i need someone who handicapps seriously and incorporates rushing stats to email me. my address is fbmike@cox.net.i need to ask a basic question or 2 but im not here much so id rather communicate in my email. thanks guys.
Here is something I wrote in 2000.
NFL STATISICS - PICK JUST ONE
Do you remember that old question? “If you were stranded on a Desert Island and you could only bring one item, what would it be”? Here is another question. If you could only have one NFL statistic to make your weekly predictions against the pointspread (ATS), which one would you choose? Don’t look around the page, just focus on this paragraph. It would be like receiving a very abbreviated boxscore each week. You can select any individual statistic or even a creative statistic like Yards Per Point, but let’s make it a little more difficult. You can only have the Offensive or Defensive portion of the stat. Now, don’t bother asking for the score because you can have the ESPN highlights once a week, just to see if anybody “Might Go All The Way”. So, you’ll have the scores and the pointspreads each week, plus your one special statistic. Oh yeah, you can’t watch any games (just the highlites), that would be cheating. Now, stop reading and think about it.
With all the data available to the modern day sports handicapper, it can at times be too much. The new phrase “paralysis by analysis” has been used to characterize this situation, and the old phrase “can’t see the forest for the trees” sums it up. The exercise above was meant to stimulate your thoughts on moving in a direction towards using less NFL statistical data.
Any statistic you select to use from an NFL boxscore should first correlate reasonably well to the ATS win percentage. Ranking your statistics is a good way to do this. If it correlates top and bottom, and does so over many years then you have a useful statistic. One such NFL stat that qualifies on all counts is Defensive Rush Attempts (DRA). Think about that statistic, it tells you how many times per game your average opponent runs the ball at you. What does it represent? The league averages per game over the last three years (1997-1999) have been 28.40, 28.25, and 27.32 respectively. It’s a stat many people quickly dismiss. They are more interested in the Offensive counterpart because it is very descriptive of a team’s offensive style – a running team or a passing team.
DRA is a measure of both Defensive and Offensive strengths. The St Louis Rams complied a very low DRA (21.23) in 1999. This was a result of a good Offensive, which put up points early, forcing their opponents off "the game plan". Their Defensive also helped to keep them off it. The idea is to make your opponent pass the ball not because they want to - but because they have to. Teams like this are generally Playoff caliber. A team with the best DRA number at the end of the regular season is likely to win the Super Bowl. Look at the tables of the top four Playoffs teams of the last three years. The number 1 Ranked DRA team going into the Playoffs, has won the Super Bowl in each of those years. Will this happen every year? No, but more so than not, would be true.
One might say “hey, the Packers were Ranked 14th and made it to the Super Bowl in 1997”. Yes, they did but they were 11.5 point favorites in that Super Bowl and they lost the game out right! Also, in the Viking-Falcons NFC Championship game in 1998, the Vikings were DRA Ranked 9th and the Falcons were 2nd. Another big favorite gets snapped off, losing not only the pointspread but the game too! Anytime there is a big difference in DRA and one team is Ranked high, there should be cause for concern (or maybe delight) especially if the favorite is the lower Ranking team. One last Playoff example, the Seahawks were hosting the Dolphins in last year’s Wildcard Game. The Seahawks were Ranked a miserable 26th DRA (not Payoff caliber), while the Dolphins were a respectable 11th. Again the Dolphins a 3.5 point underdog won straight up on the road.
You should be using the DRA statistic every week but a good time to find your Super Bowl winner is about mid season after Week #8. In the last three years the Super Bowl winner has been lurking in the Top 3 Ranking of Defensive Rush Attempts. It is probably safe to say that in most years your Super Bowl Winner will be found in the Top 4 of the DRA Ranking, when you are working on those picks for week #9.
NFL STATISICS - PICK JUST ONE
Do you remember that old question? “If you were stranded on a Desert Island and you could only bring one item, what would it be”? Here is another question. If you could only have one NFL statistic to make your weekly predictions against the pointspread (ATS), which one would you choose? Don’t look around the page, just focus on this paragraph. It would be like receiving a very abbreviated boxscore each week. You can select any individual statistic or even a creative statistic like Yards Per Point, but let’s make it a little more difficult. You can only have the Offensive or Defensive portion of the stat. Now, don’t bother asking for the score because you can have the ESPN highlights once a week, just to see if anybody “Might Go All The Way”. So, you’ll have the scores and the pointspreads each week, plus your one special statistic. Oh yeah, you can’t watch any games (just the highlites), that would be cheating. Now, stop reading and think about it.
With all the data available to the modern day sports handicapper, it can at times be too much. The new phrase “paralysis by analysis” has been used to characterize this situation, and the old phrase “can’t see the forest for the trees” sums it up. The exercise above was meant to stimulate your thoughts on moving in a direction towards using less NFL statistical data.
Any statistic you select to use from an NFL boxscore should first correlate reasonably well to the ATS win percentage. Ranking your statistics is a good way to do this. If it correlates top and bottom, and does so over many years then you have a useful statistic. One such NFL stat that qualifies on all counts is Defensive Rush Attempts (DRA). Think about that statistic, it tells you how many times per game your average opponent runs the ball at you. What does it represent? The league averages per game over the last three years (1997-1999) have been 28.40, 28.25, and 27.32 respectively. It’s a stat many people quickly dismiss. They are more interested in the Offensive counterpart because it is very descriptive of a team’s offensive style – a running team or a passing team.
DRA is a measure of both Defensive and Offensive strengths. The St Louis Rams complied a very low DRA (21.23) in 1999. This was a result of a good Offensive, which put up points early, forcing their opponents off "the game plan". Their Defensive also helped to keep them off it. The idea is to make your opponent pass the ball not because they want to - but because they have to. Teams like this are generally Playoff caliber. A team with the best DRA number at the end of the regular season is likely to win the Super Bowl. Look at the tables of the top four Playoffs teams of the last three years. The number 1 Ranked DRA team going into the Playoffs, has won the Super Bowl in each of those years. Will this happen every year? No, but more so than not, would be true.
One might say “hey, the Packers were Ranked 14th and made it to the Super Bowl in 1997”. Yes, they did but they were 11.5 point favorites in that Super Bowl and they lost the game out right! Also, in the Viking-Falcons NFC Championship game in 1998, the Vikings were DRA Ranked 9th and the Falcons were 2nd. Another big favorite gets snapped off, losing not only the pointspread but the game too! Anytime there is a big difference in DRA and one team is Ranked high, there should be cause for concern (or maybe delight) especially if the favorite is the lower Ranking team. One last Playoff example, the Seahawks were hosting the Dolphins in last year’s Wildcard Game. The Seahawks were Ranked a miserable 26th DRA (not Payoff caliber), while the Dolphins were a respectable 11th. Again the Dolphins a 3.5 point underdog won straight up on the road.
You should be using the DRA statistic every week but a good time to find your Super Bowl winner is about mid season after Week #8. In the last three years the Super Bowl winner has been lurking in the Top 3 Ranking of Defensive Rush Attempts. It is probably safe to say that in most years your Super Bowl Winner will be found in the Top 4 of the DRA Ranking, when you are working on those picks for week #9.
