http://forum.therx.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=988094022&m=949104441
Shrink recently started this thread, which will have made many RX posters pat themselves on their chest knowing that they are wise guys now. I will be very honest. I started this part two thread, because (not trying to become personal, but) I cannot stand reading the wise guy's sh*t anymore.
Two days ago I got this phone call from a good friend that lives on one of the Indonesian remote islands. He is not a wise guy! He is a real position taker! He never middles, scalps or shops lines, etc. He is into straight betting. He mainly bets on the European football. The only thing that makes him not being a complete fool is that he is price sensitive.
So two days ago he phoned me and made me aware of the fact that here in Macau today's football match between Norway and Wales was already open for betting. It was Norway to win -125. Like a real gentleman he told me that Norway will have its best team on the field and Wales is loaded with injuries. Yes, he does his homework, so he wanted me to put a nice figure on Norway. I had done none of my own homework yet and was not in a mood to take a position against him, so I phoned one of the locals and explained the situation. I laid it all off kind of knowing that the price on Norway was not likely to move in my favour. (More people do the same homework). So now comes the next question: When does the line move in one's favour?
I bet 90% of the RX posters will say: "Well, if the price on Norway gets less attractive, then one has done a good job!" They will then indeed say: "The line has moved in my favour!" Norway now is close to -1 goal (-3/4 -125), which is a huge move on the European football. Regardless of the result (and remember that is the only one that really counts) these same posters will celebrate a win. Some of the cowards will start betting on Wales to make it close to a sure win.
An hour ago this same guy from the remote island phoned me again. Before he could say anything I already knew that this was not going to be a pleasant telephone conversation. Why? Well the line has not moved in his favour! Remember the guy is price sensitive and will never middle or scalp (simply think of betting on the other side). I had to tell him that if he would bet more on Norway, he would only win half, if they would win with a one goal difference, so with a very sad voice he said: "I should have bet more two days ago", so he is not happy now. He would have been happy, if Norway had become -1/4.
Now my problem:
If even more money comes in on Norway and they become -1, then I want to start betting on Wales. Can I then phone this same local and say: "Well my friend liked Norway, but I now like Wales?" He will not believe me and simply thinks that I am middling. I am not!
Shrink recently started this thread, which will have made many RX posters pat themselves on their chest knowing that they are wise guys now. I will be very honest. I started this part two thread, because (not trying to become personal, but) I cannot stand reading the wise guy's sh*t anymore.
Two days ago I got this phone call from a good friend that lives on one of the Indonesian remote islands. He is not a wise guy! He is a real position taker! He never middles, scalps or shops lines, etc. He is into straight betting. He mainly bets on the European football. The only thing that makes him not being a complete fool is that he is price sensitive.
So two days ago he phoned me and made me aware of the fact that here in Macau today's football match between Norway and Wales was already open for betting. It was Norway to win -125. Like a real gentleman he told me that Norway will have its best team on the field and Wales is loaded with injuries. Yes, he does his homework, so he wanted me to put a nice figure on Norway. I had done none of my own homework yet and was not in a mood to take a position against him, so I phoned one of the locals and explained the situation. I laid it all off kind of knowing that the price on Norway was not likely to move in my favour. (More people do the same homework). So now comes the next question: When does the line move in one's favour?
I bet 90% of the RX posters will say: "Well, if the price on Norway gets less attractive, then one has done a good job!" They will then indeed say: "The line has moved in my favour!" Norway now is close to -1 goal (-3/4 -125), which is a huge move on the European football. Regardless of the result (and remember that is the only one that really counts) these same posters will celebrate a win. Some of the cowards will start betting on Wales to make it close to a sure win.
An hour ago this same guy from the remote island phoned me again. Before he could say anything I already knew that this was not going to be a pleasant telephone conversation. Why? Well the line has not moved in his favour! Remember the guy is price sensitive and will never middle or scalp (simply think of betting on the other side). I had to tell him that if he would bet more on Norway, he would only win half, if they would win with a one goal difference, so with a very sad voice he said: "I should have bet more two days ago", so he is not happy now. He would have been happy, if Norway had become -1/4.
Now my problem:
If even more money comes in on Norway and they become -1, then I want to start betting on Wales. Can I then phone this same local and say: "Well my friend liked Norway, but I now like Wales?" He will not believe me and simply thinks that I am middling. I am not!
