I heard that double-digit road dogs in the NBA this season have good success off a previous loss ATS. The Celts fit this profile last night being 11.5 point underdogs against San Antonio. Would a person put a bet on a team because of this?
I had to question this play since San Antonio was doing excellent at home even without Duncan and Boston had faltered in the last couple games. Given SA's large spread when winning I held off making this bet. SA ended up winning 103-87.
My question is, when do you follow your instinct when a system play says to play the opposite? Or should a person just not make that bet?
Also, we have been discussing when it is good to buy points and giving up vig. The numbers I have seen were based upon the history of the NFL from 1985 - 2000. What if a team was a low-scoring team? They would then be more likely to hit on a spread of 3 points and perhaps it would be wise to pay more vig on a team like this. I see too many bettors not taking individual teams into consideration and betting these system plays.
Anyone else?
I had to question this play since San Antonio was doing excellent at home even without Duncan and Boston had faltered in the last couple games. Given SA's large spread when winning I held off making this bet. SA ended up winning 103-87.
My question is, when do you follow your instinct when a system play says to play the opposite? Or should a person just not make that bet?
Also, we have been discussing when it is good to buy points and giving up vig. The numbers I have seen were based upon the history of the NFL from 1985 - 2000. What if a team was a low-scoring team? They would then be more likely to hit on a spread of 3 points and perhaps it would be wise to pay more vig on a team like this. I see too many bettors not taking individual teams into consideration and betting these system plays.
Anyone else?
