Is it time to stop betting MLB overs yet ?

postaldoug · Apr 17, 2004

It seems the unders are starting to take over now. Is it too soon to start thinking about being more cautious with the overs ?

Doug

WildBill · Apr 17, 2004

Early in the season I never bet totals because we always go through this. Either scoring is down or scoring is up and everyone asks what is going on. Then things settle down, the bettors and hence the lines adjust and you get a pretty fair distribution by mid-May. Same thing for a handful of teams, although with the lack of parity there have been fewer surprises and disappointments in recent years. You don't have teams coming out of nowhere as much as you used to, that is now left for the NFL.

wilheim · Apr 18, 2004

FWIW - Last years best Over and Under pitchers in MLB.

Overs - Randy Wolf - Phillies - 33 starts - 22 overs - 9 unders.

Unders - Tim Redding - Astros - 33 starts - 24 unders - 7 overs.

wil.

FairWarning · Apr 18, 2004

It is amazing how many people here bet OVER on 9.5. It is not likely that the final score will land on 10, and you eliminated all one-run games.

areeff · Apr 18, 2004

you mean all 1 run games under 9.. If i was to bet o 9.5 i'd definitely parlay it with the RL

WildBill · Apr 18, 2004

Good points for the parlays, but MLB has most games end at least 2 runs from the total. In NHL these considerations are extremely important with so many games ending up right at or near the total, but I think they are merely secondary in MLB.

jwblue · Apr 18, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by FairWarning:
It is amazing how many people here bet OVER on 9.5. It is not likely that the final score will land on 10, and you eliminated all one-run games.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Can someone explain why this is true?

IS

JohnnyDetroit+ · Apr 18, 2004

if you look back the past few years, after the 5th game or so it starts to level out.

FairWarning · Apr 18, 2004

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by InSpades:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by FairWarning:
It is amazing how many people here bet OVER on 9.5. It is not likely that the final score will land on 10, and you eliminated all one-run games.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Can someone explain why this is true?

I usually bet UNDER on all odd totals and OVER on even totals. If I like the home team with a stud pitcher going, the under has a better chance of hitting and I feel the lines reflect this. I feel the overs are a higher percentage with the road team. Just the way I play.

Haven't checked yet (I'll try to do it this week) but there a lot more games landing on 9 than 10.

IS<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>