58.3% for the year NFL - How does it rate?

This season I had a contest with friends in which we had to pick five sides and/or totals for weeks 1 through 17 in the NFL.

I was correct 58.3% of the time, which includes week 17 where I had my only 1-4 week and hated the numbers but had to play anyway.

I won the contest.

How good/bad IS 58.3%? Last season I only hit 56%. What do you guys normally do for a year in the NFL?

You may laugh but my whole "system" is:

1. Intuition

2. Buying a couple magazines with trends/angles before the season starts and selectively playing them - they often get me ON a game I overlook or OFF a game that is questionable

Thanks for your comments,

E

WELCOME E.

58.3% IS VERY GOOD. IF YOU CAN KEEP THAT UP DEPENDING ON YOUR NUMBER OF GAMES BET AND AMOUNT BET YOU CAN BECOME VERY WEALTHY WITH THOSE KIND OF NUMBERS. THIS YEAR I HIT ON 60.7%. MY LAST 10 OR SO YEARS IVE AVERAGED AROUND 57-59%.
I DO LIKE YOU MOSTLY. WHEN I CAP A GAME I USE ABOUT 80% INTUITION AND 20% STATS. I DONT USE MAGAZINES BECAUSE I DONT LIKE TRENDS BECAUSE TEAM PERSONNEL (PLAYERS,COACHES AND THEIR COACHING STYLES CHANGE EVERY YEAR). ALSO MAGAZINES ARE PRINTED BEFORE THE SEASON STARTS AND BY OPENING DAY THE ROSTERS WITH TRADES, INJURIES AND SUCH COULD BE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT.
IF YOU CAN KEEP THAT % UP THERE YOU WILL DO ALRIGHT, BUT REMEMBER 58% ONE YEAR AND 45% THE NEXT PUTS YOU IN THE SOUP LINE.

GOOD LUCK

That's a very solid year. With the proper money management, you will profit every year at that rate. I ended up 79-60-10 for 56.8%. And that was with a # of bad beats a pushes. So there's always room for improvement. With some better line shopping I could have been around 60%. My method involves weighing factors to narrow down plays.
So if you just fine tune your method, and take a lesson from mistakes, you will be just fine.

Congrats on a Winning Season
Gary

Damned good picking.

Out of curiosity, I compared this percentage to the Hilton Contest winners.

58.3% would have tied for 18th place.

This is out of 345 entries, so you would have been in the top 5%.

Hey, don't hold secrets - what were the magazines and which trends worked?

Dodger is right,,, the Cats in that contest were some of the BEST in the industry,,,,, dont fool yourself,,,, they were the BEST,,,,, so all the COC*SUC*ERS that are out there that say they win 65% are lying,,,, especially picking that many games,,,,

congrats,,, Hone your strategy,,, and DO NOT PLAY OUT POOR Money Management,,,

that is probably 80% of NFL capping good Money management,,

Tater

EIBON...QUOTE "I HATED THE NUMBERS BUT HAD TO PLAY ANYWAY"

dont take this the wrong-way......but that simple statement will have you busted in the world of sports betting...

i realize for the sake of the contest you had to make a play..........but from your statement you obviously were taking bad numbers........which will also bust you....


a common mistake i see handicappers make when giving out selections is far too many take bad numbers.....taking a chance that a half-point wont beat them...but in the long run it always does........gl

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by jdodger:
Damned good picking.

Out of curiosity, I compared this percentage to the Hilton Contest winners.

58.3% would have tied for 18th place.

This is out of 345 entries, so you would have been in the top 5%.

Hey, don't hold secrets - what were the magazines and which trends worked?<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Wow, the top 5%. Too bad I have a tiny bankroll and wouldn't win much if I bet all the picks LOL

No secrets here. I got the VEGAS EXPERTS Football Betting Guide in the mail before last season, it was (surprisingly) very good. They had sort of a 'pick of the year' beneath every team to go along with the trends, and they turned out to be quite good.

One I used a lot more was called Inside Players' Pro Football Guide. This one had trends out the ass... right next to the schedule, broken down by month, A 'good', 'bad', 'ugly' breakdown, results for the past 4 years ATS, division data, over/under report, off a win or loss, coming off a bye week (THIS was useful), even preseason trends (I hardly ever mess with preseason games so this meant nothing to me), Monday Night trends (again, VERY useful), off home/away games, and more. I sincerely hope they are putting this magazine out again this year, I found it at Hastings last year.

I was angry I did not hit 60% last year, with a decent Week 17 (I always do awful in that week for whatever reason) I would have, and the Monday Night Nightmare (Tampa Bay pissing away a huge lead against the Colts) didn't help either. In fact, that game cost me a perfect 5-0 week - no one has had one of those in our contest before.

Another thing I put a lot of stock in is going against the public... everybody wanted the under in the SuperBowl with NE/Car. Simple research indicated that games on grass usually went OVER, while indoor games went UNDER most of the time. So my main play on the SB was OVER, and I picked Carolina +7 since NE rarely wins games by big margins and Carolina had so much momentum. I hit the parlay, but hardly had any money on it. At least it went OVER so I didn't look foolish, it sure didn't look like it would early

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by dimeplayersonly:
EIBON...QUOTE "I HATED THE NUMBERS BUT HAD TO PLAY ANYWAY"

dont take this the wrong-way......but that simple statement will have you busted in the world of sports betting...

i realize for the sake of the contest you had to make a play..........but from your statement you obviously were taking bad numbers........which will also bust you....


a common mistake i see handicappers make when giving out selections is far too many take bad numbers.....taking a chance that a half-point wont beat them...but in the long run it always does........gl<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I know... believe me, if I am betting individual games I am quite conservative... WAY too conservative actually. I had New England +400 over St. Louis in the SB 2 years ago... too bad I only bet $40. I had Ohio St. +375 over Miami in the NCAA Championship the same year, only bet about $40.

But in a contest, where you have to take 5 sides/totals a week no matter what, I did what I thought was best, and went a whole 1-4 - I've never had a week that bad before.

wow. 58% is incredible. maybe you should join the guy who guarantees 60% winners on that wiseplays.com site that looks weak but who knows. ive seen worse. id be a millionaire if i could hit 6 of 10 games. i neeeed football.

thats is very good...keep up the work....I should be so damn lucky....

oh and watch out for this dirtbag out of vegas that thinks he does 90% brian mullen