boxing futures

1)michael stewart vs terron millett...i see millett as a has been...has been losing to every pseudo contender they`ve put him in with recently....and has taken some serious beatings along the way....stewart is 30 something and 1....not a huge banger...but quick and should be able to outmanuver a slow,shot millett....-200 is not outrageous...i hate laying odds,but it`s tough to keep picking underdog winners in boxing..

hector camacho jr -220 over sebastian valdez.....camacho jr is in a make or break situation...after the leija debacle and a loss,he is in no position to lose again...he is fighting a decent guy(18-4) with a few decent wins...i just see this a to large a step-up in class for valdez...with camacho`s career hanging in the balance...he has taken some time off to refocus...


smaller play-omar weis -200 over emanuel augustus(burton)....augustus is a journeyman that takes enormous amounts of punishment in every fight...he is always in fairly close fights that he usually does just enough to lose in...the espn2 crew love him because of his gatti-mickey ward mentality and he has become somewhat of a fan favorite(which makes this a little tougher because the judges appear to look for excuses recently to give guys like augustus the benefit of the doubt because the teddy atlas` and max kellerman`s come all over themselves because emanuel always gives an action fight regardless of the cost to his body)....weis is as slick as they come and will almost certainly jump out to an early lead...he is a much slicker boxer and is tough....but,the inevitable burton comeback will be cause for concern as we all know it is better to finish strong than to start strong...therefore,a lesser play as this is on espn2 and atlas and kellerman will stage their usual burton love-fest...i will say that augustus recently beat juan vilches(who holds a close win over weis)....i still like weis a little if this is fairly judged..


prop-scott harrison vs wayne(the pocket rocket) mccollough...
harrison is the champ and will be fighting at home in scotland....he is the only scottish champ right now....he is a full fledged featherweight...not a banger(18-1 with 9 k.o.`s).....mccollough was a champion at bantamweight...has since moved up to super bantam and now featherweight...has never been a huge puncher at any weight....had to take some time off due to having a cyst in his brain or something(that has since been determined to not be a threat to his boxing career)...

mccollough is an action fighter with a fairly high activity level....

he is not a big puncher...wasn`t at bantamweight....certainly isn`t at featherweight.....and has gone the distance with heavy punchers like nasseem hamed and eric morales in 12 round bouts......in fact,he has NEVER been stopped...

now,he goes into scott harrison`s backyard in scotland to fight the only scottish champ....and harrison himself only has 9 k.o.`s in 18 wins....now,if NOBODY has been able to stop mccollough(including much better guys than harrison),i doubt that harrison will be able to stop mccollough...and harrison will be fighting the fight of his life in front of his home fans vs a fighter that has moved up 2 weight classes in his career...he`s not a natural featherweight....and at these lower weight levels,a few pounds is significant...

mcollough`s lack of big punching power(he can wear opponents down,but does not k.o. guys with big shots)to go along with his move up in weight fighting a guy that is in his hometown,but is also not a big puncher....and mccollough may have one of the BEST chins in boxing...

the fight is at -120 each.....mccollough is +205 via decision....harrison is +210 via decision...i`m taking a shot on both guys via decision...

harrison is a bit of an unknown but in his last fight beat a very good fighter named julio pablo chacon(44-2 w/31 k.o.`s going into the fight)...he will be tough at home and i don`t expect a mccollough to be able to stop him if chacon couldn`t...

cuts and headbutts are always a concern...but,mccollough has been around the horn in boxing and has always found a way to finish fights..harrison at home defending his crown...2 guys that are not big punchers with good and great chins..i`ll take the shot.....

also,i`m hedging a bit with a flat bet on harrison...he`s been on a roll lately and been stopping some guys at home in fights....but,mccullough has an iron chin and i`m not afraid of wagering on him hanging around...when harrison stepped up in class vs chacon(whose losses were to the tough freddie norwood and some guy early in his career by split decision)he had to go 12...mccollough is around 32 years old and has never won a title above bantamweight...

g.l.

[This message was edited by sphincter on 01-23-03 at 01:25 PM.]

[This message was edited by sphincter on 01-23-03 at 02:00 PM.]

when i said "pseudo-contender"in reference to millett i should have been more specific....he was blown-out by gatti and had his ears boxed off by ricardo williams(who i see as over-rated)....he has NEVER beaten a young,up and coming guy(wins over old,drug addicted vince phillips,virgil mcclendon and freddie pendleton).....he was champ when the division was extremely weak...

Thanx pal, unfortunately I havent seen alot of these guys opponents (like millets) fight before. How do you see these guys fight? I've never heard of some of them.

stewart fought on those showtime "hip-hop" daytime shows(i actually saw him take his only loss to dorrin spivey there)....i am wagering as much against a shot millett as on stewart....millett will try and rough him up,but i think stewart will outbox millett...have not seen valdez....but i know a guy who has and says he`s nothing special...a southpaw in his 30`s with very little power..........i have to confess to not having seen scott harrison of scotland...but from reading up on him and knowing mccullough(we`ve all seen the pocket rocket numerous times)i really like the decision prop with a lean towards harrison...he claims he wil k.o. mccullough,but,nobody else has.....and 9 k.o.`s in 18 wins fighting primarily in scotland does not lead me to believe the guy`s a banger.... i saw rafael marquez destroy "too sharp johnson"....maybe johnson was over the hill?....i`ll try the +200 with a marquez that has been coming on strong in his career(and has great bloodlines)..austin is one of the top pound for pound guys so i`m on a thin limb with this one....not for the faint of heart or anyone considering bankruptcy.......i wouldn`t bet the mortgage on any of these....i hope to collectively make a profit,though...but,it is a gamble

Great write-ups sphincter. Thank you.

thanks laker.....one clarification...i was somewhat vague regarding the harrison-mccullough bout....mccullough started his career at bantamweight and has moved up to feather....as far as i know,harrison has been a featherweight throughout his career...hope i didn`t confuse anybody...

last item-have decided to hedge the marquez +220 bet with austin by k.o.,t.k.o. or disq at -110......marquez` 3 losses were all by k.o. early in his career...if he gets stopped,we lose a couple bucks.....if he wins,at +220,we win a decent piece of change....would rather be protected when wagering against top notch fighters...

Youre betting against Austin? I cant ride with you on that one.

yeah....that`s why i hedged the wager.....felt a little exposed going against a top pound for pound guy.....this is not a strong play,but at 2+ to 1 marquez may have a shot....but,as i said,all his losses were inside the distance....good luck.

may have to rescind my omar weis play...just found out if augustus wins friday he`s part of an elimination bout to fight kostya tszyu....how this happened,i don`t know.....for a guy with almost 20 losses to get this kind of consideration is mind-boggling...augustus fights hard,but he`s not as good as freddy pendleton was after he started his career with a bunch of losses...this guy must have some serious juice behind him(or someone sees him as an easy stepping stone to get a title shot at tszyu)....maybe sharmba mitchell`s people are pulling the strings....anyway,it all bodes badly for omar weis...he is a better fighter than augustus,but,it may be close and under these circumstances,he probably won`t get a decision...that`s boxing...i`ll take a small shot with weis still(the odds have dropped and that makes me think something might be funny)but i would not recommend it to anyone with all this extraneous b. s. going on.....i advise everyone to lay off or be very careful...this stuff ruins boxing...

Heard weis was absent from the gym on occasion.

Thanks for the update on Weis

God damn I was ready to pull the trigger on Weis for some big money. I'm on the fence right now.

these boxing lines are getting tougher....and boxing politics are getting suckier.....i`m looking at over 10 rounds.....weis was stopped once earlier in his career(in the 10th) but it was for a latin title in the other guy`s hometown....neither guy is a k.o. guy.....weis is slick....-240?.....they make you pay...as i said before,i hate laying odds...feeling bigtime football withdrawal....just for the record....small play on weis(wouldn`t recommend it due to the funny business).......over 10 rounds weis-augustus(-240...hate laying these odds)...neither a big-time puncher...both durable...please,no head butts...could be a barn burner....lots of punches(from guys that aren`t big punchers)...am stuck with my earlier pick on weis(before i found out about the augustus-sharmba mitchell deal)..still think weis is slicker over 10...will he get the decision?...that`s the question..i am prepared to see weis lose a close decision he maybe should win...boxing politics suck....we`ll see....i have a strange feeling about this one.....we`ll have to sit through teddy atlas and max kellerman drooling all over augustus...for astute boxing guys,they still love guys that could give a damn about defense....augustus is a talented guy....but he`s either to hard headed or stupid to fight smart defensively....and that`s the reason for the 19 losses...again,please no head butts or cuts....g.l.

[This message was edited by sphincter on 02-07-03 at 06:37 PM.]

Spinch, do you know that Augustus is Emanual Burton, the guy that fought Mickey Ward? He changed his name. Now I really am laying off this.

yes.....and although ward is one tough s.o.b.,he is technically a terrible fighter....after reading more on this bout,i`m more worried about the potential decision...i`m buying off some of the weis bet....

well,shouldn`t have given ANY of the weis bet back.....still,2 for 2 with a nice medium wager on over 10 rounds......was a one-sided bout that the judges would have never been able to explain....augustus is tough,but,he`s still a glorified club fighter....

[This message was edited by sphincter on 02-07-03 at 11:48 PM.]

[This message was edited by sphincter on 02-08-03 at 12:28 AM.]

i wasn`t very clear on tonight`s bout between rafael marquez and tim austin....i took austin by k.o. or stoppage at either -100 ot -110(i don`t remember) and then took marquez at +220....i have put a little more on marquez at +400...i think +400 is way outta line...i know austin is a very good bantamweight....and i know most boxing guys love him....but marquez has been very hot and may be coming into his own....good bloodlines,as tall as austin,and he beat up mark "too sharp" johnson(who was not to far away from being a top pound for pound guy himself and a lefty,like austin)....my reasoning is that marquez lost 3 times early in his career....all by stoppage....so,if he has a suspect chin,austin has a very good shot at taking him out.....if austin stops marquez,we basically push....if marquez has actually become as good as he has looked recently,taking a shot with him at between +220 and +400 is worth a shot.....at +400,you don`t have to bet that much to get a nice return....as i said,many boxing guys i know think marquez may not be for real...i know he can punch....the hedge makes sense to me...if austin wins via decision,we get cornholed on both wagers....as usual,these odds have moved a little since my original post....the hedge value may be gone.....g.l.

sphincter,

I am betting small on this fight, but I think your approach makes sense. Here is what I am betting at Pinnacle:

R. Marquez +432

Will Austin win by KO? Yes -145

Risking just enough on Austin by KO to cover my bet on Marquez.

Thanks

Hell Yeah.