It's a great time to look at some of the trends or patterns that have been formed in recent NCAA tournament action. Among the things to analyze include; favorite/underdog results, how the various seeding affects ATS performance, how each conference fares, and even how line & total placement can be important. Of course, the indicated results are generalities from the past six years of NCAA tournament action and in reality, how the teams match up is always the most critical factor. With that said, we’ve always subscribed to the theory that when it comes to sports handicapping information, the more you know, the better you are.
OVERALL TOURNAMENT RECORDS (since 1998)
It’s no secret that seeding is critical and that the regular season means everything when it comes to earning a higher seed in the tournament. The results show that 261 of the 382 games in the NCAA’s since ’98 have been won by the higher seed, 68.3%. Granted, this stat means more to the office pool participant than it does to the ATS bettor, who’s more interested in the fact that the higher seed has compiled just a 171-201-8 ATS record in that span, for 46.0%. Certainly makes the case for more money line wagering, doesn’t it? It also serves note that the hype surrounding the “Cinderella” teams (Kent St, Gonzaga, etc) that advance through the tournament only tells half of the story. You’ll see later that the seeds with the highest ATS marks in the last five years are actually all 8th or below! Before going any further though, quickly... can anyone recall the biggest straight up upset in recent tournament memory? Of course it was Hampton beating Iowa State in 2001, 58-57 as an 18 point underdog! Unfortunately, the line fell out of the range of money line offerings for those wagering in Virginia who were likely the only folks to believe that could have happened.
Recent NCAA tournament ATS trends:
- Favorites are just 170-202-8 since ’98 in the NCAA’s.
- Double digit favorites are 56-61-2 ATS.
- Favorites of 3 points or less are just 38-48 SU & 34-51-1 ATS (40%) in that span.
- Two games have been pick em’ spreads since ’98, and each was won by the lower seeded team. Illinois St beat Tennessee 82-81 in ’98, and Gonzaga beat Minnesota 77-66 in 2000.
Totals
What about totals? The linemakers seem to have an excellent handle on total placement, as of the 315 NCAA tourney games that had totals, 156 went OVER and 158 went UNDER. Furthermore, the closest element that could be derived as a trend when looking at totals overall is that 33 of 60 games (55%) with a total of 130 points or less went OVER. In last year’s tournament, 12 of 19 games with a total of 145 or more went UNDER. From a general standpoint, everything else regarding totals seems to be as probable as the flip of the coin. Thankfully, you’ll see from some of the round by round analysis, that there are some total patterns that have formed.
Seed Records
The following are the ATS records by seed. Keep in mind that a handful of times, a #1 seed played another #1 seed, or a #2 played a #2, etc. You’ll see that the #10 seed has had the best ATS record since ’98. Furthermore, seeds #8 or below have compiled a 163-143-5 ATS mark, hitting at a 53.3% clip. The particular success of the teams seeded 10 through 12 can probably be explained by the notion that these are the last “at-large” teams to receive bids. Often these are teams that had to rally late in the year to receive a bid, and are generally playing well going into the tournament.
Seed ATS Record
#1: 48-49-3 (49%)
#2: 28-43-2 (39%)
#3: 38-32-1 (54%)
#4: 24-28-1 (46%)
#5: 25-25-2 (50%)
#6: 27-25-2 (52%)
#7: 14-24 (37%)
#8: 26-18 (59%)
#9: 17-20 (46%)
#10: 29-18-1 (62%)
#11: 18-16-2 (53%)
#12: 22-15 (59%)
#13: 15-15-2 (50%)
#14: 10-16 (38%)
#15: 15-10 (60%)
#16: 11-15 (42%)
Browse to the following link for the entire NCAA article...
http://statfox.com/cbb/previews/ncaa2004.asp
Good luck!
StatFox
OVERALL TOURNAMENT RECORDS (since 1998)
It’s no secret that seeding is critical and that the regular season means everything when it comes to earning a higher seed in the tournament. The results show that 261 of the 382 games in the NCAA’s since ’98 have been won by the higher seed, 68.3%. Granted, this stat means more to the office pool participant than it does to the ATS bettor, who’s more interested in the fact that the higher seed has compiled just a 171-201-8 ATS record in that span, for 46.0%. Certainly makes the case for more money line wagering, doesn’t it? It also serves note that the hype surrounding the “Cinderella” teams (Kent St, Gonzaga, etc) that advance through the tournament only tells half of the story. You’ll see later that the seeds with the highest ATS marks in the last five years are actually all 8th or below! Before going any further though, quickly... can anyone recall the biggest straight up upset in recent tournament memory? Of course it was Hampton beating Iowa State in 2001, 58-57 as an 18 point underdog! Unfortunately, the line fell out of the range of money line offerings for those wagering in Virginia who were likely the only folks to believe that could have happened.
Recent NCAA tournament ATS trends:
- Favorites are just 170-202-8 since ’98 in the NCAA’s.
- Double digit favorites are 56-61-2 ATS.
- Favorites of 3 points or less are just 38-48 SU & 34-51-1 ATS (40%) in that span.
- Two games have been pick em’ spreads since ’98, and each was won by the lower seeded team. Illinois St beat Tennessee 82-81 in ’98, and Gonzaga beat Minnesota 77-66 in 2000.
Totals
What about totals? The linemakers seem to have an excellent handle on total placement, as of the 315 NCAA tourney games that had totals, 156 went OVER and 158 went UNDER. Furthermore, the closest element that could be derived as a trend when looking at totals overall is that 33 of 60 games (55%) with a total of 130 points or less went OVER. In last year’s tournament, 12 of 19 games with a total of 145 or more went UNDER. From a general standpoint, everything else regarding totals seems to be as probable as the flip of the coin. Thankfully, you’ll see from some of the round by round analysis, that there are some total patterns that have formed.
Seed Records
The following are the ATS records by seed. Keep in mind that a handful of times, a #1 seed played another #1 seed, or a #2 played a #2, etc. You’ll see that the #10 seed has had the best ATS record since ’98. Furthermore, seeds #8 or below have compiled a 163-143-5 ATS mark, hitting at a 53.3% clip. The particular success of the teams seeded 10 through 12 can probably be explained by the notion that these are the last “at-large” teams to receive bids. Often these are teams that had to rally late in the year to receive a bid, and are generally playing well going into the tournament.
Seed ATS Record
#1: 48-49-3 (49%)
#2: 28-43-2 (39%)
#3: 38-32-1 (54%)
#4: 24-28-1 (46%)
#5: 25-25-2 (50%)
#6: 27-25-2 (52%)
#7: 14-24 (37%)
#8: 26-18 (59%)
#9: 17-20 (46%)
#10: 29-18-1 (62%)
#11: 18-16-2 (53%)
#12: 22-15 (59%)
#13: 15-15-2 (50%)
#14: 10-16 (38%)
#15: 15-10 (60%)
#16: 11-15 (42%)
Browse to the following link for the entire NCAA article...
http://statfox.com/cbb/previews/ncaa2004.asp
Good luck!
StatFox
