Who thinks the LA Lakers will win it all this year?

crazyivan24 · Apr 26, 2004

If so,

which is a better wager...

LA Lakers to win it all as a future bet right now at Pinnacle at around +240ish...

or to wager the LA Lakers for rounds 2,3 and finals (using the double up system).

Where i wager for example $1000 to win $800 if they play the SPurs, then use the winnings plus the original stake on the preceeding rounds.

Just curious what people think about LAKERS winning it this year and the better strategy for the better value in terms of playoff wagering?

Ivan

Fezzik · Apr 26, 2004

Chunk bet on the "no" for me at -210, -230, -250. Along with multiple other guys.

Spurs will be clear favorite vs. LaLa in that series. Wolves would be a slight dog.

Oversimplifying: 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/4.

A Laker +240 bet would be pretty horrific considering two series bets would likely get you well over +240, AND they wouldn't even have to win the finals.

PO69 · Apr 26, 2004

No question about it, doubling up is the way to go. Even in the finals they will only be around -400 or so I think. Only because alot of crazy idiots will bet on the eastern c team

superstar · Apr 26, 2004

Go Kings!!!!!

Celica · Apr 26, 2004

Its the Pistons year , they are going alllll theee wayyyyyyy.

WildBill · Apr 26, 2004

I think +240 is close to the right price, but only because of the public bettors. Even though common sense says the Spurs should be favored, wouldn't surprise me at all if the number comes out Lakers -140. Last year the Spurs were almost in the same spot, home court and what appeared to be a superior team and the number came out Lakers -145. Have to figure that is public money driving that and if the Lakers do get by the Spurs, the public will just have that much more money in the pockets to further drive the line out of proportion.

If the math comes down:

-140*-170*-500 = +227

Add in the fact that they haven't won this series quite yet so a very minor upward adjustment can be added. So make your expected adjustments accordingly. I think with the public factors in mind those numbers might even be conservative. Now remember I don't back the theory of betting the Lakers to win, just that I think +240 is pretty reflective of what number you would get doing a series parlay.

SSI · Apr 26, 2004

there is no doubt that my money is on the spurs... i believe and will place my money that the spurs repeat..

BoZZi · Apr 26, 2004

Im a die hard kings fan but thinking gambling wise i think the spurs have the best shot at winning it all.

i think kings get to the finals and give the spurs a tough series, if they get back to playing the way they know kings will win it.....but will they?

RIOSHILL · Apr 26, 2004

Spurs look unstoppable. They really should be favored vs. the Lakers.

crazyivan24 · Apr 26, 2004

thnaks for your input guys.

guess I'm the only idiot who thinks the Lakers will win..

But there is a mix feeling on whether the 'doubling up theory' is better then the futures wager?!?!

RIOSHILL · Apr 26, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by CrAzY Jivin' IvaN:
thnaks for your input guys.

guess I'm the only idiot who thinks the Lakers will win..

But there is a mix feeling on whether the 'doubling up theory' is better then the futures wager?!?!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I have heard from some very sharp people that the juice on most futures is so high that you are better off betting each series individually. I am sure, however, if you find some wacky future # that you should grab it. If not, merely bet each series and you should do well.

crazyivan24 · Apr 26, 2004

where's sick gambler when you need his input?!!?

RPM · Apr 26, 2004

i hope not.

deadon · Apr 26, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Rio Shill:
Spurs look unstoppable. They really should be favored vs. the Lakers.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>Are you nuts? Look who the spurs beat first round a shitty memphis team, lakers will kick ass easy

wilheim · Apr 26, 2004

If Memphis is "shitty" what does that make Houston (lakers opponet)? Memphis won 50 games while Houston won 45 this year in the regular season.

wil.

deadon · Apr 26, 2004

houston matched up good against the laker with ming to guard shaq but who on the spurs will guard him?

wilheim · Apr 26, 2004

You can say the same thing about Tim Duncan, who will handle him the Mailman?

wil.

WildBill · Apr 26, 2004

Nesterovic and Malik Rose are decent options on Shaq, certainly not Yao but no one really has foolproof Shaq defense. Last year it was the Admiral and he really couldn't keep up for more than 15 minutes a game. Key thing between the teams is Bowen on Kobe. Mobley and Jackson try hard, but they aren't defenders like Bowen. And Parker continues to improve on the D-side and his size won't be exploited by Payton. I think the Lakers have it a lot tougher this year. One thing they did get in the past is the open jumpers for the role guys, but Fox is looking horrible, George isn't consistent and Fisher doesn't get much time on the court. I keep saying it, the Lakers won three titles with the role players, now they are trying to win it without much help from them. Just think without Horry's miracle ending or Shaw's big energy boost against the Blazers this team might be still sitting at one title.

Celaya · Apr 26, 2004

As much as I am a Laker fan living here in L.A., Don't forget Shaq can't hit free throws like he did last year when he shot 60%. Spurs might do hack a shaq and can use several fouls with willis, rose, duncan,nesterovic. I think shaq is shooting something like 25% in his last 100 free throws and this could haunt them come crunch time. I still look for this series to be very close but think Spurs will win in 7 games.

crazyivan24 · Apr 26, 2004

interesting input guys...

Who thinks the LA Lakers will win it all this year?

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