Combining props at different books...

postaldoug · May 30, 2004

Does anybody else do this ? Of course , yes ! We just don't talk about it.

With some hunting, many great correlated bets (props ) exist. They just can't be posted, for everyone.

I exchange a few privately with contacts, I've made over the years.

I feel bad, I provide no picks, I take from guys like Frog, but don't give back. Posting picks can bite you, hard.Look at Co-Captain, he's always defending himself, I don't follow anyone here, but OF did influence me, I didn't want to be opposite him, or a guy like Fezzik. However I will bet against these guys, if I find the right spot. They would sway me to a lesser stand, perhaps, but not eliminate my take on the bet. It's best to find your own stuff.Publishing it is a different story.I don't give my "A+" stuff to anyone.

I'll give my "A" stuff to about 5 people, that exchange with me. That's just the way it is !

Doug

wilheim · May 30, 2004

Not sure what you mean by combining props. Do you mean parlaying? Anyway don't feel bad about not posting picks - a lot of posters add much by just enhancing the debates in the various forums. Feel free to follow those cappers you are comfortable with, and jump into threads when you care to. In other words use the forum to become a sharper player in your own way.

Thanks, wil.

BAUS · May 30, 2004

Do you mean middling on props?

BAUS

postaldoug · May 30, 2004

All Right ... I'll give an example... This is an "A" play, happens to come from mostly Pinny, but could come from 3 different shops...

All 1st half of Sat LAL/Minn game... You guys will forget this one by next year !

Will LAL lead by >.5 <8.5 yes +185

Will LAL lead by > .5.5 yes +215

Minn +1 -110

bet 1 unit on first 2 props, bet 2.2 units, to win 2 on last one, do the math. Hint Lakers by 1,6,7,8 points all good, max loss is .35 units. I won't spell it out furthur than that.

Doug

picasso · May 30, 2004

Unless I'm missing something here, one loses -1.35 units if the Lakers lead by 2, 3, 4, or 5 points. One would lose -1.05 units if the Lakers lead by 9 or more points.

postaldoug · May 30, 2004

Picasso : If Lakers lead BY 2-5 points assume $100 unit, you collect $185, in winnings, lose $220 on Minn. (-$35 net) If LA wins half by 9+, you collect $215 in winnings ,lose $5 net. LAL by 1,6,7,8 are good results. Do the math. I'm twice as strong on Minny +1.

Where's Fezz ?

postaldoug · May 30, 2004

Picasso : It's tricky, but your numbers are off !

Mods: Can you get Fezz into this ?

Doug

picasso · May 30, 2004

If the Lakers lead by 2-5, you win $185 on the first prop, lose $100 on the second prop, and lose $220 on the Min +1 play. Combined loss is $135.

If the Lakers lead by 9+, you win $215 on the second prop, lose $100 on the first prop, and lose $220 on the Min +1 play. Combined loss is $105.

postaldoug · May 30, 2004

Picasso: I hate to admit I'm wrong, but I am. I thank you for directing me to my error, in a proffessional manner, you are a classy guy.

My my revised calculations :

LAL:

+1 = +85

+2-5 = -135

6-8 = +180

9 + -105

Minn win =even

I don't know what to say. but I'm wrong ! I ran this by people, I respect greatly, none caught the error. I'm humbled, yet educated !

I can only thank you, I'm big enough to admit an error. What more can I say ?

Doug

randyrohm · May 30, 2004

Doug I have made errors of a similer nature that cost me plenty. I have made numerous combination bets combining multiple books with mixed results. The one I had some success with during reg season NBA was combining Q and half bets from different books hoping to catch a side or a middle, of course you can get polished middled. Other combos are points, rebounds and assist props offered at dif #'s and dif variety at the dif books. What you are trying to do would work. I work alone and this is very time consuming and prone to oversight. With a team would work much better, ie I might only have to shop props for action on Ben Wallace, much easier than shopping the board.