Have been having a few good days and am up about 2k for the weekend...was thinking about laying it on a 2 team parlay lakers and spurs on the moneyline.. it comes out to about -200...you guys think its a stupid bet? i see spurs in another blowout and cant see the lakers game being close again..any thoughts? thanks
Classic example of why the hold percentage in Vegas books is 6.5%.
You are looking to play on home teams that won game won in game2 (a terrible subset). Further, you are looking to play MLS where the vig spreads are atrocious, and they give the business to the favorite bettors. Thirdly, you are parlaying the two preventing you from shopping for value on the individual bets.
We are going to have to struggle to find a worse bet.
You are looking to play on home teams that won game won in game2 (a terrible subset). Further, you are looking to play MLS where the vig spreads are atrocious, and they give the business to the favorite bettors. Thirdly, you are parlaying the two preventing you from shopping for value on the individual bets.
We are going to have to struggle to find a worse bet.
No offense but yes, seems stupid to me since you asked. How did you make the 2k, is that bet type done? Second, just because you made 2K is required to make a bet the next day. Third, you have 2 lay heavy, need both results, cannot hedge. Fourth, Lakers inspired zero confidence in me, probably none in themselves and probably made Rockets think they can win tonight, as they should have won last game, or at least were in position to do so. You ever seen a dead body at a crime scene, it is outlined in chalk. Disclaimer, I am not saying you are stupid, but I would exercise caution here. Stick with what got you the money. If that is it, I wish you the best. OF
vegasisdead,
It doesn't matter if it is a parlay on Michael Schumaker over Steve Park in a F1 race tied with the Indy Colts over the Chicago Cubs in a football game. It is not wise wagering to risk 4X your average wager on one play. Don't look at it like a get rich quick business. It is not.
Good luck
It doesn't matter if it is a parlay on Michael Schumaker over Steve Park in a F1 race tied with the Indy Colts over the Chicago Cubs in a football game. It is not wise wagering to risk 4X your average wager on one play. Don't look at it like a get rich quick business. It is not.
Good luck
More information then I knew before. Did not realize you were willing to risk the entire 2K, and you never bet parlays. It is too difficult to respond without being totally offensive. Fezzik is right on one I missed, gaps on $L and the shade is on the chalk. To be blunt, if you did this consistently, sign up with a book that has a bonus rebate on losses. That is one bonus OMNIVOROUS FROG has never taken in, nor have ever asked about one, as I do not like negative expectations. I can't even say I would pass, because I would never even consider that a bet. Scary. Best Wishes...OF
I'll respectfully echo previous Replies and remind you that just by placing any two Events in a parlay, you further shave percentage points off the return price. This in addition to your candidates being ML favorites equals out to very bad math result.
Oh, the secondary question of, "Should I place 3-4 times my normal size wager?" is better answered by asking how much of a risk taker you are.
Oh, the secondary question of, "Should I place 3-4 times my normal size wager?" is better answered by asking how much of a risk taker you are.
More tough love coming.
Vegasisdead is receptive to the thread, but says only "I will probably pass".
My frustration stems from the fact that I have tried to help guys like Vegas in the past, but they typically don't alter their way of playing.
Hopefully, Vegasisdead is the exception.
[This message was edited by Fezzik on April 19, 2004 at 09:23 PM.]
Vegasisdead is receptive to the thread, but says only "I will probably pass".
My frustration stems from the fact that I have tried to help guys like Vegas in the past, but they typically don't alter their way of playing.
Hopefully, Vegasisdead is the exception.
[This message was edited by Fezzik on April 19, 2004 at 09:23 PM.]
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Fezzik:
More tough love coming.
Vegasisdead is receptive to the thread, but says only "I will probably pass".
To draw an anology: You are playing chess and ask Bobby Fisher if you should play your queen out. He says "Nononono!".
It is mind boggling that any logical (or even mildly crazy) person would STILL consider that move, and say "I probably won't play that move" instead of saying "What a blunder! Thanks for getting me off that one, and explaining why!"<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, how exactly do you want him to say it? If he said : "Thank you, thank you, thank you, Oh Great Fezzik", would that make you happy? He said he'd probably take your advice - doesn't mean he has to kiss your ass.
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By the way, I don't know how much betting you actually do offshore, but this statement of yours is wrong:
"Further, you are looking to play MLS where the vig spreads are atrocious, "
The truth is, except for a very few books like Canbet and the V/O Group, almost every reputable offshore book has a lower hold (vig) on their Moneylines than they do on their football/basketball pointspreads and totals.
Maybe it's the case in Vegas .... but offshore, some of your lowest-vig bets are Moneyline bets.
[This message was edited by Halifax on April 19, 2004 at 04:42 PM.]
More tough love coming.
Vegasisdead is receptive to the thread, but says only "I will probably pass".
To draw an anology: You are playing chess and ask Bobby Fisher if you should play your queen out. He says "Nononono!".
It is mind boggling that any logical (or even mildly crazy) person would STILL consider that move, and say "I probably won't play that move" instead of saying "What a blunder! Thanks for getting me off that one, and explaining why!"<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Well, how exactly do you want him to say it? If he said : "Thank you, thank you, thank you, Oh Great Fezzik", would that make you happy? He said he'd probably take your advice - doesn't mean he has to kiss your ass.
-------------------------------------------
By the way, I don't know how much betting you actually do offshore, but this statement of yours is wrong:
"Further, you are looking to play MLS where the vig spreads are atrocious, "
The truth is, except for a very few books like Canbet and the V/O Group, almost every reputable offshore book has a lower hold (vig) on their Moneylines than they do on their football/basketball pointspreads and totals.
Maybe it's the case in Vegas .... but offshore, some of your lowest-vig bets are Moneyline bets.
[This message was edited by Halifax on April 19, 2004 at 04:42 PM.]
Yes, some MLS are the best, but in this case you are looking at a 50 cent gap on Lakes and a $1 plus on the Spurs. Probably 75% of that gap is shade on fave, so you are paying the premiums of premiums, 4 to 5 times the juice on the number. Big chalk is where MLS really lose value. I must admit I expected him to say something different. Just trying to help the poor guy out. Gave him the benefit of the doubt because if you post that bet in question, it might take you sometime to digest the arguments against, when you were for it. I am glad he asked. Best Wishes...OF
Fezzik, it's to be assumed vegas asked a sincere question---it's not necessary (or polite) to hammer his ass about it. At the very least your last sentence (We are going to have to struggle to find a worse bet.) could've been omitted. Not everyone understands lines as well as you do, there is no reason to be nasty to the uneducated.
