MAJOR Democratic Primary Movement

D2bets · Jan 6, 2004

General Clark Surges to Within Margin of Error of Dean

This is goin to become a 2-man race, the question is when. If it happens soon enough, General Clark can overtake Dean with relative ease. Pay attention to the favorability ratings in this poll, -11 for Dean, +11 for Clark. Dean has his Deaniacs but when it comes time to come off the fence and decide between what is a 2man race at that point, voters will choose the centrist General who can defeat the President.

Like I said, if it becomes a 2-man race, Clark will clean Dean's clock. In an odd quirk, Dean may atually benefit if Gephardt beat him in Iowa because Gep can't win the South but it would allow him to stay in the race lon enough to muddy the waters for Clark. As a Clark supporter, I'll be rooting for Dean to win Iowa thus eliminating Gephardt. Then Clark finishes 2nd in NH wiping out Kerry. Take SC and wipe out Edwards while Lieberman is shut out on Feb. 3 ad you have your two-man race with Clark having all the momentum. If this roadmap looks familiar, it's because it is. It was essentially fellow Arkansan and Rhodes Scholar Bill Clinton's road to victory in '92.

Load up on Clark futures NOW.

Brazil4Worldcup2002 · Jan 6, 2004

If it means anything my bookie has taken off the futures on this 2 horse race....it must only mean that Dean is too big of a favorite and no more contest!!
wishful thinking....doesnt matter, any democratic nominee will lose to bush (sniff sniff). At least the world has 4 more years of funny one liners.

WildBill · Jan 6, 2004

With ease? I don't know about that. Clark has had a free run the whole campaign. If he gets a major spot in it he will have to withstand the stuff Dean has taken. That will be the true test. While I agree Clark has a better shot at Bush, I don't know if people in the party really seem to care enough. This election seems to be the one where everyone gets back to their roots and supports their man, winnable or not. Just an observation, the Clinton years really got everyone into a centrist camp and Dean's comment about the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party really fired up a lot of partisanship within the party.

Oceans11 · Jan 6, 2004

So.
Out of 250+ million people...

Bush is the best ya got...??

Well OK then. You deserve everything ya get....

D2bets · Jan 7, 2004

On the NH front, Clark has pulled ahead of Kerry for the furst time and is surging there. In the ARG daily tracking poll, from Dec. 26 to Jan. 6 Kerry has fallen from 19 to 13% while Clark has risen from 12 to 16%. The poll notes that if this trend continues Clark will be alone in 2nd place. If Kerry can't finish 2nd in NH, he is toast, plain and simple.

Clark pulls ahead of Kerry in NH

D2bets · Jan 7, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by A2345exxx:
If it means anything my bookie has taken off the futures on this 2 horse race....it must only mean that Dean is too big of a favorite and no more contest!!
wishful thinking....doesnt matter, any democratic nominee will lose to bush (sniff sniff). At least the world has 4 more years of funny one liners.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Just the opposite. It's OTB because so much can happen quickly this late. And it is happening too. Clark is the only candidate building momentum, and building it fast wih more money to burn. His resume ads are working well.

EverFresh · Jan 7, 2004

General Clark will spank little shrub like a cheap whore come November, mark my words!

Shotgun · Jan 8, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by D2bets:
Just the opposite. It's OTB because so much can happen quickly this late. And it is happening too. Clark is the only candidate building momentum, and building it fast wih more money to burn. His resume ads are working well.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Any momentum Clark gains now will dissipate once the Iowa numbers come in. If Dean wins Iowa and New Hampshire, it is over regardless of which dwarf finishes 2nd. If Gephardt wins Iowa, he becomes the one that the anti-Dean crowd rallies around. If Kerry wins Iowa, chaos takes over and Hillary warms up her bus.

Some years you can ignore Iowa; not in 2004.

D2bets · Jan 8, 2004

Shotgun, you're just plain wrong, not sure how else to put it. Clark has zero expectations about Iowa as he's not competing there. Therefore whatever happens there will not hurt his momentum. I agree though that Gephardt could rise if he wins Iowa and Clark would actually be better off with a Dean win and Gep out of the way. Kerry has 0 chance in Iowa. He is all but done.

I wouldn't even put it past the realm of possibility that Clark wins NH outright. The ARG daily tracking poll shows his surge is conitnuing. Today's is:
Dean 35
Clark 18
Kerry 12
Lieberman 8
Gephardt 6
Dean led Clark something like 45 to 8 about 3 weeks ago. And beyond this Clark is the only other candidate who is strong in several Feb. 3 states and can run strong in the south.

D2bets · Jan 8, 2004

In case anyone remembers the last Dem primary vs. an incumebent Republican was '92 when Clinton got 4% in Iowa, finished a distant 2nd in NH, trailed big in the polls in Dec/Jan and surged in the South. Clark also happens to be a Rhodes Scholar from Arkansas. The parallels are striking...other than Clark not being a womanizer or draft dodger.

D2bets · Jan 8, 2004

For those that follow the markets in this kind of thing, at tradesports.com, 'Field' (which essentially is Clark) has jumped from 13.4 o 24.0 just this week. Dean is at 65.0 and the next closest to Clark is Gephardt at a lowly 4.5. So if you believe in these markets they are truly telling us that this is now a 2-man race.

Shotgun · Jan 8, 2004

D2, Tom Harkin from Iowa was running in 1992. There was no campaign there because all the other candidates bypassed the state. This year there is a race...whoever wins will get a gigantic momentum boost that will dominate the news cycle up until the New Hampshire primary. Clark will be an afterthought. It was an incredibly poor decision on his part to skip Iowa and one that likely will cost him his chance at the nomination. At the time his decision seemed reasonable. Now it is obviously a mistake.

You can compare Clinton to Clark all you want, but the political situation was 180 degrees different in 1992 than it is in 2004. Howard Dean is no Paul Tsongas.

D2bets · Jan 8, 2004

When he made the decision, I initially thought it was a mistake. Now I think it was a brilliant decision. Iowa is a caucus that simply would have required the kind of organization there that he couldn't have possibly built up in order to take on both Gep and SDean who were entrenched there. Iowans expect to see your face contantly and Clark couldn't commit that when realistically he could only hope for 3rd even with a huge amount of work. NH is a state much more tailored to him and a strong finish there would give him the needed boost going into Feb 3. If and when he does finish a strong 2nd in NH, Iowa will be an afterthought and he will have the needed MO heading into Feb. 3. He will also have all that extra cash on hand for the multitude of other states that he would have had to spend in Iowa. Post-Iowa he will likely have more cash than Dean. Are you saying that because he won't show in Iowa that NH voters will turn their back on him? I don't think so. All are well aware that he's skipping Iowa so there's no expectations. Like I said, as long as he finishes 2nd in NH, hopefully with 20%+ then Iowa will be ancient histry and he will have all the buzz heading into Feb. 3.

Skipping Iowa was a very necessary and good decision by General Clark's campaign.

Shotgun · Jan 8, 2004

D2, I'm talking about the media hype that will be surrounding whoever performs above expectations in Iowa. The winner will be the one with the momentum; not Clark who right now obviously has it.

I'll throw a football example into this. The last two weeks of the season the Colts got pounded by Denver and squeaked by Houston. But after one big playoff win, this team is called the hottest team in football by most of the talking heads on radio/TV (I have yet to see anyone in the national media pick Indy to lose Sunday...nice trick for a 3 point underdog). Why does everyone ignore New England who hasn't lost since September?

In football hype and media attention obviously doesn't matter. But in politics momentum, and the perception that you are a winner, are key to determining how successful a candidate will do. Clark, like the Patriots, is going to be ignored while the winner of Iowa will be annointed as the likely nominee (Dean), or the alternative to Dean.

I don't see how this can't do anything but hurt Clark...it is just my opinion though.

D2bets · Jan 8, 2004

I agree totally with you in respect to the expectations game -- you are absolutely correct there. Thing is, Dean is expected to win so if he does it isn't a huge victory. Likewise, he's expected to win NH...by a wide margin. If either is even close it will almost be like a loss. Now id Gep or Kery win then it is huge for them. Clark has no expectations in Iowa so it doesn't matter to him and nobody's going to say, 'well, he only got 3% so he's done.' We already know that will happen. And it won't have an effect on what very independent NHites are thinking. When it comes to big Feb 3 and beyond, the NH results will have a bigger momentum effect than Iowa will. Iowa was never going to make or break Clark...Iowa is Gep's stand, thst's why it was a shrewd decision to bypass it.

Bottom line if Dean wins Iowa and Clarkes strong 2nd in NH then we have a 2-man race.

WildBill · Jan 8, 2004

I think you all are far overdoing it with these first two decisions. These are spots to merely get your name out there and raise a little money if you are behind. Dean and Clark have no troubles with the money. Gephardt is not going to win, he can talk all he wants but he has no way of winning people with populist talk and farmland values. Kerry is done, I think there is nothing he could do to catch fire now because the top two already culled off a lot of his target voters. The race is two man right now, the establishment guy is going to be Clark, the populist guy is Dean...and only maybe Lieberman could come out and make some noise before it is done. Edwards is out campaigning for Vice President and the others are just out trying to earn some crumbs. All this posturing for the first two states makes little difference now because money is the key to winning and both of these guys got plenty of it to survive the whole way until convention time.

D2bets · Jan 9, 2004

The NH momentum conitues. Today's daily ARG tracking numbers:
Dean 35
Clark 20
Kerry 11
Lieberman 8
Gephardt 5

Clark has picked up exactly 2% in each of the past 4 days' of this tracking poll -- from 12 to 20% and where Dean led Clark by 27 points just 5 days' ago he now leads by just 15, Clark may just be in the lead in another week.

The tide has turned and Dean's camp is truly scared which is underscored by reports out today that the Dean camp is calling seniors telling them that they can't vote unless they re-register as Dems -- unless they're voting for Dean. If true, this is a dirty trick worthy of Karl Rove's admiration.

Over a Tradesports, Dean is don to 65, Clark has risen to 27 and Gephardt is at 5. Clark has risen from 18.5 to 27 in the last 2 days.

[This message was edited by D2bets on January 09, 2004 at 12:46 PM.]

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