How I will play the Belmont

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While I don't necessarily buy that a horse less than even money isn't bettable, I think a better option is presenting itself. I bet Smarty Jones to win by 4 lengths or more -102. In a long race on a potentially slower track I have to think if he gets a clean trip to the lead he will pull away easily. Just look at the history of this race, it isn't filled with too many close finishes. The marathon distance encourages one horse to get in front and pull away as most horses don't have enough gas to make a late charge to make it close. Add in the potential for some mud and the front runner has that much more working for him. In any case I think Smarty Jones will either get a nice trip at a nice pace and win easily, or will have some things go against him and then not be able to have enough to last the mile and a half and lose outright. I can't see him dueling another horse and pulling out a close win.
 

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WB - if pressed I am inclined to go for the higher payback of +251 for an 8 length win for much the same reasons you mention.

BOL. wil.
 

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