So, what criteria are used to set the initial Las Vegas sports betting lines? A few points:
The initial analysis is usually statistical. Predictions about the future are made by examining what has happened in the past. The oddsmaker wants to know the history of the teams and players.
The oddsmaker will use past statistics to asses the strengths and weaknesses of the teams and players. For example, is there a strong offense but perhaps a weak defense? He will look for patterns and trends in the statistics. Does the team or player seem to win more consistently at home or away? Perhaps the team wins more consistently playing in cold weather. Maybe they play well under pressure and tend to win more often after a loss or in playoff situations. Any statistical pattern has value - it is the oddsmaker's job to determine how much value.
The oddsmaker will also attempt to match up the statistics of the opposing teams and players for a particular game or event. He wants to know how those players and teams have done in the past when they have played each other.
He may also look at how the players and teams have done against similar but different opponents. Using the example of an American football game, if the Dallas Cowboys are playing a team with a strong offense, the oddsmaker may look at how the Cowboys have done playing other teams with a similarly strong offense.
The oddsmaker will incorporate an assessment of any current factors that may affect the play. Do any players have injuries that could impact the outcome? Are there any outside issues that may distract players and affect their performance? Anything that could possibly influence the outcome of the game or event needs to be considered.
Finally, one cannot underestimate the "gut" feeling of the oddsmaker. The intuition that comes from years of experience - that almost unconscious ability to assimilate facts and have a "feel" for the outcome of a game or event. This carries a lot of weight in determining the final sports betting line.
wil.
The initial analysis is usually statistical. Predictions about the future are made by examining what has happened in the past. The oddsmaker wants to know the history of the teams and players.
The oddsmaker will use past statistics to asses the strengths and weaknesses of the teams and players. For example, is there a strong offense but perhaps a weak defense? He will look for patterns and trends in the statistics. Does the team or player seem to win more consistently at home or away? Perhaps the team wins more consistently playing in cold weather. Maybe they play well under pressure and tend to win more often after a loss or in playoff situations. Any statistical pattern has value - it is the oddsmaker's job to determine how much value.
The oddsmaker will also attempt to match up the statistics of the opposing teams and players for a particular game or event. He wants to know how those players and teams have done in the past when they have played each other.
He may also look at how the players and teams have done against similar but different opponents. Using the example of an American football game, if the Dallas Cowboys are playing a team with a strong offense, the oddsmaker may look at how the Cowboys have done playing other teams with a similarly strong offense.
The oddsmaker will incorporate an assessment of any current factors that may affect the play. Do any players have injuries that could impact the outcome? Are there any outside issues that may distract players and affect their performance? Anything that could possibly influence the outcome of the game or event needs to be considered.
Finally, one cannot underestimate the "gut" feeling of the oddsmaker. The intuition that comes from years of experience - that almost unconscious ability to assimilate facts and have a "feel" for the outcome of a game or event. This carries a lot of weight in determining the final sports betting line.
wil.
