Some are obvious: the Oscars, the Emmys, the Golden Globes and their ilk, all of which get covered by the mainstream media in terms of oddsmaking (3-1 on Sean Penn to win Best Actor, and so forth). But some people will bet on anything and everything, including TV series like "Idol," "Survivor," "The Bachelor" and the like. To get a sense of this peculiar business, All TV rang up Simon Noble , the CEO of World Wide Tele-Sports, an offshore betting parlor based in Antigua.
Noble said the mainstream media didn't get hip to wagering on TV shows until 1980, when CBS ended a season of "Dallas" by shooting J.R. Ewing and then waiting several months to reveal the shooter's identity. Since then, oddsmaking has become a part of entertainment coverage, especially coverage of programs that have a strong element of competition, strategy or chance.
"People will bet on just about anything," Noble said. "We had a number of bets a few years ago on whether Claudia Schiffer would have a boy or a girl."
Noble said the majority of wagerers are people who would be betting on sports events anyway and who bet on TV series purely for variety. One such series is HBO's "The Sopranos," which inspires regular speculation on which characters are likely to get whacked. Noble says "Sopranos" bettors are mainly men who already bet on sports.
This season, mob fiancée- turned-FBI informant Adrianna LaCerva ( Drea de Matteo ) is considered most likely to rest in peace (2-1) with Tony Blundetto, the law-abiding ex-felon turned relapsed criminal played by Steve Buscemi , coming in second at 3-1.
Other people bet on TV shows exclusively, and many of them concentrate their energy (and money) on a particular series. "American Idol" is a favorite, and right now Noble says it's a two- way race between R & B divas Fantasia Barrino and LaToya London . "Eighty percent of all money placed with us has been placed with those two," said Noble.
Gamblers are quite interested in so-called "reality" series of all types. But traditional production methods make their bets problematic, says Noble. Most reality series are taped months ahead of their broadcast, which leaves ample opportunity for insiders to place wagers that contaminate the process.
Noble said his company closed wagers on "Survivor: Pearl Is land" before the series even hit air, thanks to a suspicious cluster of bets placed before the first episode premiered. Noble's staff thought it odd that a group of five people based in Burbank, Calif., would wager $33,000 on a particular person to win before the season had even begun.
Noble closed betting on the series because the whole thing smelled fishy, and did not reopen betting for "Survivor: All Stars."
"A lot of betting is based on having insider information," Noble said. "If you have a tip that Barry Bonds isn't going to start against the Mets, well, you use that information and bet on the Mets."
On the other hand, says Noble, "If we suspect something is up and we don't do anything about it, it doesn't reflect well on us. Shows like 'Idol' are much better for us because they air live. Shows taped in advance sit around for months, and there's plenty of opportunity for the outcome to sneak out."
Noble's staff assigns odds to particular outcomes by trolling for facts and rumors on Internet chat rooms. While doing research before the first season of "Survivor," for instance, they discovered that eventual winner Rich ard Hatch had a million-dollar lawsuit against him. "We figured that if there was a million-dollar lawsuit against a guy competing on a show with a million-dollar top prize, the person who filed the suit must know he had a million dollars. We put two and two together and made Hatch the favorite."
N.J.Com.
Noble said the mainstream media didn't get hip to wagering on TV shows until 1980, when CBS ended a season of "Dallas" by shooting J.R. Ewing and then waiting several months to reveal the shooter's identity. Since then, oddsmaking has become a part of entertainment coverage, especially coverage of programs that have a strong element of competition, strategy or chance.
"People will bet on just about anything," Noble said. "We had a number of bets a few years ago on whether Claudia Schiffer would have a boy or a girl."
Noble said the majority of wagerers are people who would be betting on sports events anyway and who bet on TV series purely for variety. One such series is HBO's "The Sopranos," which inspires regular speculation on which characters are likely to get whacked. Noble says "Sopranos" bettors are mainly men who already bet on sports.
This season, mob fiancée- turned-FBI informant Adrianna LaCerva ( Drea de Matteo ) is considered most likely to rest in peace (2-1) with Tony Blundetto, the law-abiding ex-felon turned relapsed criminal played by Steve Buscemi , coming in second at 3-1.
Other people bet on TV shows exclusively, and many of them concentrate their energy (and money) on a particular series. "American Idol" is a favorite, and right now Noble says it's a two- way race between R & B divas Fantasia Barrino and LaToya London . "Eighty percent of all money placed with us has been placed with those two," said Noble.
Gamblers are quite interested in so-called "reality" series of all types. But traditional production methods make their bets problematic, says Noble. Most reality series are taped months ahead of their broadcast, which leaves ample opportunity for insiders to place wagers that contaminate the process.
Noble said his company closed wagers on "Survivor: Pearl Is land" before the series even hit air, thanks to a suspicious cluster of bets placed before the first episode premiered. Noble's staff thought it odd that a group of five people based in Burbank, Calif., would wager $33,000 on a particular person to win before the season had even begun.
Noble closed betting on the series because the whole thing smelled fishy, and did not reopen betting for "Survivor: All Stars."
"A lot of betting is based on having insider information," Noble said. "If you have a tip that Barry Bonds isn't going to start against the Mets, well, you use that information and bet on the Mets."
On the other hand, says Noble, "If we suspect something is up and we don't do anything about it, it doesn't reflect well on us. Shows like 'Idol' are much better for us because they air live. Shows taped in advance sit around for months, and there's plenty of opportunity for the outcome to sneak out."
Noble's staff assigns odds to particular outcomes by trolling for facts and rumors on Internet chat rooms. While doing research before the first season of "Survivor," for instance, they discovered that eventual winner Rich ard Hatch had a million-dollar lawsuit against him. "We figured that if there was a million-dollar lawsuit against a guy competing on a show with a million-dollar top prize, the person who filed the suit must know he had a million dollars. We put two and two together and made Hatch the favorite."
N.J.Com.
