Belmont Official Payoffs.

11th race - Belmont Park - June 05, 2004
Pgm Horse Win Place Show
4 Birdstone 74.00 14.00 8.60
9 Smarty Jones 3.30 2.60
6 Royal Assault 6.10


$2 Daily Double 5-4 526.00
$2 Daily Double 5-4 (ACORN/BELMONT) 466.00
$2 Exacta 4-9 139.00
$2 Superfecta 4-9-6-8 11,679.00
$2 Trifecta 4-9-6 1,589.00
$2 Pick 3 3-5-4 (3 correct) 2,910.00
$2 Pick 4 1-3-5-4 (4 correct) 7,309.00
$2 Pick 6 4-3-1-3-5-4 (5 correct) 146.00
$2 Pick 6 4-3-1-3-5-4 (6 correct) 47,421.00

Thats about 3 days, lots of drinks, lots of food, and lots of fun before getting home with about a nickel.

Full Chart Results:


Belmont Park - June 5th, 2004 - Race 11
Race name: Belmont S. Grade: 1
Stakes - For Thoroughbred Three Year Old One And One Half Miles On The Dirt
Purse: $1,000,000
Value of Race: $1,000,000 1st $600,000, 2nd $200,000, 3rd $110,000, 4th $60,000, 5th $30,000
Weather: Cloudy Track: Fast
Off at: 6:48 Start: Good for all

Pgm HorseName (Jockey) Wgt M/E PP 1/4 1/2 1m 1 1/4 Str Fin Odds
4 Birdstone (Prado, E.S.) 126 L c 4 7-1 1/2 5-1/2 4-6 2-1 1/2 2-6 1-1 36.00
9 Smarty Jones (Elliott, S.) 126 L f 9 3-1/2 3-1/2 1-1/2 1-3 1/2 1-1 1/2 2-8 0.35*
6 Royal Assault (Day, P.) 126 L c 6 6-Head 6-1 1/2 6-1 5-2 5-10 3-3 27.75
8 Eddington (Bailey, J.D.) 126 L b 8 5-Head 4-1 1/2 3-3 1/2 4-8 4-6 4-Nose 14.20
5 Rock Hard Ten (Solis, A.O.) 126 L 5 2-1/2 2-1 2-1 3-2 3-2 1/2 5-14 6.70
7 Tap Dancer (Castellano, J.) 126 L f 7 9 9 8-10 7-1/2 6-Head 6-4 1/4 40.50
1 Master David (Santos, J.A.) 126 L f 1 8-1 8-Head 7-Head 6-Head 7-8 7-1 24.50
3 Caiman (Dominguez, R.A.) 126 L 3 4-Head 7-Head 9 9 9 8-6 1/4 49.75
2 Purge (Velazquez, J.R.) 126 L 2 1-1/2 1-Head 5-6 8-6 8-2 9 9.60
Fractional Times: 24.33, 48.65, 1:11.76, 1:35.44, 2:00.52, 2:27.50

Winner: Birdstone - Bay Colt, May 16, 2001
Bred by Marylou Whitney Stables in KY
Pedigree: Grindstone - Dear Birdie , by Storm Bird


Pgm Horse Win Place Show Total WPS Pool: $23,355,741
4 Birdstone 74.00 14.00 8.60
9 Smarty Jones 3.30 2.60
6 Royal Assault 6.10


Wager Type Winning Numbers Payoff Pool Carryover
$2 Pick 3 3-5-4 (3 correct) 2,910.00 454,107
$2 Pick 4 1-3-5-4 (4 correct) 7,309.00 1,739,609
$2 Pick 6 4-3-1-3-5-4 (5 correct) 146.00 0
$2 Pick 6 4-3-1-3-5-4 (6 correct) 47,421.00 1,487,744
$2 Daily Double 5-4 526.00 446,089
$2 Daily Double 5-4 (ACORN/BELMONT) 466.00 441,507
$2 Exacta 4-9 139.00 13,047,212
$2 Superfecta 4-9-6-8 11,679.00 6,470,512
$2 Trifecta 4-9-6 1,589.00 17,922,977

Pgm Comment
4 Birdstone: in hand between rivals, 4 wide move second turn, clear late
9 Smarty Jones: speed 4 wide, argued pace, drew clear second turn, game inside
6 Royal Assault: bothered start, in hand early, 3 wide second turn, no rally
8 Eddington: speed 5 wide, chased outside, tired second turn
5 Rock Hard Ten: speed between rivals, argued pace, finished after one mile
7 Tap Dancer: 3 wide first turn, 4 wide second turn, no response when roused
1 Master David: steadied inside first turn, taken back, empty
3 Caiman: brief speed inside, retreated
2 Purge: speed inside, argued pace, finished early
Footnotes
BIRDSTONE was unhurried while between horses on the first turn, swung out entering the backstretch, settled in the middle of the pack while racing five wide along the backstretch, took up chase after the winner from outside on the far turn, moved around EDDINGTON while gaining ground midway on the turn, circled five wide while launching his bid at the top of the stretch, drifted out in upper stretch, straightened his course when struck right handed nearing the furlong marker, closed steadily under steady right hand encouragement a sixteenth out then wore down SMARTY JONES in the final seventy yards. SMARTY JONES moved up from outside to contest the early pace, pressed the pace while four wide entering the backstretch, surged to the front just after going a half mile, battled heads apart while continuing wide to the far turn, shook off ROCK HARD TEN to get clear leaving the three-eighths pole, extended his lead approaching the quarter pole, drifted out when struck left handed with the whip in upper stretch and again nearing the eighth pole, maintained a clear lead inside the furlong marker, fought gamely into deep stretch then yielded grudgingly while weakening in the late stages. ROYAL ASSAULT checked in tight while being bothered by ROCK HARD TEN at the start, raced well back through the opening half mile, moved up a bit between horses along the backstretch, launched a mild rally three wide on the turn then failed to threaten while improving his position in the stretch. EDDINGTON was hustled up from outside in the early stages, stalked the pace while five wide along the backstretch, raced just outside SMARTY JONES leaving the far turn, dropped back a bit leaving the three-eighths pole then steadily tired thereafter. ROCK HARD TEN fractious behind the gate at the start, broke outward causing crowding leaving the gate, moved up between horses on the first turn, pressed the pace inside SMARTY JONES along the backstretch, made a run along the inside to threaten on the far turn, forced the issue to the turn then tired from his early efforts. TAP DANCER never reached contention while five wide throughout. MASTER DAVID steadied along the inside on the first turn, lagged behind between horses entering the backstretch then failed to mount a serious rally while four wide throughout. CAIMAN showed brief speed along the inside, saved ground along the backstretch and faded before going a mile. PURGE rushed up while rank in the early stages, set the pace along the rail for nearly a half, dropped back on the far turn and steadily tired thereafter.


Owners: 4 - Marylou Whitney Stables, 9 - Someday Farm, 6 -Tracy Farmer, 8 - Willmott Stables, Inc., 5 - Mercedes Stables, Paulson, Madeleine, A., 7 -Gilbert G. Campbell, 1 - Georgica Stable, Mack, Stephen and Star Crown Stable, 3 - Achar, Victor, 2 - Starlight Stables LLC, Saylor, Paul and Martin, Johns
Trainers: 4 -Nicholas P. Zito, 9 -John C. Servis, 6 -Nicholas P. Zito, 8 -Mark A. Hennig, 5 -Jason R. Orman, 7 -Edward T. Allard, 1 -Robert J. Frankel, 3 -Angel M. Medina, 2 -Todd A. Pletcher

So Smarty Jones paid more to place, than he would have to win, right ?

Doug it is hard to say had SJ won he would not have paid $3.60 to place. Had he won he would have paid $2.70 to win and maybe $2.30 or 2.40 to place. At least that is how I understand the pari-mutual payoffs.


wil.

I believe if Smarty won, and Birdstone places, the place pay-offs would not change, If Smarty won, and another horse placed, then different, but I think the place would exceed the win price, with most finishes, but horses aren't my game.

Doug

After furthur thought thought, I feel I'm 100 % correct on the place prices being exactly the same, if the exacta were reversed, but wrong if a lower odds horse than Birdstone came into one of the top 2 spots. However the win and place prices might have been very, very close, depending on the horse that finished with SJ.

I didn't bet the race, at all ! Surely someone here has the numbers on the pools, and the curiosity to figure it out. The point I'm trying to make is that place may have been better than win here. I don't hardly ever touch horses, or boxing.

I understand very well how pari-mutual pools are distributed. My experiences date from jai-alai in the 1970's, very small pools on W-P-S. You would turn a 20:1 longshot into a 4:1 favorite with a $20 bet at post, really ! I know this race is different ! I've seen jai-alai games with no ticket sold on the winner !

The money there goes to trifectas, and only like 4-10 k pool, followed by quinellas, then Exactas ( not unusual for a consolation Exacta... maybe once every couple hundred of games ). I've seen no show money on a team (there's only 8 teams ) many times !

Pari-mutual betting sucks. I've seen jai-alai teams go off 1:9 ( 3:1 should be lowest ever ). All it takes is one $500 bet from somebody that thinks jai-alai is the Kentucky Derby. I've seen a winner pay like $3 to win, $12.80 to place, and $40 to show !

It's a great game to watch, I used to play, but not on a pro level, came fairly close !

It's dead now, with only a few frontons left in USA, all in Fla. ,except for Newport, RI.

That's my introduction to "gaming"

Dogs (esp.) and horses are dead too. They can't survive !

Doug

The place payoff would have been the same. The win pool has nothing to do with the place pool so it doesnt matter whether a horse is first or second the place payoff is the same.

OK, Apollo, we agree sort-of, at least with Smarty and Bird finishing 1-2, but prices would be different on SJ to place, with a different horse in the exacta, more place money distributed to a Rock Hard 10, Eddington, or Purge, reducing Smarty's place price.

My original point is SJ, may have payed nearly as much to finish 2nd (or more ), instead of 1st, in many scenarios, thus making SJ to win inferior to a place bet, but again I'm not a horse guy, it's theoretical for me.

Re-statement of original idea :

It's all in hindsight, and past-post...

I already stated , no bets were made.

If you insisted on betting SJ, or any HUGE favorite in a horse race, would you do better betting the place, or even show, instead of the win ? If you don't get much bang for your buck, on a win, with an odds on favorite, then why not go even for place, or show, you may just get more !, with less risk !

I'm done with this discussion. I hope ! It's not my bag ! Just my thoughts !

Doug

you guys are right...the wps pools are separate pools...the top 2 finishers split the place pool, irrespective of what order they come in...and the top 3 finishers split the show pool, irrespective of the order of finish...

DougJ...you final post summed it up the right way.

Before the race, I heard several people say (on radio and at the books) that the place or show would be better bet because of all the public/square/souvenir money in the win pool. Your point is well taken in the place pool, and the show price ($2.60) was nearly what he would have paid to win, again assuming Birdstone and Royal Assault were also in the money. If Eddington had gotten up for third, then that price would have dropped and even further more if Purge or Rock Hard Ten were in the money, too.

The thing is that most people that are of the mindset that Smarty Jones was a sure thing probably didn't give the longshots any chance, and thus the discrepancies in the prices wouldn't have been as great if it fell that way.