Buying points: is there value in doing this?

BigGamesOnly · Oct 19, 2003

We've all seen the lines at -7.5 for a football favorite and thought it would be nice to have that line at -7. On the other side we see +2.5 for a dog and would like to see +3. Of course, most books will allow us to buy a half a point (or more) at a cost of having a lower line.

For example, if the -7.5 is at -108 we can buy a half a point to -7 at -135 (or some similar number). Is it worth the increase in juice to make sure your number is a safer number or are you giving up too much profit?

mhk · Oct 19, 2003

Don't pay more than 20 cents, and buy off of and on to the 3,(sometimes 4), and 7 in the nfl, buy on to and off of the 2 in hoops, imo...

bigplaytrends · Oct 19, 2003

In my case today I was working with a system play that says play on SD at +6 no less....I should've moved earlier in the week when it mas closer to 6...but to stay w/ my system I had to buy up from +4 to +6 at -150...turns out I didnt need it

ATX · Oct 19, 2003

most peoplw will tell you the only # that makes sense to buy off of in football is the 3.

it also seems that later in seasons the half point (esp the 3) becomes more valuable

I buy off 7 sometimes, but it depends on the situation, same with the 3. A lot of times when I buy it's when I think a game will move.

I usually buy off the two in basketball.

It really all boils down to how your wagers do with buying pts. If you keep track and the amount spent or profit forgone by buying points adds to your account, then you are making good decisions. If you are buying and the extra amount is costing you then it's another story.

Personally, I am up a little from buying (keep in mind I dont usually buy to -2.5, so it's a form of insurance taking -3.5 to -3) but not much. I know that I have bought more than a dozen games in a row at some points without it making a difference, but then along comes 3 out of 7 games where it saved me. In a lot of cases you can save the extra cost of buying by taking games early before a line moves. It seems that if a game opens at -3.5 and stays there or moves to -4 or more that the game doesnt land on 3 as often. When a game opens at -2,-2.5 and moves to -3 or -3.5 then then it is more likely that the games will land on 3. That was the case with WAS a few weeks ago, and maybe the NFL opening game of the season, but I cant remember what the opening number was, just that I got a +3 and pushed on it, I think it might have opened at -2 tho, I know a lot of people took the -2.5

BigGamesOnly · Oct 19, 2003

ATX:

Was that Sept. 28th, Redskins over Patriots? Washington won that one by 3. I think I bought that one from -3.5 to -3.0 and pushed.

ATX · Oct 19, 2003

yeah, that was the one, I took -2.5 early.

also the NYJ/WAS game landed on 3.

seems like 5 and 7 are somewhat key numbers in basketball, the NBA especially, not when you look at every single game but just in certain situations, it's difficult to explain a lot of these probability distributions, but a lot of times teams seem to cover -5.5 and -7.5 in basketball, and dont cover the -4.5 and -6.5 esp. later in the year.

jwunderdog · Oct 20, 2003

In the NFL stat wise it doesn't pay to buy points even on and off of 3. Iguess if you are able to figure out which games you will need the points then maybe but, stat wise it is a bad bet.

TheGeneral+ · Oct 28, 2003

It does not appear to be very worthwhile in NFL to me. I pay attention and have not seen a a big enough edge in the purchase of a point. I think a point is much more valuable in hoops.

autiger · Oct 29, 2003

Since 16% of all games in the NFL land on 3(not to say the line was 3) doing the math it is value to buy off of 3 if you can lay less than 1.28.At most books this is now -1.30 and therefore would not be a good proposition.By the same token a few years ago I found that it had been 6 years since an NFL game with a line of 7 had actually hit on 7.To say the least not a good proposition.

jwunderdog · Oct 29, 2003

GO to the thread "where can I find system plays, and look at six sense's data and you will see it is not stat. wise a good thing to do.

SixthSense · Oct 29, 2003

jdog - Sorry I haven't responded back yet on the 2.5's and 3.5's, etc. I will run those numbers for you, probably on Friday, when I have more time.

jwunderdog · Oct 29, 2003

I forgot I asked you. If it is not a problem I would apprciate it but, I understand if you don't have time.Thanks

WEEKENDALKI · Nov 4, 2003

autiger, so am i a moron to buy down to 7 or down to 10 or even down to 14? I am thinking you are right. all of that juice is brutal. I just get paranoid that it will land on 10 when i don't buy it down. There are a few books that give a free half point. I should probably play at skybook or BHB with the free half before paying the 20% juice. Your thoughts?

Gridster · Nov 5, 2003

In the past I've always bought down to three, didn't need to do the math because it has saved me on several occasions. But its an interesting question, and since I have data back to the start of the 2000 NFL season I decided to do the analysis. This includes 2003 NFL thru week 09, including the playoffs and excluding preseason.

There were 49 2.5 point spreads, and 3 games were won by 3. Lets make it 6 out of 98 to make the math straightforward. Without buying, and using the coin to pick, you'd expect to hit 49 and miss 49, and if you're betting $11 to win $10 you lose $49. If you by it up to 3 at $13 to win $10, you still hit 49 but you only lose 43, you win $490 and lose $559, for a net loss of $69. It doesn't look like it helps to buy up to 3, but its close enough and the sample's a little small so I wouldn't argue either way.

Now for buying off the 3. There were 175 3pt spreads with 21 pushes. So over the course of 350 plays the flip leaves you at 154-154-42 and you lose $154. Buy either way, it doesn't matter, and your record becomes 196-154, and you lose $42. Pretty substantial, and I'd say it pays (or loses less) to buy off the three.

What about buying down to 3? There were 69 3.5 spreads and 8 losses would have been averted by buying down to 3. Over 138 games, without buying you go 69-69 and lose $69. If you buy down every game you go 69-53, and you end up WINNING $1. It looks to me like it pays to buy down to 3.

wagnertp · Nov 6, 2003

this might help.
http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/key_numbers.htm

BigGamesOnly · Nov 6, 2003

Thanks Tom for that link. I love that web site. I should take more advantage of what they have there.

I'm reading a book that explains this topic. I'll try to post a synopsis after I have read that chapter.

I should have invested in a book a long time ago. It would have paid for itself.

Fezzik · Nov 18, 2003

NFL 3. Pay 22 cents to buy on/off the 3. The number needs to be tweaked slightly on a game by game basis but the 22 cent average is usually right withing a few pennies.

Example. +2.5 +112, +3 -110, +3.5 -132 are all pretty equal. Note, this is obvious to any serious bettors, as some books deal split lines with this correct adjustment.

NFL 7. Buying on/off 7 is a good idea if you pay only 10 cents, it likely is worth 11 cents.

College 3 and 7. Both are worth about 10 cents. So a buy on/off is a really close call. Probably makes a lot of sense if you have a low total in a game later in the year.

I get a kick out of this entire thread. 25 posts, and I did not get the impression more than 1-2 posters had a clue about the proper use of point buying.

winkyduck · Nov 18, 2003

nice to see ya here, steve.

good luck in the semis of the stardust. any word on what week it will be - and will you face stratton, or someone else?

Fezzik · Nov 19, 2003

I stil have to talk to JK about scheduling.

My hats off to David Stratton. Based on his writing, I thought he was a square bettor. Imagine my surprise to hear his insightful and excellent picks.

Teddy and I were joking that we wanted to go up against David. Be careful what you wish for!!

Redneckman · Nov 20, 2003

I never buy points. Odds aren't with you.

Buying points: is there value in doing this?

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