The fastest internal fractions out of the derby were run by imperialism(3rd) and action this day(6th). Having said that it may not matter at pimlico. Having no idea how the track will play,but it would be a real reach for a dead closer to win the preakness. I can easily see the same exacta as the derby, Would have to box it though because LH might hold alittle better. Now having said all this its not relevant until you see what the track is doing on saturday!!
Preakness field breakdown by ESPN's Ed McNamara:
SMARTY JONES
It's kind of tough to knock a colt that's 7-for-7 and just dominated the Kentucky Derby. But if you didn't have him at 4-1 in Louisville, why hop on the bandwagon now and accept 8-5 or lower in Baltimore? The people's horse has run three consecutive career tops, and sooner or later he'll regress. As his trainer, John Servis, told the Daily Racing Form: "Horses are not machines. He's going to tail off eventually. When? I can't tell you." If he wins and goes for the Triple Crown, a great saga will roll on. I won't be betting on him, though, unless he's 5-2 or better, which is most unlikely.
LION HEART
Top-class front-runner will be gunning from the gate again. I think the sloppy, speed-favoring track on Derby Day carried this brilliant colt a bit farther than he wants to go, and I don't think he's a 1?-mile animal. He should get pressure up front this time, and I wonder how he'll handle it. Could be the underlay of the race, but he should lead at least until the top of the stretch. Never been worse than second, and that record may be in jeopardy.
IMPERIALISM
Kristin Mulhall has done a terrific job with this overachiever, who clunked up late to be a non-threatening third in the Derby. Did he stay the distance or just dislike the off track less than those behind him? Since he has three in-the-money finishes in five starts on wet tracks, I think the surface had more to do with his completing the trifecta. Originally was going to skip the Preakness, but Mulhall persuaded owner Steve Taub to go. He's winless beyond a mile on fast tracks, and I think he'll be an underlay that finishes off the board.
BORREGO
Plodder is 0-for-4 in graded stakes and looks like the type who could slip into the triple or maybe even the exacta if the pace is hot and he gets a dream trip. Had no chance coming from far back at Churchill, and he's better than what he showed. If he's 12-1 or more, he's worth using in exotics, but I'd be amazed if he won the Preakness.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
The excuse horse of the Derby, this deep closer lost two front shoes, had traffic trouble and still managed to run fifth. Will he be overbet or ignored? If he's 5-1 or so, he may offer value. Unfortunately, the wise guys may gravitate toward him and make his odds lower than I'd want to take. On a fast track with a contested, fast pace to run at, he could win. He was the morning-line Derby favorite off his very impressive Blue Grass win, and a major bounce-back would be no surprise.
EDDINGTON
If he'd gotten into the Derby, I was going to pick him, but his low graded-stakes earnings kept him out. Maybe missing the race was the best thing that could have happened to him. He's been working very well at Belmont Park and he has the pedigree to love the 1 3/16-mile distance. He's never been out of the money but is 0-for-2 in graded stakes and has run erratically at times. Negative: With Jerry Bailey riding, he may get more action than he should. At 6-1 or better, I'll be interested in betting him, and he belongs in your exotics.
ROCK HARD TEN
You could hang out in paddocks for the next 10 years and never see a more impressive physical specimen than this colt. If they did a movie about Pegasus, the winged horse of Greek mythology, this mega-stud would be the model. He's been a buzz horse in California since before his career debut Feb. 7, and he hasn't done much wrong. Unfortunately, he's run only three times and almost certainly will get more play than he should. Like Eddington, he didn't get into the Derby because of a problem with graded-stakes earnings, which undoubtedly was a blessing. I expect big things from him down the road, but weigh his price at Pimlico with the risk/reward angle.
WATER CANNON
Every year a few locally based horses with no credentials pop up in the Preakness, and this no-hoper comes straight from central casting. Trained by Maryland regular Linda Albert, he needed seven starts to break his maiden against lousy fields. He won a very weak 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio Stakes last month at Pimlico, so here he is. Doesn't belong with the best of his generation, and I hope he doesn't get in anyone's way and compromise a contender's chances. No figures and no chance.
LITTLE MATTH MAN
Deep closer ran seventh in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct after plunking up for third in the quirky Lane's End at Turfway. He's in way over his head here, with one win in 10 tries on fast tracks. Would need lots of rain to have any chance to finish in the top half of the field. I hope he stays home.
PREACHINATTHEBAR
Bob Baffert pulled him out of the Derby because he wasn't showing enough in his workouts at Churchill. Stalker has enough tactical speed to be near the pace but shouldn't concern you if you like Lion Heart. He's only 1-for-4 in stakes and can't be considered a serious threat in top company. Even Baffert's Triple Crown wizardry won't help this one.
SIR SHACKLETON
If Nick Zito enters this speedy winner of the mile Derby Trial, it will be as a rabbit for stablemate The Cliff's Edge. He has enough early foot to put heat on Lion Heart and might affect the pace dynamic, but he can't win.
Typically, the Preakness winner makes its move from just off the pace or from midpack and raced in the Kentucky Derby. In the past 20 runnings, only one winner (Louis Quatorze, 1996) went wire to wire, and only one had skipped the Derby (Red Bullet, 2000).
Since 1984, here's the profile of the horses that won the big one at Pimlico: Derby winner: 7 Beaten Derby favorite: 5 Third or worse in Derby, and not the Derby favorite: 7 Skipped the Derby: 1 Here's an obvious angle that has worked in five of the past 20 Preaknesses, though not since 1998: Box the Derby exacta at Pimlico. Of course, no self-respecting wise guy will tout a box of Smarty Jones and Lion Heart this Saturday, but it might be a wise saver play. Here's my horse-by-horse analysis of the Preakness.
Info in other Preakness thread.
http://forum.therx.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=988094022&m=630103041
wil.
SMARTY JONES
It's kind of tough to knock a colt that's 7-for-7 and just dominated the Kentucky Derby. But if you didn't have him at 4-1 in Louisville, why hop on the bandwagon now and accept 8-5 or lower in Baltimore? The people's horse has run three consecutive career tops, and sooner or later he'll regress. As his trainer, John Servis, told the Daily Racing Form: "Horses are not machines. He's going to tail off eventually. When? I can't tell you." If he wins and goes for the Triple Crown, a great saga will roll on. I won't be betting on him, though, unless he's 5-2 or better, which is most unlikely.
LION HEART
Top-class front-runner will be gunning from the gate again. I think the sloppy, speed-favoring track on Derby Day carried this brilliant colt a bit farther than he wants to go, and I don't think he's a 1?-mile animal. He should get pressure up front this time, and I wonder how he'll handle it. Could be the underlay of the race, but he should lead at least until the top of the stretch. Never been worse than second, and that record may be in jeopardy.
IMPERIALISM
Kristin Mulhall has done a terrific job with this overachiever, who clunked up late to be a non-threatening third in the Derby. Did he stay the distance or just dislike the off track less than those behind him? Since he has three in-the-money finishes in five starts on wet tracks, I think the surface had more to do with his completing the trifecta. Originally was going to skip the Preakness, but Mulhall persuaded owner Steve Taub to go. He's winless beyond a mile on fast tracks, and I think he'll be an underlay that finishes off the board.
BORREGO
Plodder is 0-for-4 in graded stakes and looks like the type who could slip into the triple or maybe even the exacta if the pace is hot and he gets a dream trip. Had no chance coming from far back at Churchill, and he's better than what he showed. If he's 12-1 or more, he's worth using in exotics, but I'd be amazed if he won the Preakness.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
The excuse horse of the Derby, this deep closer lost two front shoes, had traffic trouble and still managed to run fifth. Will he be overbet or ignored? If he's 5-1 or so, he may offer value. Unfortunately, the wise guys may gravitate toward him and make his odds lower than I'd want to take. On a fast track with a contested, fast pace to run at, he could win. He was the morning-line Derby favorite off his very impressive Blue Grass win, and a major bounce-back would be no surprise.
EDDINGTON
If he'd gotten into the Derby, I was going to pick him, but his low graded-stakes earnings kept him out. Maybe missing the race was the best thing that could have happened to him. He's been working very well at Belmont Park and he has the pedigree to love the 1 3/16-mile distance. He's never been out of the money but is 0-for-2 in graded stakes and has run erratically at times. Negative: With Jerry Bailey riding, he may get more action than he should. At 6-1 or better, I'll be interested in betting him, and he belongs in your exotics.
ROCK HARD TEN
You could hang out in paddocks for the next 10 years and never see a more impressive physical specimen than this colt. If they did a movie about Pegasus, the winged horse of Greek mythology, this mega-stud would be the model. He's been a buzz horse in California since before his career debut Feb. 7, and he hasn't done much wrong. Unfortunately, he's run only three times and almost certainly will get more play than he should. Like Eddington, he didn't get into the Derby because of a problem with graded-stakes earnings, which undoubtedly was a blessing. I expect big things from him down the road, but weigh his price at Pimlico with the risk/reward angle.
WATER CANNON
Every year a few locally based horses with no credentials pop up in the Preakness, and this no-hoper comes straight from central casting. Trained by Maryland regular Linda Albert, he needed seven starts to break his maiden against lousy fields. He won a very weak 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio Stakes last month at Pimlico, so here he is. Doesn't belong with the best of his generation, and I hope he doesn't get in anyone's way and compromise a contender's chances. No figures and no chance.
LITTLE MATTH MAN
Deep closer ran seventh in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct after plunking up for third in the quirky Lane's End at Turfway. He's in way over his head here, with one win in 10 tries on fast tracks. Would need lots of rain to have any chance to finish in the top half of the field. I hope he stays home.
PREACHINATTHEBAR
Bob Baffert pulled him out of the Derby because he wasn't showing enough in his workouts at Churchill. Stalker has enough tactical speed to be near the pace but shouldn't concern you if you like Lion Heart. He's only 1-for-4 in stakes and can't be considered a serious threat in top company. Even Baffert's Triple Crown wizardry won't help this one.
SIR SHACKLETON
If Nick Zito enters this speedy winner of the mile Derby Trial, it will be as a rabbit for stablemate The Cliff's Edge. He has enough early foot to put heat on Lion Heart and might affect the pace dynamic, but he can't win.
Typically, the Preakness winner makes its move from just off the pace or from midpack and raced in the Kentucky Derby. In the past 20 runnings, only one winner (Louis Quatorze, 1996) went wire to wire, and only one had skipped the Derby (Red Bullet, 2000).
Since 1984, here's the profile of the horses that won the big one at Pimlico: Derby winner: 7 Beaten Derby favorite: 5 Third or worse in Derby, and not the Derby favorite: 7 Skipped the Derby: 1 Here's an obvious angle that has worked in five of the past 20 Preaknesses, though not since 1998: Box the Derby exacta at Pimlico. Of course, no self-respecting wise guy will tout a box of Smarty Jones and Lion Heart this Saturday, but it might be a wise saver play. Here's my horse-by-horse analysis of the Preakness.
Info in other Preakness thread.
http://forum.therx.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=988094022&m=630103041
wil.
Gonna be a hard race to make money at.Odds on Lion Heart and Smarty Jones are gonna be very short.May be a couple of rabbits entered that may hamper these 2 a little.Waiting to see the final field,but taking a long look at Rock Hard Ten.Why?The name reminds me of my penis.Actually a very talented horse.Wish he would have run in The Derby Trial.Would like to see another race under his belt.Also was interested in Cliff's Edge,but apparently is having foot problems.After today's draw,I should have a clearer picture and will post.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Waiting to see the final field,but taking a long look at Rock Hard Ten.Why?The name reminds me of my penis. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
LOL Judge!!! RHT is a huge long striding colt that in my opinion may have problems with this course...Having said that that I also missed the Derby winner by 15+ lengths...so I am sure you will set me straight on this one and I will be appreciative.... Best of luck with your choice.
LOL Judge!!! RHT is a huge long striding colt that in my opinion may have problems with this course...Having said that that I also missed the Derby winner by 15+ lengths...so I am sure you will set me straight on this one and I will be appreciative.... Best of luck with your choice.
BALTIMORE (AP) Kristin Mulhall wasn't all that excited about bringing Imperialism across the country to take on Smarty Jones again in the Preakness Stakes.
After Imperialism finished third behind Smarty in the Kentucky Derby, the plan was to return home to Hollywood Park and get ready for another run at the undefeated colt in the Belmont Stakes on June 5.
So much for planning. Imperialism was training great. Derby replays showed that the gutty gray colt had a tough trip. And owner Steve Taub and jockey Kent Desormeaux convinced the 21-year-old trainer her horse has a chance to win the 1 3-16th-mile Preakness on Saturday.
''Every professional athlete in history that I know has been beaten except Rocky Marciano,'' Taub said Wednesday outside Imperialism's barn at Pimlico. ''Secretariat lost. Man o' War lost. Seattle Slew lost.''
When it comes to Smarty Jones, though, Mulhall isn't so sure defeat is imminent.
Imperialism was strong at the end of the 1¼-mile Derby after being clipped by a horse on the first turn and slowed by another along the backstretch.
He finished six lengths behind the winner, but even if Imperialism's patented closing kick moved him close to the leader, Smarty Jones ''had another gear and would have taken off again,'' Mulhall said.
Smarty Jones ''looks like a really nice horse, and we're shortening up in distance,'' she said. ''So I don't know. We'll see what he's made of.''
A field of 11 3-year-olds was entered Wednesday, including Derby runner-up Lion Heart. The Cliff's Edge (fifth), Borrego (10th) and Song of the Sword (11th) are other Derby runners back for another shot.
Eddington and Rock Hard Ten, colts who missed the Derby because they didn't have enough graded-stakes earnings, top the new challengers. Eddington was third in the Wood Memorial; Rock Hard Ten finished second in the Santa Anita Derby but was disqualified to third for interference.
The newcomers are Derby Trial winner Sir Shackleton, Tesio Stakes winner Water Cannon, and Little Matth Man, another Philly Park-based colt who finished seventh in the Wood.
Smarty Jones opened as the 8-5 morning-line favorite, with Lion Heart at 3-1, and Imperialism at 5-1. Rock Hard Ten was 6-1, The Cliff's Edge 8-1, Borrego 15-1 and Sir Shackleton, Song of the Sword, Water Cannon and Little Matth Man all 30-1.
The post position draw was later Wednesday.
Mulhall isn't the only rival trainer impressed with Smarty Jones.
Patrick Biancone, who handles Lion Heart, watched Smarty Jones train at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky., the week before the Derby.
''He's exceptional,'' Biancone said. ''I think it showed in the Derby. There's no question he's a champion.''
Nick Zito didn't sound optimistic, either, especially after The Cliff's Edge developed a sore right front foot after a Wednesday morning jog. The trainer said he'll decide Thursday whether the colt will run. Zito also trains Sir Shackleton.
''The only things you think about is stay the course, do what you're supposed to do here, and hopefully they both come with their good races,'' Zito said. ''This Smarty Jones, I think he's a very good horse.''
Smarty Jones arrived by van from Philly Park on Wednesday after a 10-day lovefest. One day, 5,000 fans showed up to watch Smarty gallop.
On Monday, Oaklawn Park owner Charles Cella presented the colt's owners with a $5 million bonus check for Smarty's sweep of the Rebel Stakes, Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby. Another $5 million bonus is on the line if Smarty Jones wins the Preakness and Belmont to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
After Smarty Jones was led to stall 40 at the Pimlico Stakes barn, the traditional home of the Derby winner, assistant trainer Bill Foster said he's starting to get used to all the winning.
''Everybody gets beat eventually, but I hope he gets two more,'' Foster said. ''I really can't fathom what it would look like if somebody went by him.''
He's not alone.
''I hope we can get a little closer. I definitely think (Imperialism) has a chance,'' Mulhall said. ''But I don't know about beating Smarty.''
After Imperialism finished third behind Smarty in the Kentucky Derby, the plan was to return home to Hollywood Park and get ready for another run at the undefeated colt in the Belmont Stakes on June 5.
So much for planning. Imperialism was training great. Derby replays showed that the gutty gray colt had a tough trip. And owner Steve Taub and jockey Kent Desormeaux convinced the 21-year-old trainer her horse has a chance to win the 1 3-16th-mile Preakness on Saturday.
''Every professional athlete in history that I know has been beaten except Rocky Marciano,'' Taub said Wednesday outside Imperialism's barn at Pimlico. ''Secretariat lost. Man o' War lost. Seattle Slew lost.''
When it comes to Smarty Jones, though, Mulhall isn't so sure defeat is imminent.
Imperialism was strong at the end of the 1¼-mile Derby after being clipped by a horse on the first turn and slowed by another along the backstretch.
He finished six lengths behind the winner, but even if Imperialism's patented closing kick moved him close to the leader, Smarty Jones ''had another gear and would have taken off again,'' Mulhall said.
Smarty Jones ''looks like a really nice horse, and we're shortening up in distance,'' she said. ''So I don't know. We'll see what he's made of.''
A field of 11 3-year-olds was entered Wednesday, including Derby runner-up Lion Heart. The Cliff's Edge (fifth), Borrego (10th) and Song of the Sword (11th) are other Derby runners back for another shot.
Eddington and Rock Hard Ten, colts who missed the Derby because they didn't have enough graded-stakes earnings, top the new challengers. Eddington was third in the Wood Memorial; Rock Hard Ten finished second in the Santa Anita Derby but was disqualified to third for interference.
The newcomers are Derby Trial winner Sir Shackleton, Tesio Stakes winner Water Cannon, and Little Matth Man, another Philly Park-based colt who finished seventh in the Wood.
Smarty Jones opened as the 8-5 morning-line favorite, with Lion Heart at 3-1, and Imperialism at 5-1. Rock Hard Ten was 6-1, The Cliff's Edge 8-1, Borrego 15-1 and Sir Shackleton, Song of the Sword, Water Cannon and Little Matth Man all 30-1.
The post position draw was later Wednesday.
Mulhall isn't the only rival trainer impressed with Smarty Jones.
Patrick Biancone, who handles Lion Heart, watched Smarty Jones train at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky., the week before the Derby.
''He's exceptional,'' Biancone said. ''I think it showed in the Derby. There's no question he's a champion.''
Nick Zito didn't sound optimistic, either, especially after The Cliff's Edge developed a sore right front foot after a Wednesday morning jog. The trainer said he'll decide Thursday whether the colt will run. Zito also trains Sir Shackleton.
''The only things you think about is stay the course, do what you're supposed to do here, and hopefully they both come with their good races,'' Zito said. ''This Smarty Jones, I think he's a very good horse.''
Smarty Jones arrived by van from Philly Park on Wednesday after a 10-day lovefest. One day, 5,000 fans showed up to watch Smarty gallop.
On Monday, Oaklawn Park owner Charles Cella presented the colt's owners with a $5 million bonus check for Smarty's sweep of the Rebel Stakes, Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby. Another $5 million bonus is on the line if Smarty Jones wins the Preakness and Belmont to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
After Smarty Jones was led to stall 40 at the Pimlico Stakes barn, the traditional home of the Derby winner, assistant trainer Bill Foster said he's starting to get used to all the winning.
''Everybody gets beat eventually, but I hope he gets two more,'' Foster said. ''I really can't fathom what it would look like if somebody went by him.''
He's not alone.
''I hope we can get a little closer. I definitely think (Imperialism) has a chance,'' Mulhall said. ''But I don't know about beating Smarty.''
In horse racing, on any given day, anything can happen like a bad break from the gate, the horse doesn't take to the track surface, the horse bleeds, loses a shoe, the jockey makes poor judgment in positioning the horse, etc. That being said, if there is none of the above, and there is no additional speed added to this race, Lion Heart should once again set a controlled pace with Smarty Jones sitting right behind him. Either could win depending on the fractions. This race looks like it could very much end up with the same result as the Derby or reverse order of the top two. Since the field is small, exacta boxes with these two and using all other horses in the third spot for trifectas is a possibility as well. Pace makes the race and without additional speed or something strange occuring, look for a two horse race.
OMT,I agree that would be the logical play,but those two are gonna be bet way down.So unless you play an exacta cold,probably not worth the risk.Smarty Jones is a damn good horse and on paper looks hard to beat.However he is a 3 year old.He is due to put up a bad race.May happen here or may happen in the Belmont.Usually the Belmont sets up better for an upset.However I can't bet a horse who will probably be around 6-5.So I am gonna look elsewhere.Also at a quick glance there appears to be more early speed in this race.Will no more after a close look.
Preakness 129 Field
Purse: $1,000,000 added; 1 3/16 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1. Lion Heart M. Smith P. Biancone 3-1
2. Borrego V. Espinoza B. Greely 15-1
3. Little Matth Man R. Migliore M. Ciresa 50-1
4. The Cliff's Edge S. Sellers N. Zito 8-1
5. Song of the Sword J. Chavez J Pedersen 30-1
6. Sir Shackleton R. Bejarano N. Zito 30-1
7. Smarty Jones S. Elliott J. Servis 8-5
8. Imperialism K. Desormeaux K. Mulhall 5-1
9. Eddington J. Bailey M. Hennig 8-1
10. Rock Hard Ten G. Stevens J. Orman 6-1
11. Water Cannon R. Fogelsonger L. Albert 30-1
Purse: $1,000,000 added; 1 3/16 miles
Post Horse Jockey Trainer M/L Odds
1. Lion Heart M. Smith P. Biancone 3-1
2. Borrego V. Espinoza B. Greely 15-1
3. Little Matth Man R. Migliore M. Ciresa 50-1
4. The Cliff's Edge S. Sellers N. Zito 8-1
5. Song of the Sword J. Chavez J Pedersen 30-1
6. Sir Shackleton R. Bejarano N. Zito 30-1
7. Smarty Jones S. Elliott J. Servis 8-5
8. Imperialism K. Desormeaux K. Mulhall 5-1
9. Eddington J. Bailey M. Hennig 8-1
10. Rock Hard Ten G. Stevens J. Orman 6-1
11. Water Cannon R. Fogelsonger L. Albert 30-1
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by wilheim:
Preakness field breakdown by ESPN's Ed McNamara:
SMARTY JONES
It's kind of tough to knock a colt that's 7-for-7 and just dominated the Kentucky Derby. But if you didn't have him at 4-1 in Louisville, why hop on the bandwagon now and accept 8-5 or lower in Baltimore? The people's horse has run three consecutive career tops, and sooner or later he'll regress. As his trainer, John Servis, told the Daily Racing Form: "Horses are not machines. He's going to tail off eventually. When? I can't tell you." If he wins and goes for the Triple Crown, a great saga will roll on. I won't be betting on him, though, unless he's 5-2 or better, which is most unlikely.
LION HEART
Top-class front-runner will be gunning from the gate again. I think the sloppy, speed-favoring track on Derby Day carried this brilliant colt a bit farther than he wants to go, and I don't think he's a 1?-mile animal. He should get pressure up front this time, and I wonder how he'll handle it. Could be the underlay of the race, but he should lead at least until the top of the stretch. Never been worse than second, and that record may be in jeopardy.
IMPERIALISM
Kristin Mulhall has done a terrific job with this overachiever, who clunked up late to be a non-threatening third in the Derby. Did he stay the distance or just dislike the off track less than those behind him? Since he has three in-the-money finishes in five starts on wet tracks, I think the surface had more to do with his completing the trifecta. Originally was going to skip the Preakness, but Mulhall persuaded owner Steve Taub to go. He's winless beyond a mile on fast tracks, and I think he'll be an underlay that finishes off the board.
BORREGO
Plodder is 0-for-4 in graded stakes and looks like the type who could slip into the triple or maybe even the exacta if the pace is hot and he gets a dream trip. Had no chance coming from far back at Churchill, and he's better than what he showed. If he's 12-1 or more, he's worth using in exotics, but I'd be amazed if he won the Preakness.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
The excuse horse of the Derby, this deep closer lost two front shoes, had traffic trouble and still managed to run fifth. Will he be overbet or ignored? If he's 5-1 or so, he may offer value. Unfortunately, the wise guys may gravitate toward him and make his odds lower than I'd want to take. On a fast track with a contested, fast pace to run at, he could win. He was the morning-line Derby favorite off his very impressive Blue Grass win, and a major bounce-back would be no surprise.
EDDINGTON
If he'd gotten into the Derby, I was going to pick him, but his low graded-stakes earnings kept him out. Maybe missing the race was the best thing that could have happened to him. He's been working very well at Belmont Park and he has the pedigree to love the 1 3/16-mile distance. He's never been out of the money but is 0-for-2 in graded stakes and has run erratically at times. Negative: With Jerry Bailey riding, he may get more action than he should. At 6-1 or better, I'll be interested in betting him, and he belongs in your exotics.
ROCK HARD TEN
You could hang out in paddocks for the next 10 years and never see a more impressive physical specimen than this colt. If they did a movie about Pegasus, the winged horse of Greek mythology, this mega-stud would be the model. He's been a buzz horse in California since before his career debut Feb. 7, and he hasn't done much wrong. Unfortunately, he's run only three times and almost certainly will get more play than he should. Like Eddington, he didn't get into the Derby because of a problem with graded-stakes earnings, which undoubtedly was a blessing. I expect big things from him down the road, but weigh his price at Pimlico with the risk/reward angle.
WATER CANNON
Every year a few locally based horses with no credentials pop up in the Preakness, and this no-hoper comes straight from central casting. Trained by Maryland regular Linda Albert, he needed seven starts to break his maiden against lousy fields. He won a very weak 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio Stakes last month at Pimlico, so here he is. Doesn't belong with the best of his generation, and I hope he doesn't get in anyone's way and compromise a contender's chances. No figures and no chance.
LITTLE MATTH MAN
Deep closer ran seventh in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct after plunking up for third in the quirky Lane's End at Turfway. He's in way over his head here, with one win in 10 tries on fast tracks. Would need lots of rain to have any chance to finish in the top half of the field. I hope he stays home.
PREACHINATTHEBAR
Bob Baffert pulled him out of the Derby because he wasn't showing enough in his workouts at Churchill. Stalker has enough tactical speed to be near the pace but shouldn't concern you if you like Lion Heart. He's only 1-for-4 in stakes and can't be considered a serious threat in top company. Even Baffert's Triple Crown wizardry won't help this one.
SIR SHACKLETON
If Nick Zito enters this speedy winner of the mile Derby Trial, it will be as a rabbit for stablemate The Cliff's Edge. He has enough early foot to put heat on Lion Heart and might affect the pace dynamic, but he can't win.
Typically, the Preakness winner makes its move from just off the pace or from midpack and raced in the Kentucky Derby. In the past 20 runnings, only one winner (Louis Quatorze, 1996) went wire to wire, and only one had skipped the Derby (Red Bullet, 2000).
Since 1984, here's the profile of the horses that won the big one at Pimlico: Derby winner: 7 Beaten Derby favorite: 5 Third or worse in Derby, and not the Derby favorite: 7 Skipped the Derby: 1 Here's an obvious angle that has worked in five of the past 20 Preaknesses, though not since 1998: Box the Derby exacta at Pimlico. Of course, no self-respecting wise guy will tout a box of Smarty Jones and Lion Heart this Saturday, but it might be a wise saver play. Here's my horse-by-horse analysis of the Preakness.
Info in other Preakness thread.
http://forum.therx.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=988094022&m=630103041
wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Servis actually sounds smart. What an aberration for a trainer.
Preakness field breakdown by ESPN's Ed McNamara:
SMARTY JONES
It's kind of tough to knock a colt that's 7-for-7 and just dominated the Kentucky Derby. But if you didn't have him at 4-1 in Louisville, why hop on the bandwagon now and accept 8-5 or lower in Baltimore? The people's horse has run three consecutive career tops, and sooner or later he'll regress. As his trainer, John Servis, told the Daily Racing Form: "Horses are not machines. He's going to tail off eventually. When? I can't tell you." If he wins and goes for the Triple Crown, a great saga will roll on. I won't be betting on him, though, unless he's 5-2 or better, which is most unlikely.
LION HEART
Top-class front-runner will be gunning from the gate again. I think the sloppy, speed-favoring track on Derby Day carried this brilliant colt a bit farther than he wants to go, and I don't think he's a 1?-mile animal. He should get pressure up front this time, and I wonder how he'll handle it. Could be the underlay of the race, but he should lead at least until the top of the stretch. Never been worse than second, and that record may be in jeopardy.
IMPERIALISM
Kristin Mulhall has done a terrific job with this overachiever, who clunked up late to be a non-threatening third in the Derby. Did he stay the distance or just dislike the off track less than those behind him? Since he has three in-the-money finishes in five starts on wet tracks, I think the surface had more to do with his completing the trifecta. Originally was going to skip the Preakness, but Mulhall persuaded owner Steve Taub to go. He's winless beyond a mile on fast tracks, and I think he'll be an underlay that finishes off the board.
BORREGO
Plodder is 0-for-4 in graded stakes and looks like the type who could slip into the triple or maybe even the exacta if the pace is hot and he gets a dream trip. Had no chance coming from far back at Churchill, and he's better than what he showed. If he's 12-1 or more, he's worth using in exotics, but I'd be amazed if he won the Preakness.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE
The excuse horse of the Derby, this deep closer lost two front shoes, had traffic trouble and still managed to run fifth. Will he be overbet or ignored? If he's 5-1 or so, he may offer value. Unfortunately, the wise guys may gravitate toward him and make his odds lower than I'd want to take. On a fast track with a contested, fast pace to run at, he could win. He was the morning-line Derby favorite off his very impressive Blue Grass win, and a major bounce-back would be no surprise.
EDDINGTON
If he'd gotten into the Derby, I was going to pick him, but his low graded-stakes earnings kept him out. Maybe missing the race was the best thing that could have happened to him. He's been working very well at Belmont Park and he has the pedigree to love the 1 3/16-mile distance. He's never been out of the money but is 0-for-2 in graded stakes and has run erratically at times. Negative: With Jerry Bailey riding, he may get more action than he should. At 6-1 or better, I'll be interested in betting him, and he belongs in your exotics.
ROCK HARD TEN
You could hang out in paddocks for the next 10 years and never see a more impressive physical specimen than this colt. If they did a movie about Pegasus, the winged horse of Greek mythology, this mega-stud would be the model. He's been a buzz horse in California since before his career debut Feb. 7, and he hasn't done much wrong. Unfortunately, he's run only three times and almost certainly will get more play than he should. Like Eddington, he didn't get into the Derby because of a problem with graded-stakes earnings, which undoubtedly was a blessing. I expect big things from him down the road, but weigh his price at Pimlico with the risk/reward angle.
WATER CANNON
Every year a few locally based horses with no credentials pop up in the Preakness, and this no-hoper comes straight from central casting. Trained by Maryland regular Linda Albert, he needed seven starts to break his maiden against lousy fields. He won a very weak 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio Stakes last month at Pimlico, so here he is. Doesn't belong with the best of his generation, and I hope he doesn't get in anyone's way and compromise a contender's chances. No figures and no chance.
LITTLE MATTH MAN
Deep closer ran seventh in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct after plunking up for third in the quirky Lane's End at Turfway. He's in way over his head here, with one win in 10 tries on fast tracks. Would need lots of rain to have any chance to finish in the top half of the field. I hope he stays home.
PREACHINATTHEBAR
Bob Baffert pulled him out of the Derby because he wasn't showing enough in his workouts at Churchill. Stalker has enough tactical speed to be near the pace but shouldn't concern you if you like Lion Heart. He's only 1-for-4 in stakes and can't be considered a serious threat in top company. Even Baffert's Triple Crown wizardry won't help this one.
SIR SHACKLETON
If Nick Zito enters this speedy winner of the mile Derby Trial, it will be as a rabbit for stablemate The Cliff's Edge. He has enough early foot to put heat on Lion Heart and might affect the pace dynamic, but he can't win.
Typically, the Preakness winner makes its move from just off the pace or from midpack and raced in the Kentucky Derby. In the past 20 runnings, only one winner (Louis Quatorze, 1996) went wire to wire, and only one had skipped the Derby (Red Bullet, 2000).
Since 1984, here's the profile of the horses that won the big one at Pimlico: Derby winner: 7 Beaten Derby favorite: 5 Third or worse in Derby, and not the Derby favorite: 7 Skipped the Derby: 1 Here's an obvious angle that has worked in five of the past 20 Preaknesses, though not since 1998: Box the Derby exacta at Pimlico. Of course, no self-respecting wise guy will tout a box of Smarty Jones and Lion Heart this Saturday, but it might be a wise saver play. Here's my horse-by-horse analysis of the Preakness.
Info in other Preakness thread.
http://forum.therx.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=988094022&m=630103041
wil.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Servis actually sounds smart. What an aberration for a trainer.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by trytrytry:
this just looks too easy like may Preakness stakes. Lion Heart and Smarty Jones in an Exacta Box. first and second at every call after the 1/2 mile. I think Lion HEart has a shot at the top spot on a fast track lets see!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I agree trytry
its the EASY looking part that scares me...but if he gets an easy rail trip...the xtra distance might not matter if the track is dry and fast
this just looks too easy like may Preakness stakes. Lion Heart and Smarty Jones in an Exacta Box. first and second at every call after the 1/2 mile. I think Lion HEart has a shot at the top spot on a fast track lets see!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I agree trytry
its the EASY looking part that scares me...but if he gets an easy rail trip...the xtra distance might not matter if the track is dry and fast
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Dante:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by trytrytry:
this just looks too easy like may Preakness stakes. Lion Heart and Smarty Jones in an Exacta Box. first and second at every call after the 1/2 mile. I think Lion HEart has a shot at the top spot on a fast track lets see!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I agree trytry
its the EASY looking part that scares me...but if he gets an easy rail trip...the xtra distance might not matter if the track is dry and fast<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Dante:
What extra distance are you referring to?
VVV
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by trytrytry:
this just looks too easy like may Preakness stakes. Lion Heart and Smarty Jones in an Exacta Box. first and second at every call after the 1/2 mile. I think Lion HEart has a shot at the top spot on a fast track lets see!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE> I agree trytry
its the EASY looking part that scares me...but if he gets an easy rail trip...the xtra distance might not matter if the track is dry and fast<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Dante:
What extra distance are you referring to?
VVV
