handicapping question.

johnmeister1234 · Mar 23, 2004

hi everyone, i recently read sharp sports betting, and i have been capping nba totals for sometime now, and feel that i am getting a decent handle on things, however in the book mr wong talks about only pulling the trigger when you feel that you have a certain % chance of winning. my question is, and maybe i am understanding this wrong, but say i have a game, how does one go about estimating their &chance of winning that game in order to find out if you should bet or not.

thank you
john

neilm · Mar 23, 2004

one way you could is to make your own line for the total and compare it to the line you are considering betting.

For comparison of %s you can use about 1.2% per half point the line is off.

For example if a line is 199 and you make it 196...it is off by 6 half points, giving you a 57.2% expected winning percentage if your line is correct.