004

a line its good not because the outcome of the game its closer to the difference but because it split opinions making people betting on both sides

jdodger · Feb 24, 2004

An original opening line is a remarkably good predictor of actual outcome.

The line as actually moved by real $$ being bet is even better.

One of the best winning strategies is finding a book that is off the line as moved by action.